The SP500 has been dragging its feet and really has gone nowhere fast.
The media constantly talks about a recession but the markets are still sitting at record highs.
You would figure prices of the indices would be sliced in halve buy now, but they are not.
Any Tweet by Trump could get investors running for cash as we still have 2.5 months of time left when markets take the time to crash.
October, 24,1929 would be a 90-year anniversary date.
Since early 2018 the US dollar has been on a bullish march that defies logic as a 5th wave. We are now sitting 0n the 200 MA line which supplies some type of support, at least temporary support.
It should be a deeper correction if the previous 4th wave is a Minute degree. Only time will tell. You would figure gold would react to the USD decline but it has been rather subdued through the entire US Dollar decline. Even silver has been very docile lately as it has moved very little.
There is not much to report with gold as it seems to be stuck in limbo right now, even though the US dollar has gone on a downward slide.
Gold would have to slide a minimum of $120 just to get close to that 200 day MA.
I will try and update the SP500 and the DOW but they haven’t moved much from record highs as well.
My intent was to eliminate all other months and stay with the December contracts for the rest of the year. This is still the November month as it slipped past me.
The recent rally still looks corrective so $50 is still on the table from my perspective, or let’s say it’s still on my wish list.
I refuse to spend my time regurgitating all the fundamental analysis out there as they change with the wind. Since 2019 there were about 6 swings in different directions in oil and I bet very few readers remember what fundamental news events happened for each one.
The short version is that when analysts hype a certain direction it gets up and goes the opposite direction.
The Gold/Oil ratio is about 27:1 and it might compress a bit more in the next few weeks, and it takes the Gold/Oil ratio 35-40:1 before oil becomes cheap again.
It sure looks like the silver bearish phase is continuing but gold is lagging behind. Gold can give us a bullish wave count while silver fits into a 4th wave rally very well.
Silver has walked to a different drummer for as long as I have been tracking it, so I do not expect it to change.
Silver is $3.65 away from crashing to new record lows while gold has a much further distance to cover.
Only time will answer that question which could take to the end of the year or longer.
The September results have been posted and we had 23 days of no sunspot activity. The sun is not completely dormant as there are lots of other actions on the sun to send solar storms our way.
As long as the northern lights shine, we know solar storms and CMEs are blowing.
We had one day where two spots were active but both were from different number cycles. This is to be expected and may continue for the rest of the year.
HUI is the unhedged gold-stock related index and it also never even came close to soaring past the 2016 highs. Many analysts were calling for the HUI or gold stocks to catch-up but they have done that at every major bullish run but has also failed each time.
Since this is just a potential 4th wave bear market rally. The HUI doesn’t have to make a deep historic low as double bottoms or even triple bottoms can happen.
Either way we need another zigzag decline in Minor degree (Blue) so that should get all the gold bulls excited again.
The majority were waiting for GDX to perform like gold itself, but GDX never even got out of the gate as we are still waiting.
GDX never cleared 2016 high while gold soared into the previous wave 2 which makes it a diagonal pattern.
Silver and much other gold-related ETF performed much less which makes all rallies fit a 4th wave bear market rally. Obviously, the public doesn’t know what an Elliott Wave bear market rally is, as they just use the standard 20% retracement description.
SLV is a prime example of how much difference is between GDL and SLV.
Even the Gold/Gdx ratio hasn’t changed that much at 53:1 and I want to see that number spread much more with 84:1 being on the cheap side of my ratio data base.
The bull market in T-Bonds started in early 1982 and is still going at this time. I would love to see T-Bonds break above 178 to help confirm that the bull market is not dead yet.
Worst case scenario we could slip into a triangle type. correction so that it can use up much more time.
Commercials are far from hold very bearish positions so my confidence in the bullish scenario remains.
The Euro is in a long decline but had a little counter-rally this morning. I think this Euro bearish phase is still a long way away from finishing as I would like to see the Euro fall below 1.04 first.
The Euro choppy phase started after a 4th wave completed so I expect that to continue right to the end. The Euro and the USD have much of the same pattern but inverse to each other.
When the Brexit Plans may seem to work then I can see the Euro react differently, but we may have to wait until the snow falls before we see positive results.
So far oil has performed as I had hoped, with a spike being formed today. It’s not a long spike as I would like to see oil hit $50 and the analysts making very bearish forecasts.
Analysts are giving mixed signals which usually can send oil soaring once more. I have made a one-degree change which brings the entire bullish cycle that started in 2016 closer to another “A” wave in Primary degree.
I’m going to keep it simple, counting down from the September highs. It’s a diagonal wave so chances are good another diagonal wave decline is going to happen.
Below and old price of $1375 would be nice but that could be a short term illusion. In the long run, gold could hit a major double bottom at $1050 and what will be important if a zigzag has formed.
The potential to completely retrace the entire zigzag is too great to ignore. It could still be a year or more away so patience is the key.