This Barron’s mining index shows how choppy diagonal wave structures can get. I have to find a much larger historical chart as the 1940’s wave count is not clear enough.
I don’t believe we are anywhere near Supercycle or Grand Supercycle degree with this index but a Cycle degree wave 3 top for 2011 still fits very well.
The wave 4 bottom in 2008 overlapped my wave “1” in Intermediate degree which happens on a regular basis at all degree levels. BGMI does not get updated that much and I added it for a different perspective.
Gold stocks have been heading north and sooner or later BGMI will breakout above the 2016 high point.
Sooner or later gold-stock investors will have to ask the ugly question, “Are gold stocks in just another bear market rally?”. The HUI and GDX can fit into the BGMI wave count so we have to wait and see until all “5” waves in Minor degree have played out.
Silver has always been a bit different from gold as it seems silver is starting to wake up while gold has already cleared the 2016 high point. The choppy decline 2016-2018 looks like a triangle in the “B” wave position.
My personal opinion is that silver will not play the catch-up game as the 2011 peak was not much bigger than the 1980 silver peak was!
At a minimum silver should retrace the August 2016 high of about $20. In the long run that isn’t high enough to fill out a “B” wave top in Primary degree, so extensions will be required.
Silver is starting this impending 5 wave run as a diagonal, so some wild moves will surprise us. Just because silver is going up doesn’t mean it’s in a bull market as bear market rallies can be huge.
Many diagonal patterns turn vertical and we could swear the move is coming to an end, but that has to happen when all the headlines are bullish towards investing in silver. If fear has anything to do with the silver price rise, then that move can’t be maintained, no matter how much we want the trend to continue.
Silver has to keep produce higher highs which started around November 2018, with a “C” wave bullish phase.