Author Archives: "BB"

Gold Stocks GDX Update!

 

Gold Going To $3000!

GDX has been on a rally which many think was a major bottom as the above analyst thinks gold is going to $3000 soon. What these crazy forecasts are telling us is that the US dollar has to implode in a major way, before gold ever breaks out again. The 2011 peak was already a gold/silver mania peak which I documented very well. At that 2011 peak, the majority of analysts were all extremely bullish yet gold stocks imploded ignoring all the fundamentals.  Most people couldn’t tell you what caused the decline after 2011, and I bet they still can’t tell you what lifted GDX in early 2016!

Sure GDX formed a bottom and it even has a decent “C” wave decline, but that doesn’t mean that GDX is in a real bull market! In a 4-year + decline,  gold stocks had many rallies and they all resumed their larger bearish trends. It may take the rest of this month, but any new bottom will help make my bearish case. The US dollar is in a bull market that very few understand, as the US dollar bull market represents “deflation” not inflation. Any emotional gold buying moves will never last as they are not based on sentiment, but based on fear!  Gold investors will run like chickens if this bottom does not hold.

The Gold/Gdx ratio is not all that bad at 66.54:1, but this ratio should expand much more before gold stocks become very cheap again.

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T-Bonds Bull Market Update

 

 

You may be hearing about US treasuries being dumped or sold off, but when the bearish news is rampant, and more rate increases seem imminent, then the markets do the exact opposite and reverse their trends. The bull market has reversed after every major crash or correction since 1981 and I’m sure it’s doing it again. T-Bonds hit a bottom on Oct, 9th at the 136.500 price level, and so far it’s still holding.  It’s not about rates rising that is killing the “T-Bonds”, but it’s the falling T-Bond prices that forces or allows the Fed to increase rates. The Fed is basing all rate increases on lagging indicators and if I’m right then sooner or later they will have to “pause”.

Since the 2000 crash bottom, we have had a solid bull market with some wild and crazy overlapping wave structures. “All” commodities can create these choppy waves, and that has been going on since the Little Ice Age bottom in 1500 CME.  T-Bonds are on a Supercycle degree wave 3 rally that has 120-year cycles to them. From the 1861 peak, T-Bonds took 120 years to complete a zigzag correction, and I’m sure the next real bullish phase top will not happen until 2101! 2041 would be a 60-year top and my Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. Of course, I can never confirm that as that would be a job for a very young analyst to do.

Two years and 6 months with well over 1 million page views, not a single budding wave analyst has expressed any interest in switching to Cycle degree wave analysis. With this lack of interest, chances are good I may shut down this blog permanently once solar cycle #25 starts to crank up in 2022.

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US Dollar Intraday Update

 

This morning the US dollar spike to the downside and then reversed quickly. The Euro did the same thing except the Euro is inverse to the US dollar. Calling for a massive gold bull market just doesn’t fit well if the US dollar is on a bullish reversal. Any sustained bullish move in gold will not happen if the US dollar is in a big bull market that nobody is talking about. Analysts think that the Euro is better than the US dollar when they are bullish on gold, but I don’t see it that way.

The Commercial hedgers are skewed to the bearish side of the US dollar by a wide margin, but the Euro does not confirm it. In a wild move, COT reports can shift very fast, as they can add 10,000 long contracts and at the same time 10-15,000 short contracts get removed.

What many do not understand is that the 2008 bottom of the US dollar was a “major” bear market low, which had its beginnings in 1985! This 23-year bear market was just a correction to an even bigger bull market still in progress.

2008 gave us a Cycle degree 4th wave bottom, which should never get completely retraced. Back in those days, the US dollar bearish mood was relentless and intense. The majority of analysts got fooled by that bottom, just like they were fooled by the Euro peak.

 

 

 

 

 

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Intraday E-Mini DJIA Rally Update

 

I think this market rally is just another bear rally, and it could be coming to an end this week. We had 3 moves that overlapped each other which are signs that the market is also going against the larger trend.  We are going to run into many of these types of rallies, but we may not be at my anticipated wave 2 in Minor degree at this time. Yes, we did get a great spike to the downside, which can happen at any major bottom, but they also show up, when we only have a correction.

Today the DJIA made a vertical move to the upside, so that is looking good for a reversal as vertical moves like this cannot be maintained for very long.  Hopefully, we will see more downside by the end of this week, and a new record low will certainly confirm it.  Any support we presently do have is just a temporary rest stop.

You can bet that there are large amounts of stop-loss “Sell Orders” below present prices which can get triggered,  like what happened between the 9th and 10th of October. If any dips get too large, certain safeguards can kick in so don’t expect a 1929 stock market crash to happen all in one day.

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HMMJ Reefer Madness In Canada!

 

 

This week is when the law comes down to legalize marijuana in Canada.  We keep hearing about a shortage of marijuana, but this is all about “legal” pot shortages as there are no shortages of any pot on the street.

If the legal stuff has to catch-up in supply then how can all the retail dispensaries create any earnings?  When the market realizes this, there could be a huge sell-off and this ETF would plunge.

Sure, there are lots of winner stocks but there are just as many losers.

Not until I see a clear correction from last months record high, will I turn bullish on any marijuana-related ETF.

There will be tax (GST ?) and a (SIN) tax as well, so this could dramatically change the positive outlook that the media is telling us.

Any move below $13 would sure help to confirm my bearish case, and sometime in the next few weeks, we should get a reaction?

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Crude Oil Weekly Chart Update. Will the Bullish Mood Last Forever?

 

All those analysts that report on the price of oil, work with fundamentals to justify future price increases in crude oil. In 1998 when oil was closer to $10, and a full-blown “oil glut crisis” was in progress, did the fundamentals at that time forecast a bull market to come?  That was close to 20 years ago, which many oil analysts don’t even remember! Right in the middle of the “world oil glut” crude oil prices started to turn and only looked back a few times, as oil roared up to $147 US dollars. No a single fundamental analyst at that time could forecast + $100 oil.

10 years later in 2008, crude oil was pushing $147, and the world experts declared a bull market and a massive shortage in crude oil. Every expert joined in on the “Peak Oil” bandwagon, as even more insane price forecasts were being regurgitated. $200-$300 crude oil price forecasts were not uncommon, as the world suffered another so-called shortage.

What do you think happened next? Sure enough, the markets screwed all the “expert analysts forecasts” and from about a $147  peak, oil started to crash, ending closer to $34 in a little better than 8 months!  If fundamentals really work, then we all should come up with a solid reason for each and ever major crude oil market turning.

At the 2008 bottom, more bearish calls for oil to fall too $20 were common, as another world oil glut was produced. Nobody expected a crude oil price turning, in a world flooded with oil, but ignoring the fundamantals, oil prices turned and a 5 year run followed, pushing crude oil back to $115 US.

Now when oil heads down, they dig up and report bearish oil news, and when the price of oil heads back down, all the bearsh oil news will come out. Commercials sure don’t support crude oil prices to go higher, as they are net short crude oil by a wide margin. The Gold/Oil ratio also gives us a clue that oil is very expensive when we use gold as money.

Gold/Oil ratio is sitting at 17:1 from which it has crashed once before.  Now 44:1 was extremely cheap in 2016, and oil had no choice but to soar once again. This time crude oil is closer to pushing $75-$80 with a 17:1 ratio.

2016 could be my wave 4 bottom in Cycle degree, but at this time a diagonal pattern is emerging.

Another big zigzag, or 5 diagonal waves producing many overlapping wave structures. From 1998 we had 7 waves, so the exact same thing can happen again, but it could take until 2038 before oil hits new record highs again. If the bigger bullish cycle is real then any anticipated crude oil correction should “Not” create new record lows, but stop well short of a new low!

Either way, any “A” wave in Primary degree can double as a wave 1 in Primary degree, which could take many years before my wave count gets trashed. A big market recession is coming, and chances are slim that the oil price will hold up.

In August China reported no US oil imports, but they like our cheap Canadian Oil prices.  Most of the oil news is, just a bunch of  “Jawboning”  and talking doesn’t change a trend, nor do government actions.

Gasoline prices have a head start already, as RBOB prices are imploding.  In the short term, oil can head higher, but a big correction should be on the way.

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SPY Crash And Impending Bear Market Update!

 

 

 

This SPY ETF is one of the most popular single ETFs that traders and investors use. Last week we had well over $70 billion traded in just one single day, so when the SPY heads down you can bet there is going to be insane volumes show up. The real top was in January 2018, not 8 months later that the majority use.  An expanded top is not some rare top as they do happen at smaller scales. Most wave counters ignore expanded patterns, but I try not to. Some peaks are impossible to sort out in the beginning, but we should get 5 waves own in Minor degree.

What we had last week is just a little wake-up call, and once investors see the SPY to continue to crash, they will no longer be as eager to but SPY ETF stock!  The $250 price level may give us temporary support but that should not hold in the long run.

Hopefully, we can find that “A” wave bottom in Primary degree, as that would give investors a better support base to work with. Again, if those analysts are calling to buy on the “dips” then those analysts have no clue how deep this bear market will eventually get. No wimpy 10%, 20% or even 40% correction is going to do the trick, as that will never make a dent into this leveraged world.

Real estate is the most over leverage asset class you can imagine, and it is even worse than the leverage with any 100-ounce gold futures contract. Give this big bearish phase 3-4 years to play out, but watch for the ending of solar cycle #24, and the start of solar cycle #25, as that will produce the next bull market.

The last thing we should do is to remain bearish when solar cycle #25 starts to poke through the northern hemisphere on the sun.  No trend lasts forever including bear markets, but if you’re not following the solar cycles now then, you will gain no confidence, once 2008 like bottom arrives again. Solar cycle #24 produced this bull market and 2022 should get us close to another exact same set-up!

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DAX 2009-2018 Cycle Degree Review

 

 

https://www.thelocal.de/20170424/germanys-ageing-baby-boomers-to-be-drain-on-economic-growth-report

The DAX has also turned down along with every other major index from around the world.  From the early 2009 bottom, the DAX charged along just like all other indices, but with far more choppy wave structures than others. Grading the quality of waves tells me we are much closer to diagonal wave structures than pure impulse wave structures. Early 2018 was the real top for the DAX, which has never been breached and is holding at 13,500.

The stock mania around the world has ended, as the world dips into a demographic nightmare that investors have little knowledge about. As the DAX crashes along with the rest of the world, I’m sure the mainstream media will have to find reasons why the market is imploding, and the story above is just one. More and more of this demographic risk will start to show up as the media will run out of all other excuses why stocks are crashing.

In the long run, until 2022, we should be in a bear market that is just starting to get going. As long as analysts are saying to “buy on the dips” then these analysts have no clue to the size of this impending bear market!

There are 30-year cycles at work here and this 2018 peak is 89 years after the 1929 stock market peak. We would be off by 1 year in 90, which is just 3, 30-year cycles. I have done thousands of these 30-year cycle calculations between 100’s of different peaks, and yet a one-year error rate seems to stay true.

This is not going to be a simple crash like 1987 was, as this time there should be a huge long bearish move like the 1930-1932 decline gave us. 1987 was a Minor degree crash, and what we are dealing with here is at least 3 degrees higher.

Deflation is the real threat and the first clue that the Fed is going to switch is if they start to use “pause”, in their language!

Where the first major support price level comes is not an exact science but I look for major previous bottoms to give us a clue. Any big previous low can supply support, but support for what?

 

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VIX Daily Chart Update.

 

This VIX responds to this as it is made up of options on the SP500. It is the main reason why the VIX contains such wild moves. Impulse waves are a rare luxury in the VIX, so if you don’t understand the wild patterns involved, we can’t get close to see a reversal in stocks.

The VIX bear market also ended in early 2018, after which the VIX exploded as my potential “A” wave in Intermediate degree.  We do have a vertical spike, from which we can get a correction or the end of a larger trend. The high of $28 has been reached and the next few weeks will tell, as I think the $50 price level still needs to get retraced. Ultimately the VIX should exceed the $90 price level, but not on this trip. The VIX pointing straight up is a buy signal for stocks, but it could also be a very short buy signal. When we hit the Primary degree top of the VIX, this is when we can take some long positions for the impending “B” wave counter rally still to come. One more move above 50 may do it, but only time will help confirm that.

Falling wedges create some kick-ass reversals, and the VIX is a prime example of that. The US dollar has a large falling wedge as well, as both will produce new long-term trends.

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Silver Daily Chart Update!

 

One thing about silver is that it walks to a different drummer than what the gold pattern has created. The same “B” wave triangle was a rising “B” wave. Even the gold stock ETFs were pointing down much like silver, and not gold.  When we pay too much attention to gold, we are being brainwashed and ignore silver in the process. This silver cash is only about $1.80 away from breaking a new record low which would be below $13 which is a Fibonacci number. In order for silver to be very bullish, it would have to surpass and exceed all those inverted zigzags I show presently.

Any triangle always forces a wave position to change degree levels, which can be 1 or even 2-degree level changes. In this case an Intermediate degree, and a Primary degree bottom at the same time.

The US dollar hasn’t died yet, as it just wants to keep pushing higher, keeping all gold related investments subdued at best.  Silver had a very choppy rally that defies any impulse specifications, so I see this as just another bear market rally fooling the majority of investors.

What the majority of gold investors don’t understand is that the 2011 peak was a 30-year “mania” commodities peak counting from the 1980 inflationary peak, with a ± 1-year error rate.  So 2011 was 30 years plus 1! Your next Supercycle commodities peak will come in 2041, which I will never see, but my grandkids will certainly live and invest in.

Diagonal wave structures dominate commodities as they have been doing that for the entire Submilllennium degree wave 3. I have created a template and an idealized chart in a very large format like 24×55 inches. 2 for diagonal wave patterns and 2 for the impulse wave patterns. These were professionally scanned by wide format scanners so the originals will print out 24×55 inches if so desired. Postage size charts just won’t cut it with me, as even 8×10 printouts are better than the shit we inside our computers.

 

 

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S&P Midcap Daily Chart Crash Update

 

My wave 3 in Cycle degree peaked back in January of 2018, not August of 2018 like the herd of analysts are telling us.  When the media is calling for a potential buy on the “dip”, then they have no clue how big this impending bear market is going to get! The stock mania has already ended folks, as it ended in January 2018. This secondary peak the markets struggled with, belongs to the bear market, as it is an expanded type of a top. Expanded tops are not strange or rare as they can happen in other wave positions as well, like in a wave 3-4 correction.  I could type until my fingers are “raw” explaining the expanded pattern, yet very few wave analysts can even see them.

5 waves down in Minor degree, is what I’m after, and I don’t think we are even close to any potential wave 1-2 position in Minor degree.  We can see how emotional traders really are as all those bulls are now being slaughtered by the stock bulls. If we hear the words “Support”, then ask yourself, “Support for what”?  Some flimsy price level created from a shape-shifting top will throw all wave counts off, and that is only if wave analysts are even close in their wave counting positions!  This is not a GSC, nor SC degree peak, as SC degree is still decades away, in your future. The impending bottom could be closer to 2022, so we have lots of time for this bear market to shred all bullish investments.

The 2008 crash was just a small example of what can happen, and if investors think, it can’t happen again, then they will be wrong and pay dearly for it!  Many experts are telling us to invest for the long-term, and stay the course!  How did that work for stock investors in 1929, 2002 or 2008?  From the 2009 bottom to our present peaks, MidCap investors would have gained 500% in 9 years.

Now they are trying to beat the market, but as usual, the markets will “beat” investors to a pulp.  Are you ready for a 70%-80% correction? The trick of buying on the dips will not work if we don’t know that we are staring into the Grand Canyon. There is a generational shift in effect which will cause the price “deflation” of assets, but the media calls “price deflation a market correction”.

Sooner or later they will start the “blame game”  as they always have to find a scapegoat for investors troubles! If you want reasons for the markets decline then just do a little research in what the “Boomers” are doing. Since 2011, 10,000 “Boomers” have been retiring every day and do you think they will leave their money at risk if they knew about the generational shift?

All those boomers retiring, do you think they can brag about selling at the top? Nobody I know of can tell me that they have retired with all their mutual funds intact paying them during retirement.

seen some “Unusally” high amount of visits, to the point I registered over 7000 hits in 24 hours.

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Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart Update

 

When any wave positions I have, that do not seem to fit well, then I try and review  any 5 wave sequence I might be working on.  In this case there is still a very good chance that our Cad still has to crash to a new record low, even if it just makes a brief double bottom.  The only way that I can make the 4th wave fit, is that the 5th wave is a diagonal wave structure. An inverted zigzag 4th wave is still the best fit. Commercials have a net long position, but not enough to turn super bullish on our dollar!

Our Canadian dollar has to soar to support a surging gold price, but this is still far away from happening. The AUD has far more commercial net long positions, with a ratio of more than 5:1.

The CAD Market Vane Report (MV) is fairley bullish, with about 47-48% bulls present with Tuesday’s report that leaves lots of room for bulls to come back in.

Even when some COT reports get to an extreme, they can make dramatic shifts, but dumping longs, at the same time they take on short positions can extend any trend.

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XGD S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index Review.

 

This is just an index related to the gold mining industries. What was always odd was that this index never really created the “C” wave as deep as I would expect. Even a running pattern would have a longer “C” than what XGD shows. All the other ETFs sure don’t look like this, as they were all much, much lower.  Back down in late 2013, news that insiders were buying was everywhere, that I was convinced that 2013 was a major bottom. What followed was a rally and then another 3 wave decline to a new record low, which I have as a “B” wave in Minor degree.

After the “B” wave bottom XGD soared and pushed up right into my wave 2 in Intermediate degree. This insane rally was a 4th wave rally, that pointed or confirmed my wave 2 top in 2012. Of course, that would break every impulse rule in the book, but it sure doesn’t break any diagonal rules that I know of.

One expanded pattern at the bottom gives us the big clue that this entire bullish phase is nothing but a big bear market rally!  “ALL” bear market rallies completely retrace themselves back down to and below their point of origin. When it crosses to new lows, even just by pennies, then the bear market rally will get confirmed.

When we get close we, then we can see a huge H&S pattern being formed, and that would be extremely bullish from my perspective.

I have to do more back-checking to establish a few more Gold/XGD ratio extremes. Today the Gold/XGD ratio is sitting at 3.97:1, which means I need 3.97 gold ounces to buy one unit of the XGD index.

Don’t think that this is some freakish anomaly, because they do happen, especially in commodities.

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Markets Take a beating: DJIA Intraday Record High Update

 

This record peak that the media has beat to death for months, has finally reversed. Just a “correction”? Sure, a Cycle degree correction that could see the DJIA crash down to 7100! Is that the type of a correction you were looking for?  What this peak contains is an expanded top which would be the lead-in to an “A” wave bottom in Primary degree. After that bottom gets confirmed, then the rest of the pattern will just look like a giant zigzag. 5 waves down in Minor degree is what I will be looking for, which would finish the “C” wave crash that has started. Moves like this can extend beyond reason or beyond what anyone expects at this time.  I target 3-degree levels higher than Cycle degree and 3-degree levels below Cycle degree, and until Cycle degree wave 5 is completed, the largest corrective degree I can have is Primary degree.  Many other asset classes have already hit a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom, but the markets are still 3-4 years from doing that. 2022 would be the target date.  You will get a few guys that will constantly fill you in why the markets are heading down, but they can use the same excuse or reason when the markets go up.

Still,  we need to give it all a bit more time and distance to make sure the markets mean business this time.

 

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Gold Daily Chart: Resuming The Bearish Trend?

Gold did hit a bottom at $1160, but that was a pretty docile type of a bottom, just like all the others before it has been.  Bear markets do not end with a whimper, especially anything related to the commodities markets.  The people that say, stocks, gold, oil can’t crash together better check your history, as it sure happened in 1929-1932. It also happens in 2008 as everything except the US dollar got dragged down as well.  The common belief that gold is just in a bull market correction, do not understand that 2011 was a 30-year commodities mania peak. 2011 is a Cycle degree wave 3 top, which only happens once every 30 years ± 1 year.

This wave position came back from hibernation as we could be in a wave 1-2 rally in Minute degree. Do not underestimate the power for gold to move with great speed when it wants to, as these types of declines can also produce “Gaps” on the way down.  Any $142 drop would crash gold below $1047, which I consider would be a walk in the park for gold.

You can beat your head up against the wall if you try to inject fundamentals to explain every move gold makes. Fundamentals are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. They change like the wind because they ignore the biggest fundamentals of them all and that is “people”. There is a huge “fundamental generational shift in effect” as 10,000 Boomers have been retiring every day since 2011.

Also when Generation X hit the average age of 46, which is their peak spending years, it will reduce the “velocity of money” in the economy as well. Those are all “fundamentals” that nobody talks about but are critical to the future gold price and its large cycles.

This insane real-estate mania will also turn into a bust, which we know is happening just from lumbers futures ongoing price crash. Deflation is the real threat as T-Bonds will soar and the US dollar keeps pushing higher.

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Euro Daily Chart Bearish To The Bone?

 

The Euro repelled to the downside after  3-4 attempts at breaking out and is now threatening support. What I see is a potential triangle inside a 4th wave, which is also a warning that a bigger degree bottom is coming. I brought back my  Euro bearish wave counts, and if they are true then that does not bode well for the metals and gold stock ETFs that I cover.  Wishing that Gold will soar, has no hope of happening just yet because the Euro moves inversely to the US dollar.  What all this means, is that the Euro bear market is far from finished, and should hit new bear market lows. That may happen this year, as we have a lot of empty space below the present positions. It’s not completely empty space, as it contains more Euro futures stop-loss sell orders that we can count. It also contains any futures options positions that can expire on any Friday.

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T-Bonds December Intraday Chart: Potential Bottom?

 

 

Shortly after I posted the big T-Bond chart, the T-Bond market at the intraday scale hit a bottom. Of course, that could be just luck, but T-Bonds produced a very bullish pattern because a set of 5 waves started to form.  It can still be a fake bottom, but that should clear up this week if possible.   The news changed quickly as they are saying the “pressure” to keep rates moving higher, was eased!  I do not fill out all the little micro moves, as that’s for people that have nothing else better to do.  If we can count all the little waves, then how come we can’t see a bull market coming?

This morning confirmed the correction, but in order for it to remain true, T-Bonds must not produce another bear market low.  President Trump is already giving the Fed the gears, so the in-fighting has become pretty clear to me.  Every Fed has done this in the past, which has always popped any bubble,  going on at that time. If this specific correction doesn’t hold, then there will be another, as T-Bonds are in a bull market, not a bear market like the majority think!

All the Commercial reports regarding Bonds show bullish commitments. Bearish wave counts will always fail if we keep ignoring the COT reports, or if we have bearish wave counts, along with every other T-Bond bear!  I will keep this short, as gold and gold stocks could also go much lower.

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US Dollar Daily Chart: Still Heading North!

 

The recent rally in the US dollar could be just Submiuette degree but it is enough to question any bearish wave counts I was working. At least in the short-term. I looked at last weeks USD COT report, and they are about as bearish as I have ever seen them. 25:1 is what we have right now, while the speculators are doing the exact opposite.

The speculators only have a 6.68:1 net long position, but they are the ones that always get into a trap in one direction or another.  The thing is, the traders in the Euro do not support such a bullish outlook just yet. As I was counting out the Euro at the intraday level, it sure looked like a small triangle has completed. Invert the Euro and we see the same thing with the US dollar.

The US dollar rally will sure keep the lid on gold prices, which may change on a month to month basis.  Even a “Head” is forming, which you will see if we draw an invisible angle line.

Any small correction can still happen but otherwise, I would need a complete set of 5 waves in Minute degree.  The 2008 bottom of the US dollar was a Cycle degree wave 4, so there is no chance the US dollar is on some manipulated path to kill any gold rally. The future threat is not inflation but it’s deflation and this FED rate increase is still fighting inflation.  Even at these elevated price levels, the USD has no room to make a long decline, so that also keeps the US dollar in a long-term bull market. Inflation has nothing to do with how much they print, but it’s all got to do with the “Velocity” of any money in the economy.

It’s the demographic age shift of the “Boomer” generation that will slow down future velocity. Since 2011, 10,000 “boomers” are retiring every single day, which will last until about 2030.  It’s not rocketing science folks as all those boomers will need to cash in their RRSPs and downsize as we become non-productive, leaving the workforce in droves. I’m still very productive, as my little mouse finger does all the heavy lifting. 🙂

I will keep this update short for now, as I may have to make changes, but it may last until the end of this month before, clearer picture forms.

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SP500 1980-2018 Bull Market Review

 

The 1980-1981 time period was a pivotal year of some major turnings. In 1980 the gold price peaked and then crashed, while stocks were ready to soar. Stocks soared for a 20-year run until the dot-com bust in 2000!  The year 2000 was just an Intermediate degree wave 3 peak and followed by the 4th wave bottom in Intermediate degree. The 2007 peak was weak, and just barely fit into wave 3 in Primary degree. During the 2008 crash, nothing was left unscathed, as all asset classes took a beating, except for the US dollar, as it exploded in price during that time. 2008 was only a Primary Degree deflationary crash, but since the January 2018 peak, we are facing a Cycle degree wave 4 crash that will make 2008 look like a garden party!

Any crash will not happen in one move but it will take 3 moves to complete and should be a longer decline than in 2002. It should also take longer for the Cycle degree crash to play out. This will be my third bear market crash I will be counting out, which looks like it contains an expanded pattern, that most wave analysts, ignore or they are not watching for any of these expanded flat patterns to occur.  The Intermediate degree “C” wave decline should stop at the “A” wave in Primary degree, which could see a move down to the previous 4th wave. This still could take the rest of the year to play out.

2022 will be the expected bottom, which could end up well short of breaking new record lows. Megaphone and single trend lines are pretty useless in forecasting a bottom, as the markets will always try to fool us, doing something nobody expects. 2008 was also a solar cycle #23 bottom which was the main power that sent the markets soaring again.  Most big market crashes happen 1-2 years before a solar cycle bottom, and the exact same situation will be setting up by 2022 when solar cycle #25 starts to crank up. If you don’t think that the sun affects the markets on earth then, I suggest you do a few hundred years of research as it has happened many times before.

1932 was another one of those times, which makes 2022 a 90-year bottom. (3, 30-year cycles) 30-year cycles dominate the commodities world, and to some extent, the stock markets also have this 30-year cycle. The world has been building into the most inflated world in financial history, much like the 1929 time period.

The demographic shift of the aging boomers is going to be the main reason why deflation, and not inflation will be the real threat. Since 2011, 10,000 boomers are retiring every day, which should continue until about 2030. It’s not rocket science, what these boomers have to do as they will not leave their money tied into stocks, and they will have to start selling off their investments. Boomers already took a beating in 2008 but were told to stay in it for the long term. Yah, Right! Who in their right mind can handle a 70% or 80% stock market crash?  Nobody can build a “bullet proof” investment portfolio, unless you can jump into cash, in a very short period of time. F.O.M.O keeps investors in the markets until they are so scared and ready to throw in the “white towel”, when the crash starts to get serious.

When that happens then chances are very good that the markets will turn and soar in another 8-13 year bull market, with 2029 being a potential Primary degree wave 3-4 correction.

 

 

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Nikkei Stock Index: 1989-2018 Review

 

The Nikkei is a prime example what a real bear market can look like when demographic shifts are involved. This bear market always gave me trouble, so I had multiple alternatives to try, or should I say, “forced to try”!  This time I looked at the wave positions as one giant triangle, with the potential of coming up to the “D” wave in Primary degree. The mood between a “B”, “D”,  Diagonal 1, or an Impulsive wave 1 in a bull market, are next to impossiable to tell apart.

Any asset class on this planet that goes up has a bullish mood to it.  The best way to tell them apart is by the pattern it is making in gettting  there.

There is a high probability, an “E” wave in Primary degree is coming,  which would push the Nikkei to new record lows. This low would also be building a huge bottom base ending in 2022, along with all other world markets. Even if the 2009 bottom is the Cycle degree wave 4 bottom, we would still need a hefty correction between a 60% and 80% net retracement. Every stock index will join the bearish party, as the Nikkei will not stand up to the bears. 2008-2009 is a prime example of how many asset classes crashed together, so I expect it can happen again.

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Euro Weekly Chart Review

 

Since 2008 the Euro has been in a decline or bear market with wild counter-rallies thrown in to keep us all confused, in what the real direction of the Euro is.

The Euro makes up about 57.6% of the US dollar basket, so there is no chance that the Euro will wander in some direction other than inversely to the US dollar. I’m working a  Primary degree diagonal wave 1 with the USD,  but this would be inversed when we look at the Euro. The Euro will not separate itself from gold as the Euro bull market and gold sync up extremely well.

I’m a bit suspicious with my short-term wave positions as we would need a bullish phase to complete wave 2 up in Primary degree. If the bottom has completed, then the Euro should push higher, creating new bullish highs in the process. We have 3 months for this market to give us a clear, “make or break” type of move.

 

 

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Nifty: It’s More Than Just A Correction!

 

It looks like we had our peak just a bit over a month ago, and now the Nifty has shown us in what direction it really wants to go.  It looks like an expanded pattern may also have been completed. Many times the resulting “C” wave can be very steep and the Nifty sure fits that description.

No country is going to avoid or be able to hide from the impending deflationary crash that is coming. What happened in 2008, was just a Primary degree crash and recession but this time it’s bigger by “one” degree. We are heading to a Cycle degree wave 4 bottom that will not be over in just a month or two, but it could take until 2022 before the end of a bear market is near. There is no chance that I can keep up with giving detailed Nifty declines and wave counts, as the Minor degree is 3 degrees below Cycle degree.

All those experts that are telling you to buy on the “Dips” have no clue how big this bear market will get or how long it will take. After 2022 it could take a 19-year bull market before the Nifty hits new record highs, based on the 30-year cycle. The 30-year Cycle ended in 2011, but some dates will be out by a 1 year or so, especially when expanded patterns are involved.

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TLT: Fear Of Higher Rates Impending Reversal!

I have inserted this graphic several times already, which shows the dynamics of bond prices and interest rate increases. From my perspective, it starts with bond prices falling, which allows the Fed to keep raising rates. US Treasuries are controlled by investors at large, not by the whims or votes of 7 regional bank governors that make up the Fed.

The time will come, when the Fed may give a surprise announcement for a temporary pause, which would be the clearest signal that rate increases are unjustified and will reverse. The 30-day Fed Fund Rate is also part of what the Fed can actually do.

 

TLT is very popular and if it keeps crashing, then we will get more rate increases, but the fear mongering about run-away rate increases is unjustified for any reason. Fundamentals are all lagging indicators.

Fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes, as the majority of the world uses fundamental analysis to make forecasts with.

The COT reports do not justify this massive sell-off as last weeks report showed net long positions across all maturities, which is a clear signal that an impending reversal will happen.

TLT may not be that old but if it was present in 1981, it would still be in a bull market, and what we have right now is just a correction in that bull market. This bull market will not finish until 2101! There is a 120-year cycle in T-bonds and TLT, that have 2, 60-year turnings in them.

1981 was a 120-year bear market bottom! Imaging a bear market that looks like the crude oil crash or the KOL crash, but take 120 years to play out!

We may never get a good price support forecast, but once the bottom is in, we should see steady bullish progress. This bull market is far from being dead, but the world thinks it is. New TLT record highs are coming, as I see this bearish pattern, as just a correction in a bull market.

Supercycle degree wave 3, is just 23 years away, and should peak closer to 2041!

 

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Apple New Record High And The Fibonacci Number $233!

 

Apple topped out early yesterday and seems to be heading down along with all the other indices. I call it the “Buffet Rally” as he was buying at record highs for months. Nobody else has that kind of money to throw around, as it seems he created the bull market in Apple as he was buying. Apple stock is held by many hedge funds and big investment funds, but they will have no stomach holding onto Apple stock when Apple continues to crash.

I keep about 20 gold/ratios in my ratio pool, and Apple just peaked out with a Gold/Apple ratio of 5.27:1.

This is an all-time ratio expensive reading for what I have records for. The previous most expensive ratio was 7.85:1, which has now been broken by a wide margin. Those that call Apple as a good investment have no clue about the insane Gold/Apple ratio displayed here today!

I will work the expanded version at this time, and even then Apple topped at a Fibonacci number of $233!  Can Apple crash down to $144? Sure it can and even more if we consider a Cycle degree wave 4 crash is coming.

Buying on the dips will slaughter investors if they don’t understand how serious the coming recession-depression will be. Not until Solar Cycle #25 starts up, would I bet that Apple will be a good investment again.

Of course, you may have to wait 3-4 years before that happens. 2022 is an expected bottom as years ending with a “2” seemed to spawn huge bull markets.

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US Dollar Intraday Rally End!

 

I’m sure this bull rally would be a concern for gold investors but the shorter term we could be heading to a wave 2 bottom in Primary degree. It’s the US dollar that will drive any gold bullish phase, not a bunch of emotional investors running to a safe haven asset class. This may work short-term but long-term deflation is the real threat, which means that the US dollar bull market is far from over, as I expect 5 waves up in Primary degree, which could take until 2041 to peak out. In 2008 the USD bottomed, so 30 years from 2008 could get us a peak in 2038.

This move may be too early for a wave two peak in Minor degree, so I have reduced the degree level, by one degree.  Gold will benefit from a US dollar decline, but this may only last until late 2019 or early 2020.

Those that ignore the ongoing “Boomer Crisis” and the huge demographic shift, will not understand the deflation that is coming. How much money a nation prints,  has nothing to do with “deflation” or “nflation”, but it all has to do with the “velocity” of any money.

If you think that 10,000 from 80 million + boomers retiring per day is inflationary then, I suggest you research it, as it is a worldwide problem. Boomers that have not moved away from the risk facing them, will lose the majority of their assets if they invest for the long term.

 

 

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Nasdaq Intraday Chart Crash Update!

 

The Nasdaq peaked 3 days ago and since then the Nasdaq has reversed, and is now heading south. Any new record high can always be the “Last” record high for the year. This would be a “B” wave peak in Intermediate degree which is part of an expanded pattern for Cycle degree wave 3.  I will keep these updates a bit short, but all my indiceies I cover seemed to have turned south in the last few days. The bears attack from above, as fundamantals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes. In general, markets act to the opposite of fundamentals, as the majority all tried to bail out in late 2009. The majority cannot see crashes or bull markets coming, but with the huge “Boomer” demographic shift in effect, you can bet there will be deflation on our future. This will take until 2022, when I expect Cycle degree wave 4 to bottom, which is the same length of time the markets crashed for in the 1929 and 1932 bear markets.

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DJIA Record High Intraday Peak Update

 

Since late yesterday, the 5 indices I cover all seemed to peak and then started a strong decline. The peak we see in this intraday chart could be one out of a million, but if we don’t locate this peak then all our wave counts will just be a good guessing game.

The majority of investors are all leveraged to the long side and it’s only a matter of time before they realize that the shit has hit the fan, and they too will start to unload. The stock bubble the world is investing in has far surpassed the stock market mania that peaked in 2000.

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T-Bonds Bull Market Supercycle Degree Update!

 

Here is a cute little chart that shows the dynamics that goes on when we look at bonds. It is a bit of a chicken and egg story in which comes first. I also flip this saying around, “When Bond Prices Fall, Interest Rates Rise”.

The Fed can only raise rates in what the bond market and the 30-Day Fed fund rate allows them to do. The Fed runs on fundamental data, which I know are always lagging indicators. I for one do not believe in rates getting out of control, as the FED is always fighting the wrong battle at the wrong times.

The future threat is “deflation” folks, not inflation. If you don’t believe that just yet, then I beg you to spend the entire day searching the internet with, ” 10,000 Boomers retiring every day for the next 19 years”. Economists, climate change models, and investors are ignoring this biggest demographic shift in history! This has been going on since 2011 and will continue until about 2030.

This demographic shift has huge implications for all types of real estate investments, or static investments like gold and silver. Below is the monthly T-Bond chart price that hit a 120-year low in 1981. It has been bullish through all types of crashes and bear markets since then.

I tried the 1981 bottom position in GSC degree, but GSC degree has too many time forecast loopholes in it, so I dropped down one degree to a Supercycle degree wave 2. 5 waves up in Cycle degree is what we are looking at, and wave 1 in Cycle degree has not arrived yet.

I was suspicious about the T-Bond top containing an expanded pattern, which means the asset class in question, should make another new record bull market high. When we add 120 years ( 4, 30-year cycles) to the 1981 bottom we get the year 2101, which is my Submillennium degree wave 3 peak!

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Crude Oil Impending Correction?

 

The 2016 bottom has a different price, with these extra bars I have added. The big thing is that this low sure can fit into my Cycle degree wave 4 low. Yes, they are all diagonal wave structures, which contain connecting zigzags.

The bull market from the 1999 bottom to the 2008 peak contained a zigzag, so I would be looking for about the same pattern to develop. The Gold/Oil ratio has hit below 16:1 today, but that may still be not enough to topple or correct this oil bullish phase.

Everybody is talking $100 oil price, but I think the $89 price level might have more importance this time. The most challenging pattern until Cycle degree wave 5 is reached, is 5 diagonals waves, where this would be an “ABC1” wave count in Primary degree.

Heating oil and RBOB gasoline have an 88% reading of bulls present in my recent Market Vane Report (M.V)

This does not mean, that more bulls can’t come to the party, but it means there is not much room left on the bullish side. Any vertical move has a speed limit to it, as most vertical moves cannot be maintained.

Can gold head north and crude oil head south at the same time? Yes, they can, but the gold/oil ratio will not allow that to happen for very long.

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Silver Double Bottom, Weekly Chart Review!

 

I see the silver peak of 2011, as a mania cycle degree peak, that comes along once every 30 years, with a reliability of  ± 1 year.  Silver has always been marching to a different drummer, and the main reason I see is that silver is in a diagonal wave structure, just like “All” commodities are. If the bottom is in, then silver should soar as well as gold.

Silver was just short of a downside breakout but is now producing a double bottom that they may call a “truncated” move, I call it a running pattern, which can create a very bullish move. We would also have an H&S setup, which also adds to the bullish scenario.

At the $34 price level silver would be running into critical resistance, but it should travel much higher than that 2016 peak. The same resistance level for gold would be at the $1800 price level.

Don’t expect silver to soar to $200 or more, as normal wave counting will never work with commodities.

I have a running triangle, which always dictates that a higher degree wave position must be found!  That may not happen until my 5 waves in Minor degree are finished,  including the “C” wave in Intermediate degree.

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