Looking at oil from a weekly chart perspective I have made some changes where the 2016 low is also my Cycle degree 4th wave low!
If we are lucky this wave count may last until the end of the year but be open to being wrong. This would be a diagonal 5 wave sequence but end at an “A” wave in Primary degree, not a wave 1 in Primary degree.
If any of this bullish scenario is true then expect choppy and overlapping waves that will keep the wave analysts scratching their heads.
Some wild spike to the downside could send this wave count into the digital graveyard fairly quick, but I have to run it until it’s eliminated.
The Gold/Oil ratio is about 28:1 which is not that expensive.
In 2018 we saw a golden cross develop so it would be critical to watch if we get a death cross dip!
After a month of sideways movement, the E-Mini is back at the resistance of about 26,400 with a quadruple top. A huge breakout to the upside would kill this wave count off pretty quick, as we also have possible double zigzag.
The short version is that during the month of August, wave 3-4 may just be finishing. We wouldn’t know that until the August price support crumbles and the majority of analysts start to freak out.
At this scale, the moving averages bounce around a lot so they are not that reliable as they criss-cross each other.
The new moon is this Friday and we are on the last days of the month so that combination can always raise a bit of stock market turmoil.
My last Gold/Dow ratio recorded was July, 11 at 19.3 with today recording a ratio of 17. The DOW got cheaper but not by all that much. A ratio of 8:1 is dirt cheap but that will need constant checking when we think we are getting close.
Gold is acting a bit bearish today so a correction could be just around the corner.