US Dollar Weekly Chart Review

Regardless of all the bad news that is coming out the USD seems to be making bullish progress but in a very choppy way. This is a sign of a diagonal wave structure, so I will be looking for zigzags to keep showing up. This happens in 5th waves but wave 1-2 is ahead of us and we do have some time left.

Will it take all of October or more bad news about the impeachment of President Trump?

Commercials are net short by a wide margin so a bullish wave count has a battle all the way.

The thing is that the 2008 bottom was a “Major” bottom and was the bottom of wave 4 in Cycle degree. That means we should be in a 5 wave sequence bull market in Primary degree.

Gold bugs need a major USD decline to make them happy, but I think that’s not going to happen soon.

Eventually, the USD has to move above the 103.802 price level but that’s when some serious resistance also comes into effect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gold Weekly Chart Review

One of my previous gold and silver chart update I still had it as a “B” wave top. With this wave count, I switched back to a 4th diagonal 4th wave rally.  The 4th wave dipped into wave 1 in Intermediate degree, but silver was far from it which makes it fit far better as a 4th wave still in effect.

Does gold have to crash below $1050? Not really but it sure can produce a wild double bottom. Either way, another zigzag could form but it could be an ugly one.

This 4th wave pushes time of the “A” wave in Primary degree into the future a few years, and we could expect a great bear market rally ride during solar cycle $25.

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Crude Oil Daily Chart Update

This is the December contract with moving averages showing. The golden cross didn’t last too long and we are still in the spell of a death cross. We could dip into another death cross so that makes it a pretty bearish scenario at this time.

The spike at my “B” wave top was a small double top which should hold until oil visits $50 again.  A flat inside a “B” wave could send oil to a screeching stop at $50, joining the other two obvious spikes.

We are looking at a Gold/Oil Ratio of 26.85 which is not all that bad, but this ratio should spread in the next few months if this bearish trend continues.

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Nasdaq Daily Chart Update

Not much has changed except that the Nasdaq also started to take a dip which I believe is a wave 1-2 development. The Nasdaq needs to take out the 7400 price level and eventually the 6900 price level as well.

I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction which could take until early 2021 when solar cycle 25 starts to crank up. The 4 month crash into late 2018 traveled fast enough, so anything that happens once can happen again. When the analysts scream “Black Monday” then chances are good that the worst is over and we should look for widespread insider buying, buying their own stock back.

There are some ugly stocks in the Nasdaq and they need to go bankrupt and get tossed out of the index.

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Silver Daily Chart Update

Silver has also completed a wave 2 but I’m using Minor degree this time. Silver marches to a different drummer alright as it did not get the media attention as gold certainly did.

Silver gets attention when it soars but since it seems to be dying again analysts get bored and move on.  Silver is also just $ 4.43 away from staying on the bullish side, otherwise if silver falls below $13.58 it becomes a false bull market, which is a bear market rally from my perspective.

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Gold Daily Chart Update

It took a little while but I think a wave 1-2 has completed and from this point, forward price support at $1480 will no longer work.

I may have changed my starting degree by one but that can be done later.  For the big picture, I need a zigzag in Intermediate degree which means my small starting degree could be Minor degree.

 

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Publishing Announcement!

To all devoted readers

This year has seen unprecedented events happen in my life that I must address before I can continue to publish. So far I see no end in sight. Moving to another set of digs I have to cut back on everything including shutting down this blog.  I may try and publish on the weekends but I can’t make any promises.

Everything may be paid up until early 2020 but I can’t keep dishing out $500-$600 per year with no return. I thank the small donators that helped out.

“BB”

 

 

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Crude Oil 1999-2019 Review

I constantly review the bigger picture, as I see it everything related to commodities are diagonal wave structures. The 1990s was a correction with a triangle in the “B” wave of Intermediate degree ending in 1999.

Then in the middle of a worldwide oil glut crude oil started to soar until peak oil ended in 2008. Most of all wave analysts count 1999-2008 as a set of 5 waves in Primary degree, yet I count 7 waves.  Forcing 5 waves when there are only 7 waves is what I try and avoid.

During the 2008 peak, the Gold/Oil Ratio hit 9:1 when crude oil started to crash. Many smart contrarians knew that oil was going to crash, just because of the ratio was at an extreme.

I called the crash as well except my wave degree levels were off by a long shot.  From 2008 to the 2016 bottom looks like a perfect Primary degree zigzag has completed, which also ended with a potential 4th wave in Cycle degree.

Another zigzag in Primary degree could be one of the options that will end with Cycle degree wave 5. Wave 1 in Intermediate degree may already be completed but in the short term, oil can be fooling us as wave 2 might not be finished just yet.

The drone attack produced a crazy move to $63, a few dollars shy of what I thought it would do, but in its wake oil also produced one “Humungous gap”.

It was about a $4 gap between $56 and $60, so crude oil can crash right back down to $56 with little problem. (or lower)

I have never noticed a gap in oil this large since I started wave counting oil. This is a very bearish signal.

There should be no panic as they say the drone attacks was just 5% of world oil production taken offline. This made the USA the largest exporter of oil for the short term.

The Gold/Oil ratio also compressed to 24.9 from Fridays ratio of 27.13. Oil refineries blow up regularly but they can also rebuild them very fast by working 24/7.

Only time can answer a few more questions, as we have to see how deep oil prices can still fall.  Any oil price fall below $45 will definitely kill this short term wave count.

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Crude Oil Drone Attack Review

It seems pretty popular that events and news releases happen on the weekend when the markets are closed. The recent drone attack in Saudia Arabia is a prime example.

The markets are closed so the oil prices will not react until the start of trading Sunday night. It still gives traders lots of time to think it over if panic is going to hit the oil market.

There is no shortage of oil in the world as every country wants to pump and sell as much as the can. In the USA refineries blow up on a regular basis, but production gets back online fairly quickly.

Oil could make a drive to $60 before another decline sends oil south, but again early next week should tell us more.

Oil is in a crazy complex correction that is far from being finished and if oil ever falls below the December 2018 low of $45 I must use my bullish wave count.

Oil is still in a death cross but that also can change next week if oil makes a bounce.

The Gold/Oil ratio is far away from being expensive (9.1) as today it sits at 27.13, which is barely a point difference than 10 days ago. The ratio is not an issue at this time.

The commercials are net short but those readings are not at extremes as well. There is lots of room for oil to move in both directions.

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Min Dow Index Intraday Update

The DOW is being pushed to the limits of what wave 2 rallies can do so only a clear push to new record highs will kill it. Otherwise, it is primed to fall and start to close 2 of the big caps open below present prices.

Besides being an unlucky Friday 13th, we also have a full moon today which can be a turning signal as well. With 2 open gaps that makes it about 4 bearish signals that I use, which most analysts ignore as they are to busy chasing fundamentals which change as fast as the wind.

Any drop in the DOW will bring out the bearish news and we never know from what country it will come from.

Record high prices don’t reflect that a recession is here already, even though we can see the world economies are slowing down.

It’s a “Sit and Wait” situation at this time, but next week should tell us more.

The Gold/Dow ratio is still very expensive as it was 18.3 today from the ratio of 21:1, we have a long way to go before the DOW becomes cheap again at 7.19 where it only takes 7.19 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the DOW.

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Intraday Silver Crash Update

I have silver as a bear market rally with potential support at $16.80,  but silver would get there before this wave pattern is finished.

Worst gets to worse if silver falls below $13.50, then this so-called bull market will get confirmed that it was just another bear market rally.

Is gold going to stay in a bull market? I find it hard to believe for silver to break to new bear market lows and gold doesn’t.

Even though I need another Minor degree zigzag on a 5th leg only time will tell when that will happen. On the daily chart, silver has left a beautiful spike behind, and spikes are my sell or buy signals regardless of what wave count I may be on.

I trade Forex silver units on my iPhone and use futures charts to set up trades with, so watching silver is important from my perspective.

I also have a small portfolio and a silver related stock that has soared while silver has been crashing which I was expecting because investors will run to penny stocks as a safe haven.

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Gold Friday, 13, 2019 Intraday Crash Update

 

So far gold is still on its way heading south with more to come. The US dollar has also made some bearish gyrations but so far gold has ignored the USD.

Stocks could head south and gold can do the same thing. What gold needs to show us is a clear correction well before $1380 as this has price support of a previous 4th wave. This correction must hold with gold soaring again to new record highs, that will kill my bearish wave count.

There are no daily limits in all commodities so gold crashes it can make dramatic moves that some investors do not understand.  I like that about gold and silver because bearish moves happen faster than bullish moves do.

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Solar Cycle 24 August Update.

This more of a technical look at the solar cycle with each dot, it represents the previous month’s sunspot activities. Last month was pretty dead as we had long stretches where the face of the sun was blank.

This is normal as the same thing happened back in 2008-2009.

The first peak in late 2011 matched the gold peak after which the secondary peak happened in early 2014.  2011 matches the gold and silver mania peak which is not a coincidence.

They do alternate, repelling and attracting prices here on earth.

The sun is what controls climate change, not some invisible CO2 gas that all the experts claim. The world is freaking out as more and more countries scream “Climate Emergency”.

Much of Canada is claiming a climate emergency, but yet they want to let in many climate refugees.  Wow, what a contradiction and when you are faced with a contradiction then at least 1 or more of our premises is wrong!

This is so true with any wave count we can produce as well. In the TV show, Jesse Stone solves a triple murder by going over the premises over and over.

Right now, it may take until 2021 for solar cycle 24 to end, but solar cycle 25 will already be in the mix. Solar cycle 25 should be very bullish for stocks but the next few years should tell us more.

 

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DOW Mini Index Review

I have gone over the entire bull market since the 2009 bottom and I may have missed an extension. Also since the December 2018 bottom, a set of 5 waves developed also containing an expanded pattern after which we had a July peak after which the DOW started another bearish move.

Expanded patterns show in 4th wave corrections frequently, so that also fits better. If our present move is a wave 2, then there should be no more new record highs. Many more gaps show up with this chart so anyone of them can get closed in the next few months or so.

This is all coming down to the wire but all it takes is the wrong kind of news and the DOW will make another leg down.

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Silver Weekly Chart 2011-2019 Review

One reason that not too many wave analysts work on silver as it just does not play well with gold. It is a difficult task alright as the choppy waves overlap dramatically.

When that happens then diagonal wave structures are in force like they are in “All” commodities.  Silver didn’t even get past the Aug 1, 2016 high of $20.76, while gold left silver in the dust!

Last weeks spike peak which I look for are my sell signals, regardless of how they might say silver will go to.  Catching up to silver seems to be the battle cry most of the time, but the same thing happened at the 2011 peak.  I have returned to silver as a 4th wave rally which I have used for some time before.

A new zigzag should form but that impending zigzag should take out all double bottom support. Just by dropping down one degree pushes any “A” wave in Primary degree into the future in the next year or so.

Any drop in the silver price below $13.50 would confirm that silver was just a bear market rally. All silver needs to do is drop a bit more than $6 from today’s highs.

From 1980 to about 1999 silver was in a 19-year bear market, so don’t expect a 10-year bear market to finish a Cycle degree bear market just yet.

 

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Gold Weekly Chart 2011-2019 Bear Market Review.

Well, folks, in the last week I printed out many charts like this and switch back and forth to line type settings.

The gold rally ended Sept, 5 at $1555. Is $1555 going to hold for the high of the year, will gold still soar like many of the talking heads say it will.

At the gold peak, many aggressive gold forecasts were made, just like they have done many times before.

I think gold is fooling us with its bullish pattern while silver showed us it couldn’t care less. By making the 2011 decline into diagonal decline, makes the 2015 bottom only a wave 3 in Intermediate degree.

Readers know I have done this before and a switch works best at the turning of a month.

Gold needs to show us another zigzag decline in Minor degree which could take more than a year and it moves the Primary degree “A” wave into the future as well.

Dropping the gold bear market down by just one degree sends the Primary degree “A” wave back into inventory. Gone by the stroke of a pen.

There is no price support here because I question support for what? Just because gold had a very bullish run does not mean a true bull market is in play or has started!

I’m sure the day will come when gold crashes below $1400 again, but any move now has to show us that a zigzag 5th wave in Minor degree is going to start.

We have had about 8 strong bullish rallies since the 2011 peak and most of them failed and when it wants to gold’s price could drop $50-$100 at a time.

I can make the silver wave count work better as a 4th wave decline, so silver may end up giving us an early clue when the “New” “A” wave in Primary degree appears.

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Silver Intraday Crash Update

As much as I would like to give you a wave count matching the bullish herd, I can’t.  The above silver COT report has the commercials at record high short positions.  They do not support a long term bull market in silver.  Last weeks silver spike on the daily charts was a sell signal, from my perspective.

All weekend I have conducted reviews in silver and gold going right back to the 2011 peak. There are some serious differences between the two but right now I will deal with silver. I have always complained that silver walks to a different drummer and one reason that this is the case is that no “A” wave in Primary degree has started back at the 2015 bottom and a possible 4th wave in Intermediate degree has recently ended.

What I’m looking for is another Minor degree zigzag that at this time I will not mention any support. From the 2011 peak, I can count out diagonal patterns so the ugly pattern since the 2015 bottom, is just continuing. I have used this wave count many times before and will now run it until it no longer works.

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Gold/GDX: The Bearish Picture, 2015-2019 Review

Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI

Mark Hulbert makes a very strong bearish case with his sentiment readings. I pay attention to that, as wave counts come to an end when sentiment is very bullish or bearish.

When the mainstream analysts start forecasting crazy bullish gold forecasts like $3000 gold or higher, then who is left to come in?

Below is the simple chart version of the commercials being net short, while the speculators have a huge long position. The last 5 speculators bars also has a flat top, which shows they are not that enthusiastic to take on more bullish positions.

The speculators are the emotional players and they will be the first to sell gold when this gold bull market turns out to be a dud!

While gold was still in a rally, the commercials added to their bearish positions, but the speculators added to their already massive long side. Both parties can’t be right as they contradict each other.

Last week spikes were starting to form, which are sell signals from my perspective.  I think gold is fooling us, as no other gold-related asset class like GDX could keep up to the metal.

If the Primary degree “B” wave top is in, then investors will suffer serious losses if the stay. Gold has already crashed $50 last week, which could be the start of a very bearish run.

When we look at GDX, we can see that it’s being left in the dust when comparing it to gold. We have resistance going back to the 2013 peaks, with an open gap just barely getting closed off.

Draw another line from the 2016 peak to our present 2019 peak, we can see a massive H&S. In a very bullish market, the right shoulder will just correct, and then break out again, but no such pattern will happen if a bigger bearish move is already in progress.

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Silver Daily Chart Crash Review

Many analysts are talking how silver will outperform gold yet silver still needs to go above $21. Silver is lagging far behind gold just like it has done since the August 2016 peak.

In the last few days, 2 vertical spikes formed which is usually a sell signal. I closed my 9 silver positions a bit after the top @ $19.07  and now have to wait for another good setup.

So far I can’t see any Minute degree wave count that has complete which I don’t like to see, while gold is ready for a 4th wave correction in Minor degree.

The short version is that silver is still marching to a different drummer.

At the intraday scale silver is close to another double bottom but I don’t trust it as on the Forex screen silver has already lost support.

Every bullish correction on the way up could now offer support if the gold bulls are correct. As it sits silver can be in just another zigzag.

The silver decline had mostly 5 wave sequences so looking for a correction to finish, is the best guess scenario right now.

I already switched to a bullish position but will close off Sunday night if silver doesn’t return to a bullish acting pattern.

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SP500 E-Min Index Review: Getting Down To the Wire!

The index only moves during the day with some of the wild moves smooth out a bit more.

The recent bullish price surge is getting down to the wire as there is very little room left before the SP500 breaks out to new record highs.

There is also an open gap which should get closed off, but ultimately this wave count has to decline and take out multiple support price levels around the 2830 price level.

They keep talking about a recession but this chart is still at record highs. Record lows would be better as when that happens we know the recession will be over.  2008 was a good recession year reflected by the charts with massive insider buying.

If, we don’t get a significant correction by the time solar cycle 25 is in full force a new bull market should start.

Upswings in solar cycles are very bullish for stocks which could happen by early 2021.  In the next few months, this SP500 would have a long way to go as it has to clear the bottom of my “A” in Intermediate degree.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is sitting at record highs at 1.96  just off the 2:1 expensive ratio I have recorded.

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Crude Oil: Weekly Chart Update

So far I’m going to stick with Cycle degree wave 4 as completed.

I have to be open to the idea that another big zigzag in Primary degree might happen, so this 5 wave sequence would end at another “A” wave in Primary degree.

Early this morning crude oil spiked and has started to dip again, and may still head to the $50 price range.

The Gold/Oil ratio is 26.8 which is more expensive than the August readings and this ratio should expand a bit more in September.

Any move that would take oil below the $45 price level might force another complete review.

Don’t expect some beautiful impulse move as we are in a diagonal world where wave structures do overlap and can even look like they are going sideways.

Switching from bar type to line type also changes the wave counts as many spikes get smoothed out in the process.

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US Dollar: Still Heading North

This could be the first chart where I show that we could be in a Primary degree run already.  Trying different degree levels is important as the USD could make a swan dive trashing the bottom trend line.

Turning real bearish too early doesn’t work as this choppy trend could just frustrate us to no end. The gold bulls sure would get a kick if the USD suddenly imploded, and the EURO started to soar again.

2008 was a major bottom for the US dollar and I think it’s bullish run is far from over, corrections notwithstanding.

The US dollar has very good solar cycle connections as the 2011 and 2014 lows match the two peaks of solar cycle 24. Even the 2008 USD bottom matches solar cycle 24 so it is next to impossible to say that it was just a lucky coincidental occurrence.

When solar cycle 25 arrives will it send stocks and the US dollar soaring again? All the indicators on the planet will not work if we ignore the power of the sun and its 11-12-year cycles.  Talk of a recession is endless which can happen as one solar cycle ends and the next cycle starts.

From my perspective solar cycle, 25 will become the recession killer just like 2008-2009.

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Silver: Still Flying High Weekly Chart Review

I’m impressed with this vertical move in silver as I haven’t had a chart move like this in quite some time.  At the $20 price level silver is going to run into some resistance and at $21 silver is going to make a breakout.

Usually, when a spike like this happens, it’s followed by a correction or complete end of a trend. I don’t think we are at the end of this bullish move as we would get a little more warning with many more choppy wave structures.

This silver move is already past that of a good zigzag (bear rally) so the 5 wave sequence is still alive an well. I took on long silver units when silver was just above $16 and I will let it ride at this time.

We may start to read very bullish scenarios about silver like they are doing with gold but most of them are “Pie in the sky” forecasts.

I still believe a 4th wave will come but it would be far too early if it tried to start a 4th wave correction now!

 

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