It’s always a good idea to go back in chart history to do a complete review. All my Supercycle and Grand Supercycle wave counts I used to have no longer were making sense, so my degree levels eventually ended up at a Cycle degree.
Three-degree levels above and three-degree levels below Cycle degree is what I’m chasing. All the Minor degree wave positions have not been filled out. They will not make any senses anyway if any Intermediate and Primary degree positions don’t make sense.
Basically, what it means we have to connect all the “Cycle Degree Dots” first before we can ever advance into the next higher degree.
I generally don’t like to use trend lines very often as I think they are very subjective. The bottom trend line is based on the angle of the top trend line. The bottom trend line is pointing to the $500 price range.
Just so gold investors don’t freak out thinking I’m forecasting $500 gold, you can look ahead with the top trend line and it could be pointing to $3000 gold.
The top gold wave count ended on a very good 5 wave impulse move, blowing its top in 1980 at $850. Every wave analyst on the planet had some degree of a wave 3 top for 1980. Even before I fully realized that commodities run as giant diagonals I started to apply it to gold.
From 1980 to the 2011 peak all we had was a zigzag. A fricken zigzag lasting 31 years and still only a Primary degree move. A bear market in gold lasting about 20 years was the result of the 1980 gold mania peak.
If we jump to the 1999-2000 gold bottom, gold was considered junk as it seemed that the entire world was trying to dump gold. Then a miracle happened and gold started to rally and never stopped for a good 10-year run.
I use the 30-year cycles in gold from 1920, 1950, 1980, 2011 with 2041 being the next 30-year cycle top. (SC Wave 3)
In late 2011, the gold price started to tumble and most of the wave analysts were looking for the bull market to come back. All the wave counting in the world will not help us if we have no clue what the 2011 peak really was.
It was another gold mania even more insane than 1980, as $5,000-$10,000 gold forecasts were pretty normal. Back at the 1980 peak, the gold price forecasts were $2000 or more. The only thing that has changed is the price of the forecasts.
If you believe that the 2011 peak is a wave 3 peak in Cycle degree, then we can pick out 3 types of corrections that we can have. It’s pretty common Elliott Wave knowledge, that markets can fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. The 1980-2000 bear market is not the 4th wave! It’s a “B” wave but they can act much like a 4th wave as well.
I think our present gold market is still in a bearish funk, but it could take a few years for us to see a better picture. The decline of solar cycle 24 is drawing gold prices like a magnet, but gold prices could also get repelled back up with the power of solar cycle 25 behind it. Sure we’ve had a long bearish phase already but history shows us that longer ones can happen.
Have a Great Easter!