Quick Gold Daily Chart Update

Once I looked at what the commercial hedgers did last week I had to post something.  Last week the commercials added some of the most bearish positions in gold that I have seen.

Sure gold can go higher as the speculators are the true trend chaser!

This record goes back to June 2018 with a huge commercial short position and speculators having a huge long position. It’s impossible for both groups to be right at the same time.

From my experience, it’s the speculators that are the trend chasers and usually the first people to panic when they find out that they are wrong. All it takes is one group to see the set-up at the same time. A large group or a small group matters little as small panics happen all the time.

One strong drop in the gold price can send the speculators into sheer panic as they try and squirm their way out of a bull trap.

Hits: 0

SP500 Intraday Update And Some Full Moon Commentary!

My little moon app tells me that we are also at a full moon which can be very bearish at times. The problem with using the moon cycles is that they are not that reliable as some make them out to be. At times major reversals have occurred during the full moon, but so have new moons.

The next new moon should be July 3, 2019, still a few weeks away.  Sometimes midweek will supply a turning in the stock markets so a reversal could still take a few days.

I would love to count down 5 waves in Minute degree but this wave structure just doesn’t fit a wave 2 rally,  as I would like to see the SP500 initially go a bit deeper. Otherwise, we would need some wild extensions for this impending 5 wave run in Minute degree.

Commercial hedgers net short positions hardly show up, which is still fairly bullish from my perspective. I’ll give this bullish run until the end of the week where this strong bullish trend faces a correction or an end to this bullish phase.  If this June bull run is just a big bear market rally then eventually the SP500 would have to retrace the 2730 price level.

The Gold/SP500 ratio has not changed that much and it’s still at the 2.16:1 range which is still far too expensive, as gold ratios go.

Hits: 0

US Dollar Daily Chart Review:

Since the 2018 bottom (wave 4) the US dollar has been in a bullish phase and at this point, I still can’t see a major trend reversal in the making.  With the entire world trying to destroy the US dollar it still looks like it wants to keep pushing higher.

Since the 2019 bottom, the US dollar has produced an overlapping pattern that frankly has been a real challenge to sort out.  2019 has turned into a diagonal nightmare because diagonal waves can be mistaken for a bearish rally it is easy to come up with a wave count where the US dollar is going to crash.

I’ve mentioned it many times but I think the US dollar is in a much bigger bull market that we can imagine and no amount of fundamental reasoning can change its direction until it is ready to do so. The real bottom with the US dollar was back in 2008 when the entire world thought the USD had died and was advised to get out of the USD and into gold.

All the gold bugs are eager to see the US dollar crash again and it may happen, as any bull market needs good healthy corrections to stay alive.

I’m sure my bullish wave counts are going against the US dollar bears and at one point the commercial hedgers shifted to a massive net short position that I thought would finish the US dollar bull market.

Last week the commercial hedgers made a very bullish move as they added 2597 contracts to their long side. Don’t get me wrong as the commercials are still net short by a large margin.

Our last bottom with the US dollar was about May 7, 2019, which could be a bottom for another leg up. Any bullish move should push the US dollar to a new record high even if it’s only by a very slim margin.

Commercials turned very bearish towards our CAD and gold last week, which also helps my bullish case.

Hits: 1

Gold Weekly Chart Review

For the last 3 1/2 years, gold has been in a sideways pattern and is now approaching the upper part of this range, $1360-$1375.  At $1400 gold’s breakout would be pretty obvious and I’m sure the gold bulls will be cheering.

This weekly chart 2019 death cross,  has been avoided for now but I’m sure that the death cross will happen.

At $1050 or lower gold would confirm that for the last 3-4 years, the gold price has just been in a big bear market rally.

Trying to hunt for an Intermediate degree wave 3-4 is now over 3 years old and compared to other Intermediate degree corrections since 2011, this is getting a bit too long.

Jumping up by one degree definitely cures the time problem but we still have a location problem. Gold is acting this bullish but silver is still far behind. If the surge in the gold price is fear based, then the gold bulls could get worn out and run and hide.

Many may think that the $1050 price level is some miracle support price but nobody knows what that 2016 bottom really is. When the 2011 peak hit I think it was a Cycle degree top and frankly there is little chance that a Cycle degree 4th wave has already completed at this point in time.

At a minimum gold would have to dip into the 1980 price peak of $850 before any major new bull market will occur. All commodities run under diagonal idealized patterns, which means there are always many zigzags that connect together. With gold, the 5 waves ending in 2011 was a Primary degree “C” wave run.

With the impending bottom of solar cycle 24, anything can still happen to the gold price.

Hits: 9

Crude Oil Intraday Tanker Attack!

In the last 6-7 days, crude oil has created a double bottom followed by price surge due to some tanker attacks bound for Asia. Events like this happen but rarely do they spawn a complete bull market.

Crude oil can keep going but it should reach the top trend line before I turn bearish again.  I use oil futures to help set-up a Forex oil unit position. I like to make short bets as taking a strong long position can get us into a trap.  If a single oil short shows “Red” in my account then I get out and wait for a better bearish set-up.

Oil is in a bigger bearish phase than what we think but oil traders jump on a bullish move chasing the price.

Right now oil may be bullish for all of June as there is the potential of a 4th wave counter rally still to complete.

 

Hits: 4

Crude Oil Intraday Update And Impending Golden Cross!

With this December intraday chart, we can see that crude oil already had a death cross at the $61 price level. Crossings happen more frequently at this intraday level and another crude oil bullish phase would be a set-up for a golden cross.

There is room for oil to rally again, right to the top trend line at the $56.50 price level.  Another leg up sure could force a golden cross in oil to happen.  The problem with moving averages is that they are useless after they happen.

Any summer rally at this point sure could produce a golden cross but then another new set-up for another death cross can also happen.

I use crude oil futures as a set-up for trading Forex oil units so this morning I closed off any short positions I had in Brent and WTI oil. I sure can be wrong so I only take very small bullish positions where it is easy to bail out just in case no rally takes place at all.

Any price spike with a vertical move would force me to close any short term bullish positions, but if the bullish phase comes true then I would be building a new short position.

Another bullish move could take all of June to play out and surprise moves should be expected.

The Gold/Oil ratio has improved with a reading of 25.40:1 this morning and I want that spread to keep getting wider.

Hits: 4

Beyond Meat Crash Review!

My first try looking for a wave count fail by a wide margin which was around the $74 price level.  Retail participants don’t care about any value they just don’t want to be left behind.

If you owned BYND then you only had a 1-2 day window to unload!  Selling into the spike is the best but if you see the spike or not, all depends on how you manipulate your charts.

I think this chart is heading into a bear market as a major price peak is already in by late Friday. We have a large gap open below present prices which I think will get filled at the $100 price level.

Bear market rallies retrace themselves and we have to wait and see if BYND falls below its IPO price.

The spike high was around the $185 but the charts only quote $150.  At best the $60-$70 price level may produce some support but solar cycle 24 could be pulling Beyond Meat down as well.

Back in May, I took a Gold/BYND ratio reading which was about 18:1 with the recent ratio reading of only 7.44:1.

Hits: 4

Natural Gas Monthly Chart 1970-2019 Review

Without a doubt, natural gas belongs in the diagonal family of patterns.  Commodities that I cover all have diagonal wave structures and this has been true since the Little Ice Age ended.  (Wave II in Supercycle degree) When SC degree wave II ended is debatable but the majority of scientists say 1850 is when the climate changed.

In modern times we have more NG available to us than at any time in our history. Fracking made the difference and soon “Electric Fracking”, will become popular.

Trying to work out natural gas supply and demand is a futile effort because once the demand for NG slows they just vent or burn off excess inventory.  

They figure that 1/3 of all Natural gas is burned off like this. The more supply they have the higher the flaring rate becomes. Northern Canada is also home to flaring off excess inventory which most satellite systems can measure.

Since the 1984 peak NG prices switched patterns as before 1984 the massive bull market was pretty smooth but soon after that, the NG price patterns changed dramatically.

This is very normal and happens at all degree scales that I use.  Gold was also a big zigzag bull market but a 20-year bear market kept us scratching our heads.

The “C” wave came to an end in 2005 and a new bearish phase has started that is still running 14 years later. The NG bear market is still not finished as a new record low should still get established in the next few years.

The slow and steady decline of solar cycle 24 is drawing NG prices down until solar cycle 25 cranks up. The sun and its cycles have a huge impact on NG prices and that is about as fundamental as we can get,  yet the majority all ignore solar cycle fundamentals.

Hits: 4

S&P Midcap E-Mini Daily Chart Review

Its been a while since I posted the Midcaps and one main reason is that the April peak did not soar to new record highs.

I can’t count that peak as a “Truncated Peak” because it’s just too far gone for my liking besides that, line mode confirms the bar chart as well.

The crash down to the December 2018 bottom still is a great looking zigzag which matches many other indices.

From the 2018 bottom to the April/May top would be a bear market rally but the markets have to confirm it. There are two major price support levels, one at 1800 and another at the 1565 price level.

Being bullish when a potential death cross is just around the corner is not my way of looking at things.

Solar cycle 24 is also ending by 2020 which work more like magnets drawing or repealing prices. The big recession ended in early 2009 when solar cycle 23 stopped and solar cycle 24 started.

It could take 4 more months if one month takes the time of 1 Minor degree wave structure.

Hits: 4

Copper Weekly Chart Review

Copper has started a bearish phase in 2018 which at this point can still turn into a correction. The 2016 bottom could also be a temporary bottom so that the 2016-2018 bullish phase is nothing but a bear market rally.

We can see that copper has had some dynamic crashes in the past with the 2008 crash being one of the steepest I have seen. The 2009 bottom matches solar cycle 24 very well, with the 2011 peak matching solar cycle’s 24 first peak.

I think the ending of solar cycle 24 is drawing copper prices down and when solar cycle 25 arrives copper prices should start to crank up again.

My 2011 Cycle degree wave 3 peak is still valid and no amount of reviewing has forced me to change the 2011 peak.

Hits: 5

Gold Bullish Phase Impending Correction

For the last month or so cash gold produced about 7 wild spikes to the upside, which readers can all ignore. Anomalies like this do happen in futures forcing me to double check by the switch to line mode to see if the spike is real.

As wild as this bullish phase has been it’s pretty normal for diagonal wave structures. The 5th wave is another zigzag with one 5th wave being part of a “C” wave bullish phase.

The May/June zigzag is not even close to having an even “C” wave but I look for zigzags anyways. I allow much more extreme zigzag lengths like in 1930-1932 stock market decline. When a market dishes out a long “C” wave then I allow it and incorporate it into my version of the EWP.

The Gold price can crash again as this potential 4th wave correction has not finished.

Hits: 6

Crude Oil Intraday Update

This is the September crude oil contract and the more I stare at it the better I like oil as a 4th wave expanded flat rally.  Chances are good that next week this rally could end and oil should resume its bearish trend.

That means that this oil rally is just another bear market rally even though it’s a small one. It takes very little upside for crude oil fans to turn bullish again but from my perspective, we could be facing a much bigger and longer bearish trend than we can imagine at this time.

Some analysts keep saying that oil is close to a bear market but this is a very narrow point of view. The real bull market in oil died in July 2008, with every rally since then being completely retraced.

Since 2008 oil had two major crashes followed by bullish phases. Analysts were convinced both times the crude oil would soar to the moon again but oil turned around and headed south each time.

The 2016 oil low may be the end to the oil bear market but the rally that followed sure has some impulse pattern issues.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 24:1 which should expand some more as the price of oil declines.

Hits: 6

Nasdaq Daily Chart Update

The huge Head&Shoulder pattern now stands out very well as the Nasdaq started to implode in the first part of May.  In a wild and wooly bull market, the right shoulder would never hold and in this case, the Nasdaq has already declined far enough to create some serious damage to investors portfolios.

I think trillions of dollars have been wiped off the books already and I’m sure more will still go up in a puff of electronic smoke.  We have until about June 21 when this contract month has to move to the September month which can cause some more convulsions that few are expecting.

I’m expecting a Cycle degree correction with an Intermediate degree bottom still very far away.  If the December bottom is true as an Intermediate degree bottom then we can visualize where my new “A” wave may come in at. This would be close to the 5800 price level.

I’m sure the stock bulls will offer their life so that the bears can have a great barbecue this summer.

Hits: 9

SP500 E-Mini Intraday Bullish Phase Review

During the first part of June, the markets began to soar which at this point is one of the largest rallies since April.

During the last 2 weeks of May, the pattern changed again, which I can count as a diagonal wave structure containing 7 waves.  The SP500 E-Mini has now entered my previous 4th wave position but has also entered 2 previous smaller degree 4th wave peaks as well.

In a bear market rally, so many previous 4th wave peaks offer serious resistance even though this stock rally can advance some more. Going above the previous 4th wave in Minute degree can happen but that is a bit rare as well.

Yes, I moved my Minor degree wave 1-2 around but basically, May produced 5 diagonal waves down.

Many analysts are very bullish saying it’s time to jump on, but that usually never works well if a bear market is much bigger than anyone is thinking right now.

I think the markets have to give us a Cycle degree correction, as a Minor degree move is just window dressing at best.

This contract will only last until the 3rd Friday of the contract month so by the end of June investors have to make a huge move into the September contract month.

So far the SP500 has displayed some nice impulse waves but the May decline best fits into a diagonal.

There are only so many seats on the bullish bandwagon and when the music stops, can you jump up fast enough and forfeit your seat?

Hits: 8

DOW 30 E-Mini Intraday Impending Bull Trap?

Now that the markets are soaring does it mean the bull market is back?  This move for June is not natural because there are only very small corrections. I’m sure the bears have been horned by the stock bulls but is it time for this trend to reverse?

The May decline fits best as a diagonal with a 7-wave count. Any wave 2 rally will find stiff resistance at the previous 4th wave top and in this case, I have 3 previous 4th waves that this present wave 2 has touched.

Sure we can go higher but then a higher degree may also be involved. I changed the location of my Minor degree run and we should know by the end of next week or so.

Another set of 5 waves down in Minute degree would have to happen and nothing short of wave 2 retracement, would be acceptable.

The Gold/Djia ratio got better, but it’s still far too expensive presently at 19:1. Cheap would be closer to 8:1.

Hits: 8

Elliott Wave Solar Cycle 24 Update

This is the May 2019 updated solar cycle 24 progress report with little change. As I post the sun is blank and it has an 18-day run with no sunspot activity at all.

Some people may be in a panic already thinking solar cycle 25 has arrived, but if solar cycle 25 is here then the sun would be loaded with sunspot activity.

Sunspot arrival location and polarity must be considered as well and so far none of that has happened. We still have about 1-2 years where we can see sunspot activity virtually flat-line along the bottom.

There is no guessing here as solar cycle 25 will come to produce a profound change of mood here on earth, and hopefully, we have a few extra people watching for it as well.

The first solar cycle 24 peak (2011) correlated well with the price peak in gold, silver and a host of other asset classes.

Even though gold has been soaring as of late the decline of solar cycle 24 could still draw gold prices down, but the arrival of solar cycle 25 should push gold prices up again.

 

Hits: 8

XEG ETF: Still In A Bear Market?

I haven’t had a look at XEG for a long time but I gave it another once over.  The classic diagonal waves were evident and it’s the main reason we see many zigzags. This oil-related ETF could work as a triangle but then I would have to label it all with primary degree waves.

We are close to an 11-year bear market so far and frankly, that may not be long enough for a Cycle degree correction to complete. XEG definitely follows the sun cycle matching 2011, and 2014 peaks in solar cycle 24.

I don’t see the 5th wave decline in Intermediate degree finished, as the Minute degree 4th wave may still have a surprise rally left.

Once solar cycle 25 starts up, then I’m sure XEG prices will rise with it.

Not until the third major bottom shows can I get bullish on XEG and even then another bear market rally could follow.

Hits: 4

Mini DOW 30 Intraday Review

For just about 3 days now the markets have soared. This is not a natural move as it’s also near vertical, suggesting that many buy stops got hit combined with the “Fear Of Missing Out”, rush.

The Dow did come back well into the previous second wave but it can’t surpass it. We would have to look for another zigzag type of a decline which would also produce a newer record low.

The Gold/Dow ratio changed but it didn’t make me jump up and down and scream “Buy”, as it’s only at 19:1 this morning.

I’m sure it will now take the rest of the week or longer before this clears up a bit and a complete retracement would have to take place if this was just another bear market rally.

The DOW and the SP500 are a bit the same but the Nasdaq looks more like an impulse.

Hits: 3

Gold Daily Chart: Time For A Correction?

Gold started out June with a price jump that can get the gold bulls all excited. Ok, I’ll bite as the last 3 months sure can work as a diagonal 4th wave flat.

The H&S could also be very bullish but before this happens, gold may have to crash back down to $1260-$1250, and then crank back up again.

On the other hand, gold can fall like a rock but then we know that the gold bulls are not as committed as the media makes them out to be.

Gold moves that are made with “Fear” hardly ever last that long so we still could see some wild action in both directions.

The one thing that some people might not expect is that a diagonal 4th wave can dip down into wave 2 which would be closer to $1200 gold.

 

Hits: 15

Crude Oil Intraday Chart Update

Crude oil hit a bottom 2 days ago and is still above $52.17 so far. What I’m expecting is a longer and higher correction which may take oil back up to the $55 price level. Two days is also not long enough for a Minor degree correction to complete which could take until mid next week.

As long as the waves are choppy and overlap then the odds are good that oil prices will not soar to the moon.

So far the decline looks diagonal and the 50-day MA could get sliced while the 200-day MA should over resistance.

With the price of gold blasting upward the gold/oil ratio changed just as fast but it’s still around 24:1. We want that ratio to spread as gold becomes cheaper during this bearish phase.

I think this oil bear party is far from over until most of the oil bulls get butchered or we see then running for the hills.

 

Hits: 5

Gold Intraday Wild Ride To The Stars!

Since the last part of April and all of May gold showed 3 higher lows before soaring to $1318. I think a correction is due but this could also be another false start to nowhere after which gold can crash very deep.

This has happened so many times that I care to count, but I also know these wild and choppy moves are part of what makes commodities rather exciting at times.

Of course, if you missed this run then welcome to the club. All the spikes you see you can ignore them, except our present spike, which is the real deal! This blast is part of a “C” wave which if I’m right, will get completely retraced.

These wild moves also change the Gold/Oil ratio but the ratio has remained close to 24:1.

Hits: 11

Crude Oil Daily Chart Review

One thing we can trust oil to do is to go in the opposite direction when the oil bulls call for oil to go much higher.  When the oil media calls for higher oil prices, then I ask a silly question, “Who are they talking to?”  What group of smart investors or traders are still lurking in a cave somewhere that just loves to buy oil at much higher prices?

How oil has crashed so far shows us that it was the bears hiding in the forests that came out and decimated the oil bulls, at least for now!

I will not repeat all the fundamental news for you as we can have a thousand reasons put out by 1000 different blogs.

No trend lasts forever and how much they retrace down to gives us an idea if we are in a bear market rally or a true bull market.

In the chart above between the “B” wave bottom and “C” wave top in Minor degree, we want to know if it is a bear market rally or not. We are at about a 50% retracement right now, but that does little as we can also get 80% plunges.

Nothing but a complete retracement clearly visible on daily charts would have to happen, after which the early 2019 bullish rally is a bear market rally.

The most expensive Gold/Oil ratio hit about 19:1, after Fridays oil price thrashing the ratio ended at about 24:1. This was a quick jump in the ratio and we may be ready for a counter-rally in June.

Of course, we could see a very violent counter rally and it to must be a fake bullish phase if the oil bearish phase has not completed.

Oil has been in a bear market since the 2008 peak, where every counter rally since then has already been retraced. Since the July 2008, peak oil produced two major lows which would work for a normal correction but in an 11-year bear market, 3 major bottoms can also happen.

11 years sounds like a solar cycle to me, which I call a fundamental indicator that most wave analysts ignore.

Even though the overall decline needs to go much deeper there are no daily trading limits in commodities, that I know about. You can’t get a more vertical drop than what was produced on Friday so the bears could be in a short term bear trap. I closed off all short positions in Forex Oil units on Friday and even took a small long position.

The moving average lines will get pulled down until another oil death cross is formed.

 

Hits: 6

Quick Intraday US Dollar Update

For the last 6 weeks, the US dollar has seen some wild moves which also produces some spikes that don’t show up with a line type setting.  The US Dollar couldn’t stand up any longer and looks like another correction is playing out.

Still, the US dollar is not going to dive into a bear market pushing the price of gold much higher, at least not yet!

The trade war has been going on for a long time already so the USD could have imploded many times already, but so far it has refused to do so, except for corrections.

I will remain bullish on the USD but the commercial hedgers may not see it that way in tonight’s COT reports.

Hits: 3

Gold Daily Chart: Fear Moves Don’t Last!

So far gold is doing what I wanted to see happen, but it’s so choppy that it can be part of a diagonal decline and never breakout or see $1350.  Gold looks like it’s in a correction but I also have to keep my diagonal options open.

A little crash in the USD sure helps to fire up the emotional investors as they charge into gold. When you hear investors running to gold as a safe haven hiding spot, then this is an emotional decision and not a logic longer-term investment.

At this daily chart scale, gold has not bounced off the 200-day MA, which will be important to watch.

I have made some changes to the wave count and we will see if a new bearish low happens.

It also depends on how bullish or how bearish the commercial hedger’s COT reports are tonight.

I’m sure President Trump’s duties slapped on Mexico was a surprise, but really folks what do you expect in a trade war. In 1930 the trade war had the same effect when they signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Small tariff wars have never really stopped as many presidents also loved to enforce duties.

Hits: 7

Crude Oil Intraday Crash Update

Crude oil gave us a short bullish move before oil reversed and plunged to a new bearish low.  Oil has completed 2 sets of zigzags and we need two more and maybe a third, which could turn into a flat.

Another $5-$6 drops would be nice and then oil would be ready for a wave 3-4 rally in Minor degree.  These diagonal waves can make spectacular moves when there are no daily trading limits.

I would love to see another small 5 waves down in Minuette degree before another potential counter rally can kill the bears and send them running back into the forest!

They’ll be back and that should coincide with my 5th wave down in Minor degree.

The Gold/Oil ratio definitely got better but at 22.8:1, it’s still not enough to jump up and down about.  I do have some WTI short positions and so far the trade is in the green.

All this can fall apart if the “B” wave in Intermediate degree is too far off base. It may take until November/December before this, “Run of Five” gets completed.

When the “B” wave disappears on this 90 min chart then the wave 2 in Minor degree will be the main position I’ll be counting from.

The problem is that any “E” wave bottom in Primary degree could be below the $26 price level which is about $30 away from today’s price low. For that to come true some serious extensions would have to help it otherwise oil could come to a grinding halt much earlier.

During this 90 min chart, we had a golden cross and then right back into a death cross. With the daily chart, it will not take long for the 50-day MA to slice through the 200-day MA.

Hits: 1

Dow 30 Intraday Bearish Update

Finally, the DOW had another price failure and is now pushing into new bearish territory.  I’m sure it’s just a matter of time before investors start a mini panic. A mini panic is when a group of people all “See”  the same situation and start to act at the same.  Most of the time they “Panic” at the wrong time which usually turns into a short term buying opportunity.

The Mini DJIA  sure had a wild counter-rally in May which now has completely retraced itself.  The media turns bullish while the pattern suggests that just a mini bear market rally has occurred.

The SP500 has about the same pattern, while the Nasdaq displayed a much better flowing 4th and 5th wave.  It may take until June for this last part to play out but either way, my 5 wave run in Minor degree, will have to come to an end.

Another Intermediate degree is next on the list and even that may not be any bigger physically, than what we are looking at right now.

The trade war continues but now it’s all about Rare Earth Elements and the Energy Metals.

Hits: 6

Brent Crude: Intraday Rally Review

July Is the next active month and we can see a small rally has taken place which could be part of another zigzag in Minute degree.  For this particular bear, rally wave count to last Brent crude must crash below $67 which would be about another $6 price drop!

Of course, all the bearish reasons why Brent crude is crashing will come out, as it’s the analyst’s job to produce the fundamental reasons why.  Oil has been crashing even though commercial hedgers were still long last week.

I’m pretty sure some analysts will blame the price swings on climate change as the Green parties seemed to take control in Europe.

The fact is any price surge in oil will always get stopped as traders start to see a temporary glut in the making.
The Gold/Brent ratio is 18:1 which is still very expensive to my liking.
Brent could remain bearish for a month or so but summer holidays may change the supply and demand scenario again.

Hits: 3

Crashing Australian Dollar: Monthly Chart Update

Since August 2011 the Australian dollar has been in a bear market. The big counter rallies can fool us into thinking the Australian bear market is over.  The 2011 AUD peak and our CAD both ended as solar cycle 24 was finishing.

This is not something coincidental, as the sun cycles impact all currencies. In the last year or so we had a sideways rally that many figured was the start of a new bull market. I was raked over the coals about remaining bearish to the AUD and CAD.

Reality is starting to set in where this 4th wave rally is close to being completely retraced at the 68 cent price level, which is not too far away.

A wild erroneous spike still shows up but other settings do not confirm this spike, so I ignore them. No doubt about it, the AUD decline is not your picture perfect 5 wave impulse as they are rare in anything commodities related.

At 60 cents the Australian dollar would be getting close to the 2008 crash bottom which ended solar cycle 23.  The only difference between then and now is that the solar cycle number increased by one.

Australian dollar commercial positions are stacked to a net long position which is a bullish indicator but they can remain that way for extended periods of time.

I believe that the start of solar cycle 25 is going to be positive for both of our currencies but that knowledge means little if we have never experienced the mood change that solar cycles bring.

Hits: 5

Gold Daily Chart: Impending Breakout?

For the last 3 months gold has been declining but the waves have been overlapping to a point where we can be in a triangle with the “E” wave still to complete.

Last week the commercials in gold and silver made some bullish moves as they added longs and took away short positions.  Gold doesn’t have to fall to $ 1260 as it could just blast up from today’s prices as well.

If a bullish move is still pending then that right shoulder trend line should not hold.  Any price move above $1350 would be a good sign If we are in a corrective pattern and we get a 5th wave. It could be as long as wave three by the time this rally is finished.

We still have a full week of trading for May but then June could produce another reversal.

 

Hits: 19

Hui Price Spike Anomaly!

 

When I looked at HUI in the last few days I saw that the chart contained a price spike topping out at about 8728. It’s a screen clip and you can call it a sick joke if you like. Anomalies like this can and do happen in ETFs, stocks, and futures.

Since this spike lasted over the weekend this spike may not disappear. Algorithms running amok or just a temporary glitch?

If it stays it renders the HUI useless for counting waves. Readers using other software sites may never see this spike but it was such a  ridiculous of a move I had to post it, if not just for entertainment purposes.

When we spot an anomaly like this, just check other related assets like GDX or GDXJ to see if they also spiked. They didn’t so that helped to confirm that this HUI spike is just an illusion and should be ignored.

I have about 9 settings I can use and this price anomaly only shows on a few.

Hits: 6