2011 is when gold imploded and when stock indices were ready to crank up again. Much of the DOW run has been choppy but this is what 5th waves do. When I post review chances are good I have changed a wave position or two.
In this case, I extended the 5th wave in Intermediate degree. The end result will be the same as any potential type of a Cycle degree correction can still come.
By the looks of it, the DOW has broken the 27,000 price level and established a new record high. I think the DOW is struggling to maintain upward speed but it can keep us guessing as to “When” a reversal might come.
I cheated at our present top as I left one 5th wave uncapped, but only because I had no more room on the chart. Gold still seems to be in a correction but when stocks decline, and investors start running to a safe-haven asset then that is understandable. Solar Cycle 24 still has the power to disrupt this bullish phase, within the next couple of years.
Once the December 2018 crash had completed RBOB gasoline started to roar, well sort of because it was choppy all the way up. It peaked in April 2019 and then again proceeded to crash. The decline can only fit into a diagonal as the 4th wave has come back, well into my wave 2 top in Minute degree.
Forcing a diagonal wave into an impulse is not an option from my perspective. Violent swings are pretty normal in commodities so if a reversal is due then any price support will not hold. Analysts that will call for price support are still thinking “Bull Market” not bear market rally.
Gasoline has been in a bear market since the 2008 peak which most investors know little about. Elliott wave positions are emotional reminders so we can never forget.
I stretched this intraday chart so we can see back to the last major peak. It’s pretty hard to accept that a bullish run like this can be just a bear market rally, but for diagonal waves, this is still pretty normal.
This oil 4th wave I may have just barely kissed my wave 1 in Minor degree, which is also very normal for diagonal waves.
At $61 oil has started a small correction and the depth of any impending oil decline could trash the $56 price level.
Just as fast as oil has roared up it can die screaming from a bear attack. Futures are always leveraged and have no daily trading limits, which produce very violent moves.
The oil units in a Forex account are just as violent which I try to trade in when I can. Four oil units take a little less than $20 to own and there are no contracts to contend with.
When I see a near vertical move like oil has just made, then either we get a strong correction or oil plunges with no support!
I will never post long drawn out fundamentals as thousands of others are doing just that already. A few years from now nobody will remember or know why oil has crashed.