At $1550 gold is running into resistance but how much resistance remains to be seen. At the small intraday scale, gold seems to be correcting which means gold still has room to move up, at least in the short term.
Since the 2015 bottom gold has now moved $500 and is about $370 away from breaking a new record high. ($1920)
Silver has also gone vertical so a correction is due in silver as well. I’m looking for a wave 3-4 to develop in Minor degree and no amount of little wave counting will make it come any sooner.
Even the two trend lines are suspect as they can be very subjective. At $1800 gold would see resistance increase and I would like to see that 4th wave come and go!
Looking at oil from a weekly chart perspective I have made some changes where the 2016 low is also my Cycle degree 4th wave low!
If we are lucky this wave count may last until the end of the year but be open to being wrong. This would be a diagonal 5 wave sequence but end at an “A” wave in Primary degree, not a wave 1 in Primary degree.
If any of this bullish scenario is true then expect choppy and overlapping waves that will keep the wave analysts scratching their heads.
Some wild spike to the downside could send this wave count into the digital graveyard fairly quick, but I have to run it until it’s eliminated.
The Gold/Oil ratio is about 28:1 which is not that expensive.
In 2018 we saw a golden cross develop so it would be critical to watch if we get a death cross dip!
After a month of sideways movement, the E-Mini is back at the resistance of about 26,400 with a quadruple top. A huge breakout to the upside would kill this wave count off pretty quick, as we also have possible double zigzag.
The short version is that during the month of August, wave 3-4 may just be finishing. We wouldn’t know that until the August price support crumbles and the majority of analysts start to freak out.
At this scale, the moving averages bounce around a lot so they are not that reliable as they criss-cross each other.
The new moon is this Friday and we are on the last days of the month so that combination can always raise a bit of stock market turmoil.
My last Gold/Dow ratio recorded was July, 11 at 19.3 with today recording a ratio of 17. The DOW got cheaper but not by all that much. A ratio of 8:1 is dirt cheap but that will need constant checking when we think we are getting close.
Gold is acting a bit bearish today so a correction could be just around the corner.
Without a doubt, the Natural Charts charts have some of the wildest moves I have ever seen or tried to count out.
Commercials are net short NG, while the speculators see a very bullish picture. That doesn’t mean NG is going to soar in price, but the winter is coming soon and it could be much colder than normal.
The world is freaking out about climate change which has more to do with the sun and its solar cycles then any CO2 built up in our atmosphere. The war on coal or fossil fuels continues as many electricity generating plants are switching over to NG.
Natural gas may have to break to new record lows before we see a substantial rally.
There is no way of seeing supply numbers as they just flare off any extra NG that they don’t need, besides that, they flare for safety reasons. When the flare rate increases then we know a natural gas glut is already here!
It may take the rest of the year but I’m sure solar cycle 24 is drawing NG prices down.
Many believe that silver is going to outperform gold. Right now gold is leading, with silver still trailing far behind. I don’t see the big deal as silver failed to perform compared to the 1980 peak and the 2011 peak.
When I turn the settings to line type, then that huge 1980 spike turns into a $35 spike. About $13 disappears when switching settings.
Silver is a prime example of what diagonal waves can look like as the 1990 bear market had many overlapping waves followed by a bull market after the 2001 bottom.
More spikes formed during the 2002-2011 bullish phase which was also a “C” wave bull market.
Then in early 2011 silver peaked and then started a 4+ year bearish phase that looks like a 5 wave decline at this time.
That bearish phase ended in late 2015 and silver exploded along with gold. I’m sure more silver upside is still to come even though silver is dragging its feet.
The commercials made bearish moves last week but it seems they can handle much more as this bullish phase progresses.
Somewhere silver will start to extend and since wave 1 is a bit short, this could force wave 3 and wave 5 to extend. I’m not too concerned which one will extend because the bullish phase will end when all the experts start calling for $200-$500 silver again! They have been calling for $200 silver since the 1970s and the silver price has never hit $200!
Nothing that has happened in the “Marijuana Industry” is any real surprise.
GLD is a very popular GOLD related ETF and it tracks the gold futures very well. At this time GLD was close to $144 which is a Fibonacci number. I looked over many other gold-related wave counts and after about 20-30 I was getting bored as they all looked the same.
The $2000 gold price forecast has become popular again followed by a $5000 gold price forecast. I’m sure we will hear more insane gold price forecasts as this bullish phase matures. $10,000 gold price forecasts can be seen in the tabloids if you look hard enough. They have been forecasting a $2000 gold price since the ’70s which has never been achieved.
There is a real good chance that gold and GLD are in a bear market rally while others do not only a few have the same “A” wave bottom as my wave count.
The bullish phase is not over as I believe 5 waves still have to develop and until they do I will remain bullish.
At this time the 5th wave could be the shortest out of the three waves. Any 4th wave could take 2-3 months to correct so that should drive the gold bulls nuts for a little while.
At this time I doubt that the entire run may finish this year as it could carry on until spring 2020.
Last week the DOW hit resistance about 3 times after which the investors started to panic again. I believe this could be a wave 1-2 in Minor degree, but the DOW needs to decline much further to show us that the stock bears are in control.
Friday ended with a sharp spike to the downside but we will see if that spike holds any serious price level.
We also finished a golden cross but it may mean nothing as a death cross could follow just as fast.
GDXJ is an ETF that tracks the Junior gold mining companies and it’s also lagging behind gold as the July 2016 peak has not been exceeded. GDX is just shy of breaking out while gold has soared.
GDXJ is also in a bear market rally which started in early 2016. A couple of trendlines can point us to an early “C” wave price target. I still need wave 3-4 and 5 to play out which can produce insane extensions.
The Gold/Gdxj ratio is sitting at 38.26 which is not that cheap but is still a far cry away from the expensive 10:1 ratio.
The HUI turned out to be a popular gold stock related index while GDX is a good ETF to watch. They are both about the same but GDX is performing a bit better than the HUI.
Gold has already soared well above that 2016 high while the HUI has still been lagging far behind. Many of the gold-stock ETFs have been lagging far behind gold, so I’m sure there is some catching-up still to come.
Analysts have been looking for big break-out moves back in 2011 and they never materialized as well. Silver is in the same boat as the 2011 peak barely exceeded the 1980 peak by just a few dollars.
Don’t get me wrong as I’m bullish until all 5 waves in Minor degree show themselves. The lagging is just an early warning.
The Gold/Hui ratio sits at 6.9 this morning and that number should compress much more before this bullish phase comes to an end.
GDX is an ETF that we can trade so it makes sense not to spend too much of my time wave counting the HUI.
Give this until late this year to see if the next leg appears, but either way, I don’t want to turn bearish too early.
For all of August, the DOW E-Mini has been dancing around in both directions. Good Luck trying to fit this into a bullish impulse even though a set of 5 waves seems to be finishing.
Yes the DOW has just created a golden cross, but it sure can head back down and execute a death cross! From what I see I have to remain bearish as 2 H&S patterns have also formed.
A strong bullish move would shred the resistance line to the upside. On the bearish side, we eventually would have to see new records lows.
Give it until the end of the month for a new bearish trend to show itself with a wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree still to complete.
Another leg down in the DOW sure could send gold soaring in another leg up. In a sic way the DOW could see 5 waves down in Minor degree while gold might get 5 waves up in Minor degree.
If we were in an Intermediate degree decline, then I think this sideways pattern would take much longer to play out.
Once the DOW crashes below the August 6th low then we will know for sure that this August rally was just another bear market rally. Yes, the decline started out very choppy but they can also smooth out as the trend matures. 21,600 could bring us support but that number may mean nothing once fear starts spreading far and wide.
Even though I look at the charts every day, my short term wave counts need improvements and that all depends on where we are in the bigger picture.
Crude oil charts go back to the 1850s and the start of Supercycle degree oil. One thing is certain is that crude oil and all commodities as well belong in the diagonal world where zigzags are everywhere and most of the time the waves overlap with each other.
This makes it impossible to count out any high quality 5 wave impulse. There are more Minor degree 5 wave runs in a Cycle degree world and the above chart has two sets of them.
It may be a temporary thing but I reduced the degree level after the 2008 peak. This makes 2016 low the Primary degree “A” wave, matching gold.
If I moved wave 3 in Cycle degree back to the 1980 peak it would be very strange and all the wave counts would no longer make sense. I have switched to Cycle degree wave counting since 2013 and have “No” intention of going back again.
The Gold/Oil cash is about 26.7 which is not cheap enough to produce a massive crude oil bull market but still produce more zigzags along with the bullish gold price.
I show a potential wedge which oil will need to slice through. Oil would have to travel the furthest to the downside with a bearish mood. With the trade war and tanker traffic war turning off their GPS units, oil could float around for years distorting any fundamental reporting.
The USA is now the worlds largest oil and gas a producer which is not bad considering the experts had us running out of oil in early 2008!
Some investors may be unloading gold inventory which was bound to happen after a vertical move. The question is how deep can gold go? Below $1485 would be nice but I’ll be open to a deeper plunge if need be.
Any correction means another leg up in the gold price is still to come. I’m looking for diagonal connections, as the mainstream media was all charged up for $1600 gold. We sure don’t want to disappoint them if gold crashed to $1400!
Silver is also taking a hit but it has a lot of catching up to do and is lagging behind gold like it has done many times before.
Some analysts are already calling for $2200 gold but they have been doing that since the 1970s.
GDX tracks the HUI fairly well with plenty of volume and liquidity for any trader. I don’t have any positions in GDX but my funds are in 4 Canadian penny stocks that do have exposure to the gold sector.
Trend lines can be very subjective but right now the trend looks like it’s still heading up! I believe we need a 5 wave sequence in Minor degree with wave 3-4-5 still to develop.
Since the 2018 price low, we’ve been in a “C” wave bull market which if we are very lucky, might take us to the $55 price level again.
Last week, with gold making a bit of a jump, the Gold/GDX ratio expanded to 53.46 from 50.98 which means that GDX got a little cheaper last week. This bullish phase could last all year but the trick is to understand the 4th wave when it is unfolding.
It is a good idea to watch the Russell 2000 once in a while as it can be a very good leading indicator. The Russell rolled over just about a year ago and has never followed the three other indices.
Besides a little support at the time of this posting, the next price support may happen at 1250! That would also slice the trend line which now has 2 Intermediate degree bottoms.
Crashing through any intermediate degree bottom would force me to look for a Primary degree position!
I have a bearish outlook and until solar cycle 25 starts to run rampant I will not turn long term bullish.
The Gold/Russell 2000 ratio is still expensive at 1.02 so I would like to see that ratio get much cheaper.
The Nasdaq was rolling over in July already which works like a diagonal starting out. If we’re lucky the patterns will smooth out a bit but that may also be wishful thinking at this point.
With there being a potential Cycle degree correction (Bear Market) the markets have a long way to go before we could expect a return to a real bull market.
This may not happen until solar cycle 25 dominates sunspot activity. Our present little rally looks like another bearish rally and if that is true then the 7400 and 7200 price level will not hold.
The 7000 price level is another potential price target for some more support but eventually, the 7000 price level will not hold as well.
The Gold/Nasdaq ratio got better at 5 but is still a far cry from being the cheapest of 1.18. The Gold/Nasdaq ratio doesn’t have to go that cheap but it sure would help to see the ratio get better than 3:1.
The commercials for the Nasdaq are net short but not by any extreme amount. The speculators have the opposite side of this deal as they are all pile onto the long side. Both parties can’t be right so sooner or later one side is going to panic.
I normally avoid wave counting in single stocks but the story that CGC has lost 1.28 Billion quarterly loss was to good to pass up! There are more losses to come as these growers over paid for “Growing Real Estate”(Greenhouse) by an insane amount! Pot production per square footage is the key and they are paying top dollar to grow pot inside.
What the black market has been doing profitable for years the legal market hasen’t even come close! to matching.
When a stock hits $55 then funds will find them too rich and they start to dump their CGC stock.
The previous bull market correction can be a great target for some support but remember this pot industry was a mania right from the start, and hysteria’s or mania’s never end well.
When markets go wild then it also draws in all the crooks that love to scam investors. I participated in one pot IPO which I sold after a 5 wave run and will stay away from all marijuana related assets.
If CGC crashes back down to $5 CAD again it would not surprise me!
In my last USD posting, I described that the USD dollar could be in a diagonal 4th wave and sure enough, the USD seems to be heading up again. It won’t be a smooth ride for a 5th wave because this is a world filled with diagonal wave structures.
I would love to see the USD breakout to new record highs even by the slimmest of margins but “Time” will have the final word!
Just inverse the chart above and it will look like the Euro which should produce another record low.
Gold and the USD have both been bullish today so we could run into more situations like this in the future.
The commercials are net short by a wide margin which does not seem to slow the USD bullish phase down any, at this time.
Not enough traffic has moved to the December time period so this is still the September contract. This is the 90-minute intraday chart, which could be showing a 4th wave rally for this month.
In the last few days, the DJIA plunged about 1000 points before it started to recover. Markets can move month to month so this bearish phase my turn by the end of September.
I will not repeat the fundamental jargon that 1000 others are doing. Nobody knows “What News” really cause the markets to head up or down and it’s impossible for the same news to happen for us to take advantage of it. Did the bearish news in late 2008 get you in a panic to get out or did all the bearish news tell you to load up?
The VIX sure has exploded but I think the VIX could still go above 40. The arrival of solar cycle 25 is the deciding factor as solar cycle 25 could produce 5 waves up in Primary degree.
Looking at silver with a daily chart it shows we have some way to go before we get close to another Minute degree peak, nevermind getting to another potential wave 3 in Minor degree. Compared to gold which has already blasted past the July 2016 peak, silver has a “Long” way to go just to get to its July 2016 breakout price.
Silver is lagging far behind gold which has happened many times before, like in 2011.
Of course, silver never caught up with gold, as the 2011 silver peak just barely broke above the 1980 metals peak by just a few dollars, while gold traveled about $1040 during the same time period!
There’s always the 5th wave which can produce dramatic extensions and it will seem like silver is catching up gold!
Gold and silver have a long way to go to finish this “C” wave bullish phase so don’t commit the investing sin by getting out too early!
I trade silver Forex units with my iPhone and just added another unit on August the 8th. There is a good chance this bullish phase can last all year as Christmas shopping can dump trillions into Brick&Morter stores.
Last week the commercials added to their silver “Long” positions, which is a good sign. The hedge fund speculators did the exact opposite as they panicked and sold their long positions and increased their short positions. The speculators are the trend chasers yet the mass media constantly tells us what the speculators and not the commercial hedgers are doing.
The US dollar did rally as stocks charged upward but so far the US dollar rally is a bit subdued! The decline also is very close to the previous “B” wave which doubles as a potential diagonal wave 2. Usually, it can even end up lower but never below any potential diagonal wave 2.
The commercials are still stacked to the bearish side by a ratio of 23:1 which can still force the US dollar to the downside. The media quotes the speculators and what they are doing but the hedge fund speculators always chase the markets and eventually, they get trapped and change directions in a panic.
The Euro is inverse to the USD as it’s inside the US dollar basket. It would be next to impossible for the Euro and the US dollar to soar at the same time.
I apologize to my readers as my postings are very sporadic and they will continue that way, until early 2020 or until I can find a new place I can afford.
An explosive move this morning in stocks was a near-vertical lift which never can be maintained for very long. Investors have to decide, keep loading up on stocks at the same time dumping gold. I have labeled this like a diagonal 5 wave sequence but it remains to be seen if another leg down is going to happen.
Gold went south while oil enjoyed a big rally. About all it tells us, is that investors are willing to dump gold stocks at a drop of a hat if they think stocks have seen a major bottom.
The Russell 2000 and the Midcaps do not confirm the SP500/Dow/Nasdaq so I think this is still part of a bearish rally.
The full moon is due on Thursday of this month and last night I could hear the coyotes howling under the power lines. Just kidding folks as moon cycles can trigger any type of a turning as I don’t see them being all that reliable anyway.
There is a gap below at the 2915 price level, so I’m sure that gap will get filled in the near future!
The bottom fell out of the gold price with a near-vertical drop that also left an open gap in its wake. Sudden drops like this happen as there are “No” daily trading limits in commodities.
The only question is how deep gold can still go as downward spikes like this can be a very bullish sign. Stocks/Oil exploded, but the gold and silver price headed south.
There should still be more upside, as the pattern so far, does not suggest a long gold price decline. Besides that, the $1600 price range is a much better resistance level than $1535 is.
The full moon is just a few days away so that can act as a reversal time period. Gold already recovered about $10 so that is also a good sign. I see it as a warning that later on when stocks start a real bull market that gold will decline as stocks supply the real competition for gold-related assets.
The 2011 gold peak is a prime example of what can happen.
I may have to drop this wave count degree level down by one, and I also doubled the “Custom Bars” to 1000. During July I thought I would get a set of 5 waves but now even an extreme diagonal 4th wave is being pushed to the extreme.
Friday the USD dropped like a rock but at the same time we could end up with a huge open gap! The zigzag bullish run could be a bear rally and usually, any Elliott Wave bear market rally gets retraced by 100% or more.
In order for gold to keep soaring the USD has to backslide. Combine that with still horrible commercial hedger positions, we could see the USD twist and turn, up or down!
For now, the trend still seems down as some key support price levels could get trashed.
GDX has been on a wild bullish ride that many gold investors have been hoping for. What is important is the 2015-2016 gold-stock bottom as the majority thinks we are in a huge bull market that still has a long way to run.
I think we are in a “C” wave bull market and it could be a complete set of 5 waves in Minor degree. It’s still a bear market rally from an Elliott Wave perspective and the entire time investors will get convinced to jump onto the gold stock bandwagon!
When wave 3 comes then all these “New Riders” will get thrown off when the 4th wave bearish phase becomes obvious. The 4th wave could also end up being a triangle which dictates the coming end of a this Minor degree run.
The Fibonacci $34, $55 price levels will supply resistance levels with $65 being a possible maximum.
The Gold/GDX ratio sits at 50.1 which should continue to compress as this bullish cycle keeps going. 50.1 is the most expensive ratio this year with 30:1 being the most extreme reading I have recorded.
GDX is in a bullish mood as solar cycle 24 is still crashing and the start of solar cycle 25 can cause all gold and gold stocks to reverse and crash. If this invisible 5 wave sequence comes true, then I think the impending bear market would be another 5 waves down in Intermediate degree.
I have a few penny stocks with exposure to gold and they have acted very bullishly, which also helps to confirm the bigger bullish trend!
Originally the 2015 bottom was wave 3 in Intermediate degree but that started to take far to long, so I looked for a higher degree position.
I have been using the (A) wave bottom for 3-4 months and at this time don’t see any reason to change it.
At this time the present bullish phase is what I call a “C” wave bull market, which still has a long way to go. Diagonal wave structures can develop at any time, and I still need to see some sort of Minor degree wave 3-4-5 structure to play out.
EWI (Elliott Wave International) has the same bottom for December 2015 as I do so they are bullish as well.
Yes, we should get corrections as nothing travels in a straight line for very long. The last thing I want to do is turn bearish on gold too early!
Gold was well above $1500 at one point and I’m sure $1600 is within reach this year. August 15, 2019, will be the next full moon which can trigger surprise reversals.
This is the position for solar cycle 24 to the end of July 2019. So far this has produced about 67% spotless days for 2019.
I would like to see that number register 71% or more. Each dot represents a month, and sunspot activity could bounce at any time as well. We could have another year or so as solar cycle 24 can still flatline until the 2020 elections or inauguration of a new president.
Spaceweather.com does a great job of posting solar cycle 24 sunspot activity and the new solar cycle 25 sunspots when they arrive. The first peak in 2011 sent stocks soaring and at the same time gold and gold-related assets all started to crash.
Of course many will just brush that off as a coincidental event but when you go back in gold chart history gold has been repelled or attracted by sunspot activity.
At this point in time, solar cycle 24 is dying, and gold prices have exploded.
I talk to people about the sun and I encourage them to put Spaceweather.com on their smartphone homepage. Investors will never know how important solar cycles are in driving prices and climate change. Solar cycle 24 drove the stock markets in early 2009 and the same thing is about to happen in the next 1-2 years with solar cycle 25!
In the last year or so we have seen oil crash and in the last day or so another crude oil price drop has made its presence known. There are no daily trading limits in commodities and it is the main reason why oil has made such huge price dips.
The decline is not finished just yet as I expect more downside to come. The Gold/Oil ratio is flashing and today the Gold/Oil ratio is the second cheapest ratio in two years.
The Gold/Oil ratio sits at 29.42 today matched only once in the last two years! This is a fast ratio move and I would like to see this ratio continue to spread in the short term. I trade the Forex oil units and have made some small good short bets, but the Gold/Oil ratio is sending a signal that we may have to reverse all our bearish thoughts as we will end up in a crude oil bear trap sooner or later.
Gold soaring, oil crashing changes the Gold/Oil ratio quickly so if we ignore it we can find ourselves in a crude oil bear trap and won’t have a clue that it is happening.
Oil might have another small degree, 3-4-5 wave count, to play out, but after that, a bullish oil move could surprise us.
Gold investors are jumping on the gold bandwagon as they think it will protect them from the savage stock market gyrations. Short term it will work but long term investors know that gold can reverse with little warning. I think there is more upside as a 5 wave sequence in Minor degree seems to have started.
Many may think that the gold bottom of late 2015 ($1050) is a major bottom but in Primary degree. We are not in a Cycle degree bullish phase so eventually, I will turn very bearish.
I have seen some EWI gold wave counts a few months back and we have the same “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.
This is very rare but they have a huge following reading their newsletters and when EWI turns bearish all of their subscribers will know it.
I’m still very bullish on gold and it may last all year or until stocks have crashed significantly. For now, this gold bullish phase should continue, so enjoy it as all trends eventually come to an end.
Silver has come back from the “Dead” and has been soaring with a great spike being formed right now. I believe there is more silver upside, but the corrections can scare even the most bullish traders. This could be part of a 5 wave Minor degree sequence, which also makes it a “C” wave bull market.
I have about 6 silver long positions which I got in a little late but I have no intention of selling just yet. I find no use in using the outdated Gold/Silver ratio as they are both used as metal currencies.
I don’t see any group of analysts that use silver as a base to calculate all other ratios with.
Silver is also part of the “Energy Metals” group as it is used in solar cell production. Silver might not slow down until we reach wave 3-4 in Minor degree so be prepared for a wild ride.