Crude Oil Intraday Crash Review

In the last few days, the oil chart has rolled over and the debate begins what the support price is going to be. When they speak of “Support” then those analysts are still in the bull market camp.  Of course, if this is all part of a bear market rally then we might not see support until below $50.  The world glut is coming (2020) and that does not justify the oil price to keep going to the moon.

I tried to knock down my degree but started to run out of degree levels so for now, I will keep it as a 5 wave decline in Minor degree.  We could get an ugly counter-rally “B” wave in this 5th wave, so I’m sure it will supply a bullish surprise when it comes.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 24.31 so this ratio should spread if gold keeps going up and the oil price keeps heading south.

Oil has no daily trading limits which create violent swings, so a crash that may sound insane to the majority of oil players is pretty normal from my perspective.

A large number of bullish traders use protective sell stops which are all piled up below present prices. Many of them will get triggered and next thing you know the oil price is free-falling, like an elevator that broke its cables!

I think there is more to this oil downside than just a mere correction but again the market has to confirm it.

Hits: 15

Quick Canadian Dollar Bullish Update

This daily chart shows that our dollar is in a bullish phase which I’m counting as a bear market rally.  Zigzags and flats end with 5 wave runs and in this case, only wave 1-2 has shown itself.

Since the early 2019 bottom, we also got a higher low which is a sign of a conventional bull market.  Just because some asset class goes up doesn’t mean it’s in a bull market.

This rally sure can fit into a bearish rally and we need to complete a full set of 3-4-5 waves before I turn bearish again.

I’m not going to give you a price forecast but diagonal 4th wave rallies can come back so far that we can swear a bull market has arrived.  A retracement back to the wave 2 top can happen but time must do its thing.

For now, I will keep the decline as a 5th wave decline but I’m already looking at alternate wave counts.

Short term I’m very bullish on our CAD but longer-term could be a different story.

 

Hits: 12