Yesterday Cryptos suffered another down day with all Cryptos seeing red! Last week the Bitcoin price level did not hold as the bears are still firmly in control.
The thing is you can’t blame the short sellers as you need a long established market to get that far which no Crypto has done yet. Since early January the Crypto world has been in a bear market and there is no end in sight at this time. Bitcoin has a lot further to sink and soon we will be up against that magic $6000 number, and another huge double bottom. The majority of investors doesn’t know what a bear market is and they sure don’t know the difference between investing and speculation. Bitcoin has no established cycle patterns except for one big move up and now close to a 3 month trip down.
Many Bitcoin investors think they are smart, but since when is the crowd smart enough to know how to invest in a crashing asset class? By “April Fools Day” Bitcoin will be starting its fourth month in a bear market. One metric I use to see this bear market, is by tracking the total capital space. This peak capital base ended at about $814 billion USD! On Thursday this number dipped to $256 Billion. At this time $558 billion US of investors’ money, has evaporated into thin air! This is a clear signal that the majority of Crypto investors has been losing money since 2018 started.
One other metric I use is the amount and rate that new ICOs are being issued. In a full week, this works out to an average of just under 20 per week, and by early April we would have 1600 ICOs ready and willing to steal investors’ money!
When investors lose money, then the first thing they do is point the finger of blame at anybody else except themselves. . It’s never the stupid investors buying at “Mania” tops that get the blame, but the experts can dig up all sorts of reasons why Cryptos have been crashing. Wall Street is good at inventing financial instruments, as the 2007-2009 market crash clearly demonstrated! Remember all the toxic mortgage investments they came up with during that time?
I will only talk about the top three Cryptos with Ripple being the third on my list. Match up the green spike pointing straight up and then the green spike now heading down. Clearly late 2017 was not a good choice to start investing in Ripple as many charts look like this, with some even traveling sideways. Out of 1594 Cryptos, chances are good you will not find a single coin that is still in a bull market in 2018!
Updated March, 31, 2018
The exchange has created a Cash Bitcoin chart (BGY00) which due to its lack of volume has very light lines. This may fill out better in time, but I can use this chart to track the longer term moves. X marks the “unknown” top after which a steady decline has started. This is also a good time to use three parallel trend lines with the middle trend line tracking one degree lower turns. The real top of this chart is only $19,300 which is not a big deal as we will find discrepancies between all Bitcoin charts, when we look hard enough.
I use the X wave as an unknown wave top, which could have ended on a “C” wave peak. (Inverted zigzag) Bitcoin is still a bit above that $6000 bottom, but technically Bitcoin prices should fall well below $6000. Another wave 3-4 and 5 in Minute degree still needs to be completed. As I have said a few times, I see “no” real bottom yet in this Bitcoin freefall. I Have to stress that it’s not just Bitcoin that’s in a bear market, but “ALL” Cryptos are as well, after the 2017 peak.
By the time Bitcoin prices falls to the center line, this $6000 price level will get left in the dust. Even after the 5 waves in Minute degree have completed, it doesn’t mean some mythical bull market in Bitcoin is going to happen. For about 3 months all Crypto investors have been losing money so this will continue unabated. Even after the entire 5 waves down in Minor degree has completed, it does not mean that Bitcoin prices will suddenly turn back into a bull market.
Bitcoin prices could slowly start to flat line just like Tulip prices made after February, 1637. That month all the Tulip buyers never showed up at their exchange, much like Bitcoin buyers have done in early 2018!