April Crude Oil Daily Chart Review

If I was a conventional wave analyst like the majority I would turn this into a bullish wave count with little effort. Easy wave counting is for suckers that have nothing better to do but count every little micro mini wave structure which we need an electron scanning microscope to see. Most all my wave counts that I’m after are three-degree levels below Cycle degree and three-degree levels above Cycle degree. Besides that “All” commodities run with idealized diagonal patterns that few wave analysts use.

The bull market from 1999 to the 2008 peak is a prime example of how forcing a 3 wave bull market into a 5 wave bull market can keep us chasing our tails for decades.  Any crude oil wave counts only started in 1850 which is close to the Grand Supercycle degree wave 1-2. Before 1850 the world ran on whale oil until they were hunted to extinction. The majority do not realize that without this energy source our present world could have never been built.

In a few years time, you will never even see these intraday waves and we will never know if an expanded pattern actually happened. Besides that, all the Miniscule wave counting is worthless if we can’t see a big crash or big bull market coming.  They say you can’t time the markets and to some extent they are right, but any investment is only as good as it’s timing.  The 2016 low was another prime example as analysts were forecasting that lower oil prices were still to come. Yet crude oil bottomed at about the $28 price level and then started to soar. Next thing we know investors started to jump on the oil bandwagon as $100 oil forecasts started to become popular again.

I use the gold ratio frequently which gives strong hints when some asset class is too expensive or is to cheap when compared to the cash price of gold. The cheap ratio in 2016 hit 44:1 which is the most extreme ratio that I have ever recorded. I was bullish before oil hit a bottom until this ratio started to shift again. The magic expensive ratio number in the past hit 17:1 twice and oil turned and crashed each time. Today, and since January 2019, this ratio has been averaging just below 24:1. This April contract is sitting at 23.81:1 and for 2019 seems to be hitting the 24:1 Gold/Oil ratio brick wall.

As I post, oil is still heading higher just above the Fibonacci $55 price level and at the very least we should get a strong correction.  Oil is still under the sign of the Death Cross but found support at the 50-day MA for now. All it takes is some fake fundamental news to get published and all these bullish traders can turn into instant bears. The world is changing folks, where false news or propaganda and Artificial Intelligence (AI) brainwashing is becoming normal. What the movie “1984” showed us would be a Sunday picnic compared to what is already happening.

 

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