Does it look like Barrick is in a bull market? That’s what the wavers claim and what gold investors believe. Only the metal gold has had an upward path, while all other gold related assets have been pointing down. The wild bullish phase that started in late 2015 soared well into mid 2016 before ABX started to decline again. Since the 2011 peak ABX has been in a 5 wave diagonal decline, that is very common but they are all connected with zigzags.
I see nothing that will make ABX suddenly switch directions and soar back up to $55. $55 seems to be a very popular number when many stocks and even ETFs turn at. I never ignore a Fibonacci number as markets seem to love the Fibonacci numbers. The $8 and $5 price level would be two targets, that would still have to get hit. We have 4 months where all hell can still break lose, so don’t get to excited about “investing” in ABX. I will never invest again as “when” we invest is the most important thing.
The majority of investors always get into one trap or another, and when they realize this then we could see some capitulation selling. There has been no capitulation since the 2011 peak, and even the 2015 low was rather boring and mundane. A downside break-out would be below the $6 price level with a potential $5 target as well. We still have downside time to go, but I still would not make a heavy bullish bets. George Soros traded ABX and sold out just before the peak. Investors left a 365% gain on the table which took about 8 months to play out.
When the time comes I may look at some call option positions, but I will not make any large commitment as ETFs are more my thing! I haven’t tracked any Gold/ABX ratio, but it should not be rocket science that ABX will be oversold below $5. I started trading with options in August 2018 so that is not nearly long enough to say I’m experienced. By the end of 2018 I will be, as all my PUTs will be closed off by then.