When markets go down, bearish fundamental stories come out. I look at it from a contrary perspective and when I read bearish stories on the British Pound, I quickly flip to the COT reports to see if the COT report supports any of the bearish rhetoric. Take a quick look below and as the commercial traders see a rosy picture, while the speculators follow the crowd and believe the bearish BS! In early 2017 the British Pound hit a major bottom and has since been holding. It sure looks like a wave 2 correction has completed, with the next wave 1-2 also completed.
This is also where I use the 1-2 wave count and since I’m at an Intermediate degree bottom, I can only have 2 lower degree extensions. It might be a bit early for Minor degree wave 1-2 to be completed, but that can be easily adjusted. I’m sure some diagonal wave structures will be thrown in to keep us guessing, but when this bullish phase does something different, it will force a review each and every time.
This is the simple British Pind COT report where the commercials sure are looking bullish to me. Those are net long positions, while the speculators are bearish. Speculators are chasing the perceived trend and always get into a trap. Look into the past and we can see major shifts in positions and I would not look for a bearish wave count until the commercials start to turn net short again, or at least close to it. Are the COT reports classified as “Fundamentals”? With the EWP, all sentiment readings are important as they make charts go up and down.
The mainstream media always quote the speculators like they are the experts, but the commercial hedgers are a different group, as they deal more with people closest to the industry.
To help confirm this bullish trend, then higher highs, and higher lows must form.