For all of August, the DOW E-Mini has been dancing around in both directions. Good Luck trying to fit this into a bullish impulse even though a set of 5 waves seems to be finishing.
Yes the DOW has just created a golden cross, but it sure can head back down and execute a death cross! From what I see I have to remain bearish as 2 H&S patterns have also formed.
A strong bullish move would shred the resistance line to the upside. On the bearish side, we eventually would have to see new records lows.
Give it until the end of the month for a new bearish trend to show itself with a wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree still to complete.
Another leg down in the DOW sure could send gold soaring in another leg up. In a sic way the DOW could see 5 waves down in Minor degree while gold might get 5 waves up in Minor degree.
If we were in an Intermediate degree decline, then I think this sideways pattern would take much longer to play out.
Once the DOW crashes below the August 6th low then we will know for sure that this August rally was just another bear market rally. Yes, the decline started out very choppy but they can also smooth out as the trend matures. 21,600 could bring us support but that number may mean nothing once fear starts spreading far and wide.
Even though I look at the charts every day, my short term wave counts need improvements and that all depends on where we are in the bigger picture.
Crude oil charts go back to the 1850s and the start of Supercycle degree oil. One thing is certain is that crude oil and all commodities as well belong in the diagonal world where zigzags are everywhere and most of the time the waves overlap with each other.
This makes it impossible to count out any high quality 5 wave impulse. There are more Minor degree 5 wave runs in a Cycle degree world and the above chart has two sets of them.
It may be a temporary thing but I reduced the degree level after the 2008 peak. This makes 2016 low the Primary degree “A” wave, matching gold.
If I moved wave 3 in Cycle degree back to the 1980 peak it would be very strange and all the wave counts would no longer make sense. I have switched to Cycle degree wave counting since 2013 and have “No” intention of going back again.
The Gold/Oil cash is about 26.7 which is not cheap enough to produce a massive crude oil bull market but still produce more zigzags along with the bullish gold price.
I show a potential wedge which oil will need to slice through. Oil would have to travel the furthest to the downside with a bearish mood. With the trade war and tanker traffic war turning off their GPS units, oil could float around for years distorting any fundamental reporting.
The USA is now the worlds largest oil and gas a producer which is not bad considering the experts had us running out of oil in early 2008!