UBER,BYND Some Of The worst IPO’s

I just wanted to show some of the worst IP0’s that came out during the second stock mania since 2000. I will never ever buy into any part of this market as UBER could go bankrupt and disappear.

 

BYND is not as bad but I think it will still travel well below the IPO price. The competition is great for veggie burgers as every major change has been working on them.

I haven’t included any pot stocks as that industry is in an oversupply situation the likes I have never seen before, but has not surprised me at all.

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Gold Daily Chart Update.

Talk about gold moving at a snail’s pace we have been witnessing it for the last couple of months. The only thing that can happen to get the analysts excited is some unexpected 200-day MA death cross, which should be pretty easy to spot by the keen observer.

It would take a minimum of a $100 gold price drop to cut the 200-day MA (Bottom Line)

My updates will be erratic at best as I have other pressing issues I can’t avoid.

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Solar Cycle 24 Update

The data for October is in and solar 24 has broken all records since the low of solar cycle 23 in 2008 of 73%. Solar cycle 24 now has a record of 74% spotless days. (229 days).

I few sunspots that belong to solar cycle 25 have come out but not enough to make a difference. We still have until early spring of 2021 ( March?)for the stock bears to strike but after that all bets are of.

Maybe the US markets will not do what they did in 2009 and start looking like the Nikkei bear market since 1990!

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SP500 Review

The SP500 has been dragging its feet and really has gone nowhere fast.

The media constantly talks about a recession but the markets are still sitting at record highs.

You would figure prices of the indices would be sliced in halve buy now, but they are not.

Any Tweet by Trump could get investors running for cash as we still have 2.5 months of time left when markets take the time to crash.

October, 24,1929 would be a 90-year anniversary date.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Review

 

Since early 2018 the US dollar has been on a bullish march that defies logic as a 5th wave. We are now sitting 0n the 200 MA line which supplies some type of support, at least temporary support.

It should be a deeper correction if the previous 4th wave is a Minute degree. Only time will tell. You would figure gold would react to the USD decline but it has been rather subdued through the entire US Dollar decline. Even silver has been very docile lately as it has moved very little.

 

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Gold Daily Chart: Going Nowhere

There is not much to report with gold as it seems to be stuck in limbo right now, even though the US dollar has gone on a downward slide.

Gold would have to slide a minimum of $120 just to get close to that 200 day MA.

I will try and update the SP500 and the DOW but they haven’t moved much from record highs as well.

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The First Year: Marijuana Investment Disaster

What the above story says is exactly what I anticipated what would happen in the marijuana industry. Competing with the black market is a lose-lose situation as we can see most of the pot-related stocks are being crushed in price.

Many pot stocks are controlled by crooks and have stopped trading. It’s just weed folks, nothing more, and anyone can ask a friend and can get some.

There is very little difference between the Tulip Mania and the Cannabis Mania, as both of them are plant-based.

In another 2 years or more, I can see marijuana investments flat-line never to rise again as once they get burned they run away as fast as they can.

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Crude Oil Daily Chart Update

My intent was to eliminate all other months and stay with the December contracts for the rest of the year. This is still the November month as it slipped past me.

The recent rally still looks corrective so $50 is still on the table from my perspective, or let’s say it’s still on my wish list.

I refuse to spend my time regurgitating all the fundamental analysis out there as they change with the wind. Since 2019 there were about 6 swings in different directions in oil and I bet very few readers remember what fundamental news events happened for each one.

The short version is that when analysts hype a certain direction it gets up and goes the opposite direction.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 27:1 and it might compress a bit more in the next few weeks, and it takes the Gold/Oil ratio 35-40:1 before oil becomes cheap again.

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Silver Intraday Decline Review

It sure looks like the silver bearish phase is continuing but gold is lagging behind. Gold can give us a bullish wave count while silver fits into a 4th wave rally very well.

Silver has walked to a different drummer for as long as I have been tracking it, so I do not expect it to change.

Silver is $3.65 away from crashing to new record lows while gold has a much further distance to cover.

Only time will answer that question which could take to the end of the year or longer.

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Solar Cycle 24 Update

The September results have been posted and we had 23 days of no sunspot activity. The sun is not completely dormant as there are lots of other actions on the sun to send solar storms our way.

As long as the northern lights shine, we know solar storms and CMEs are blowing.

We had one day where two spots were active but both were from different number cycles. This is to be expected and may continue for the rest of the year.

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HUI 2015-2019 Review

HUI is the unhedged gold-stock related index and it also never even came close to soaring past the 2016 highs. Many analysts were calling for the HUI or gold stocks to catch-up but they have done that at every major bullish run but has also failed each time.

Since this is just a potential 4th wave bear market rally. The HUI doesn’t have to make a deep historic low as double bottoms or even triple bottoms can happen.

Either way we need another zigzag decline in Minor degree (Blue) so that should get all the gold bulls excited again.

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GDX 2015-2019 Review

The majority were waiting for GDX to perform like gold itself, but GDX never even got out of the gate as we are still waiting.

GDX never cleared 2016 high while gold soared into the previous wave 2 which makes it a diagonal pattern.

Silver and much other gold-related ETF performed much less which makes all rallies fit a 4th wave bear market rally.  Obviously, the public doesn’t know what an Elliott Wave bear market rally is, as they just use the standard 20% retracement description.

SLV is a prime example of how much difference is between GDL and SLV.

Even the Gold/Gdx ratio hasn’t changed that much at 53:1 and I want to see that number spread much more with 84:1 being on the cheap side of my ratio data base.

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T-Bonds Daily Chart Review

The bull market in T-Bonds started in early 1982 and is still going at this time.  I would love to see T-Bonds break above 178 to help confirm that the bull market is not dead yet.

Worst case scenario we could slip into a triangle type. correction so that it can use up much more time.

Commercials are far from hold very bearish positions so my confidence in the bullish scenario remains.

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Euro Daily Chart Review

The Euro is in a long decline but had a little counter-rally this morning.  I think this Euro bearish phase is still a long way away from finishing as I would like to see the Euro fall below 1.04 first.

The Euro choppy phase started after a 4th wave completed so I expect that to continue right to the end. The Euro and the USD have much of the same pattern but inverse to each other.

When the Brexit Plans may seem to work then I can see the Euro react differently, but we may have to wait until the snow falls before we see positive results.

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Daily Chart Crude Oil Crash Review

So far oil has performed as I had hoped, with a spike being formed today.  It’s not a long spike as I would like to see oil hit $50 and the analysts making very bearish forecasts.

Analysts are giving mixed signals which usually can send oil soaring once more. I have made a one-degree change which brings the entire bullish cycle that started in 2016 closer to another “A” wave in Primary degree.

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Gold Daily Chart Bearish Trend Continues

I’m going to keep it simple, counting down from the September highs. It’s a diagonal wave so chances are good another diagonal wave decline is going to happen.

Below and old price of $1375 would be nice but that could be a short term illusion.  In the long run, gold could hit a major double bottom at $1050 and what will be important if a zigzag has formed.

The potential to completely retrace the entire zigzag is too great to ignore. It could still be a year or more away so patience is the key.

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US Dollar Weekly Chart Review

Regardless of all the bad news that is coming out the USD seems to be making bullish progress but in a very choppy way. This is a sign of a diagonal wave structure, so I will be looking for zigzags to keep showing up. This happens in 5th waves but wave 1-2 is ahead of us and we do have some time left.

Will it take all of October or more bad news about the impeachment of President Trump?

Commercials are net short by a wide margin so a bullish wave count has a battle all the way.

The thing is that the 2008 bottom was a “Major” bottom and was the bottom of wave 4 in Cycle degree. That means we should be in a 5 wave sequence bull market in Primary degree.

Gold bugs need a major USD decline to make them happy, but I think that’s not going to happen soon.

Eventually, the USD has to move above the 103.802 price level but that’s when some serious resistance also comes into effect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold Weekly Chart Review

One of my previous gold and silver chart update I still had it as a “B” wave top. With this wave count, I switched back to a 4th diagonal 4th wave rally.  The 4th wave dipped into wave 1 in Intermediate degree, but silver was far from it which makes it fit far better as a 4th wave still in effect.

Does gold have to crash below $1050? Not really but it sure can produce a wild double bottom. Either way, another zigzag could form but it could be an ugly one.

This 4th wave pushes time of the “A” wave in Primary degree into the future a few years, and we could expect a great bear market rally ride during solar cycle $25.

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Crude Oil Daily Chart Update

This is the December contract with moving averages showing. The golden cross didn’t last too long and we are still in the spell of a death cross. We could dip into another death cross so that makes it a pretty bearish scenario at this time.

The spike at my “B” wave top was a small double top which should hold until oil visits $50 again.  A flat inside a “B” wave could send oil to a screeching stop at $50, joining the other two obvious spikes.

We are looking at a Gold/Oil Ratio of 26.85 which is not all that bad, but this ratio should spread in the next few months if this bearish trend continues.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Update

Not much has changed except that the Nasdaq also started to take a dip which I believe is a wave 1-2 development. The Nasdaq needs to take out the 7400 price level and eventually the 6900 price level as well.

I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction which could take until early 2021 when solar cycle 25 starts to crank up. The 4 month crash into late 2018 traveled fast enough, so anything that happens once can happen again. When the analysts scream “Black Monday” then chances are good that the worst is over and we should look for widespread insider buying, buying their own stock back.

There are some ugly stocks in the Nasdaq and they need to go bankrupt and get tossed out of the index.

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Silver Daily Chart Update

Silver has also completed a wave 2 but I’m using Minor degree this time. Silver marches to a different drummer alright as it did not get the media attention as gold certainly did.

Silver gets attention when it soars but since it seems to be dying again analysts get bored and move on.  Silver is also just $ 4.43 away from staying on the bullish side, otherwise if silver falls below $13.58 it becomes a false bull market, which is a bear market rally from my perspective.

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Gold Daily Chart Update

It took a little while but I think a wave 1-2 has completed and from this point, forward price support at $1480 will no longer work.

I may have changed my starting degree by one but that can be done later.  For the big picture, I need a zigzag in Intermediate degree which means my small starting degree could be Minor degree.

 

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Publishing Announcement!

To all devoted readers

This year has seen unprecedented events happen in my life that I must address before I can continue to publish. So far I see no end in sight. Moving to another set of digs I have to cut back on everything including shutting down this blog.  I may try and publish on the weekends but I can’t make any promises.

Everything may be paid up until early 2020 but I can’t keep dishing out $500-$600 per year with no return. I thank the small donators that helped out.

“BB”

 

 

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Crude Oil 1999-2019 Review

I constantly review the bigger picture, as I see it everything related to commodities are diagonal wave structures. The 1990s was a correction with a triangle in the “B” wave of Intermediate degree ending in 1999.

Then in the middle of a worldwide oil glut crude oil started to soar until peak oil ended in 2008. Most of all wave analysts count 1999-2008 as a set of 5 waves in Primary degree, yet I count 7 waves.  Forcing 5 waves when there are only 7 waves is what I try and avoid.

During the 2008 peak, the Gold/Oil Ratio hit 9:1 when crude oil started to crash. Many smart contrarians knew that oil was going to crash, just because of the ratio was at an extreme.

I called the crash as well except my wave degree levels were off by a long shot.  From 2008 to the 2016 bottom looks like a perfect Primary degree zigzag has completed, which also ended with a potential 4th wave in Cycle degree.

Another zigzag in Primary degree could be one of the options that will end with Cycle degree wave 5. Wave 1 in Intermediate degree may already be completed but in the short term, oil can be fooling us as wave 2 might not be finished just yet.

The drone attack produced a crazy move to $63, a few dollars shy of what I thought it would do, but in its wake oil also produced one “Humungous gap”.

It was about a $4 gap between $56 and $60, so crude oil can crash right back down to $56 with little problem. (or lower)

I have never noticed a gap in oil this large since I started wave counting oil. This is a very bearish signal.

There should be no panic as they say the drone attacks was just 5% of world oil production taken offline. This made the USA the largest exporter of oil for the short term.

The Gold/Oil ratio also compressed to 24.9 from Fridays ratio of 27.13. Oil refineries blow up regularly but they can also rebuild them very fast by working 24/7.

Only time can answer a few more questions, as we have to see how deep oil prices can still fall.  Any oil price fall below $45 will definitely kill this short term wave count.

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Crude Oil Drone Attack Review

It seems pretty popular that events and news releases happen on the weekend when the markets are closed. The recent drone attack in Saudia Arabia is a prime example.

The markets are closed so the oil prices will not react until the start of trading Sunday night. It still gives traders lots of time to think it over if panic is going to hit the oil market.

There is no shortage of oil in the world as every country wants to pump and sell as much as the can. In the USA refineries blow up on a regular basis, but production gets back online fairly quickly.

Oil could make a drive to $60 before another decline sends oil south, but again early next week should tell us more.

Oil is in a crazy complex correction that is far from being finished and if oil ever falls below the December 2018 low of $45 I must use my bullish wave count.

Oil is still in a death cross but that also can change next week if oil makes a bounce.

The Gold/Oil ratio is far away from being expensive (9.1) as today it sits at 27.13, which is barely a point difference than 10 days ago. The ratio is not an issue at this time.

The commercials are net short but those readings are not at extremes as well. There is lots of room for oil to move in both directions.

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Min Dow Index Intraday Update

The DOW is being pushed to the limits of what wave 2 rallies can do so only a clear push to new record highs will kill it. Otherwise, it is primed to fall and start to close 2 of the big caps open below present prices.

Besides being an unlucky Friday 13th, we also have a full moon today which can be a turning signal as well. With 2 open gaps that makes it about 4 bearish signals that I use, which most analysts ignore as they are to busy chasing fundamentals which change as fast as the wind.

Any drop in the DOW will bring out the bearish news and we never know from what country it will come from.

Record high prices don’t reflect that a recession is here already, even though we can see the world economies are slowing down.

It’s a “Sit and Wait” situation at this time, but next week should tell us more.

The Gold/Dow ratio is still very expensive as it was 18.3 today from the ratio of 21:1, we have a long way to go before the DOW becomes cheap again at 7.19 where it only takes 7.19 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DOW.

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Intraday Silver Crash Update

I have silver as a bear market rally with potential support at $16.80,  but silver would get there before this wave pattern is finished.

Worst gets to worse if silver falls below $13.50, then this so-called bull market will get confirmed that it was just another bear market rally.

Is gold going to stay in a bull market? I find it hard to believe for silver to break to new bear market lows and gold doesn’t.

Even though I need another Minor degree zigzag on a 5th leg only time will tell when that will happen. On the daily chart, silver has left a beautiful spike behind, and spikes are my sell or buy signals regardless of what wave count I may be on.

I trade Forex silver units on my iPhone and use futures charts to set up trades with, so watching silver is important from my perspective.

I also have a small portfolio and a silver related stock that has soared while silver has been crashing which I was expecting because investors will run to penny stocks as a safe haven.

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Gold Friday, 13, 2019 Intraday Crash Update

 

So far gold is still on its way heading south with more to come. The US dollar has also made some bearish gyrations but so far gold has ignored the USD.

Stocks could head south and gold can do the same thing. What gold needs to show us is a clear correction well before $1380 as this has price support of a previous 4th wave. This correction must hold with gold soaring again to new record highs, that will kill my bearish wave count.

There are no daily limits in all commodities so gold crashes it can make dramatic moves that some investors do not understand.  I like that about gold and silver because bearish moves happen faster than bullish moves do.

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Solar Cycle 24 August Update.

This more of a technical look at the solar cycle with each dot, it represents the previous month’s sunspot activities. Last month was pretty dead as we had long stretches where the face of the sun was blank.

This is normal as the same thing happened back in 2008-2009.

The first peak in late 2011 matched the gold peak after which the secondary peak happened in early 2014.  2011 matches the gold and silver mania peak which is not a coincidence.

They do alternate, repelling and attracting prices here on earth.

The sun is what controls climate change, not some invisible CO2 gas that all the experts claim. The world is freaking out as more and more countries scream “Climate Emergency”.

Much of Canada is claiming a climate emergency, but yet they want to let in many climate refugees.  Wow, what a contradiction and when you are faced with a contradiction then at least 1 or more of our premises is wrong!

This is so true with any wave count we can produce as well. In the TV show, Jesse Stone solves a triple murder by going over the premises over and over.

Right now, it may take until 2021 for solar cycle 24 to end, but solar cycle 25 will already be in the mix. Solar cycle 25 should be very bullish for stocks but the next few years should tell us more.

 

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DOW Mini Index Review

I have gone over the entire bull market since the 2009 bottom and I may have missed an extension. Also since the December 2018 bottom, a set of 5 waves developed also containing an expanded pattern after which we had a July peak after which the DOW started another bearish move.

Expanded patterns show in 4th wave corrections frequently, so that also fits better. If our present move is a wave 2, then there should be no more new record highs. Many more gaps show up with this chart so anyone of them can get closed in the next few months or so.

This is all coming down to the wire but all it takes is the wrong kind of news and the DOW will make another leg down.

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