Brent crude crashed late last year and until it soars far past the October 2018 high, Brent crude is still in a bear market. Any rally can get all the investors excited again, but I turn bearish when markets become saturated with bullish news!
I’m sure investors are swamped with fundamental news but history shows that markets do the exact opposite. Remember “Peak Oil”? Oil was forecast to go to $200-$300 after which oil crashed to $34. The experts were spewing fundamental bullish rhetoric, yet they were caught in a bull trap as the oil price imploded.
Now a storm is causing disruptions but that is nothing new as it happens every year. When something like oil refuses to go higher under bullish news, then any bullish run can crash into a brick wall and reverse.
I have painted a wedge and it looks like Brent may hit the top trend line but it can also do the opposite and hit the bottom trend line first! Oil can crash much faster than it can go up as there are “No” daily trading limits in commodities. Fear can drive markets much faster than what “Greed” will ever do.