Gold Intraday Gyrations Review.

This is the August Gold contract as the cash chart has too many erroneous spikes at this time.  Prices will be a bit different as this gold market is still advancing. I don’t want to see new record lows in gold but a deep plunge can also happen before gold starts to crank up again.

Commercials are close to having record net short positions but it’s the speculators that can panic sell at the drop of a dime. This Fridays COT report may tell us more.  There is a good chance that the “C” wave bull market is alive but we need more evidence to support it with the development of wave 3-4-5 in Minor degree.  Once gold soars to about $1500 + then I’m sure the gold bulls will be jumping up and down with joy.  When they all agree that gold is bullish then gold can crash and wipe the smiles off anyone that buys when prices go vertical.

In the long run, I’m working gold as a big bear market rally so very choppy waves in a bull market are very normal.

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July 31, 2019 SP500 Intraday Record High Review

The SP500 had a peak on the 29th before it started to back off and start yet another decline or correction. I see them as diagonal waves with the last (c) wave looking like a small ending diagonal.  The SP500 definitely would have to fall much deeper if a bigger bear market is coming.

Back in early July we still have a small open gap and the very least, that gap should get filled. Commercial traders positions do not support a super bearish picture at least not just yet.

After a small break, search engine attacks have started up again, which slows down the entire blog. The majority of search engines attacks came from Hong Kong and China and “they” have now switched to attacking this site from Singapore. In the long run, no web site can stand up to these kinds of attacks and I will only mention it once in this post so legitimate readers are informed.

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Quick Nasdaq Intraday Review

July 16, looks like the last record high and since then the Nasdaq has made some wild moves that could be the start of a new trend.  Lower highs are not yet visible or long enough but all it takes is one more new record low which can get investors into a mini panic.

Antitrust investigations can get investors nervous as the stories are out that the SEC has officially started investigations of the “FANG” stocks.

Some analysts are very bullish on stocks as we hear stories about a melt-up is coming. Any potential melt-up is pretty hard to swallow at this time as it would start at world record highs. A melt-up from this point is next to impossible as the Gold/Nasdaq ratio is already super expensive at 5.6.

Commercials are net short but yet not quite extreme enough.

We are getting closer and closer to the fall and the fall time period can produce some ugly melt-downs.

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GDX Bullish Phase Update

The decline ended on September 2018 and GDX has been in a bullish phase since then. Higher lows on the charts are patterns of a bullish phase,  with this wave 1 containing diagonal waves.  Pretty trend lines will rarely work even if we are expecting a full set of 5 waves in Minor degree.  Also, you can’t trust any angle that much and in this case the angle change dramatically as we started up wave 3 in Minor degree.

Even chart gaps have opened up below present prices but they can stay open for the entire bullish phase. Besides that, the big open gap at the $34 price level is a much more powerful draw.

With the fast move up in GDX it also changes the Gold/Gdx ratio which sits at 50.1 today. GDX is now more expensive than it has in the last 2 years. Any true bullish phase still to come, will push that ratio much further as 30:1 is my most expensive ratio to beat!

Jumping on a bullish bandwagon after it has already gone vertical or near-vertical only works if you have the bigger direction right. We can run into all sorts of wild corrective moves yet, but after each correction gold-stock, ETFs should push higher.

I can’t tell you when this GDX bullish phase will come to an end as extensions can push GDX beyond logic. Anywhere between $45 and $55 can be my price target after the impending 5 waves up have completed.

Once all the analysts turn bullish on gold stocks we know there is nobody left to jump on the bandwagon.

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SP500 E-Mini Intraday Update

At this time my last record high was July 15, 2019, at the 3026 price level. What followed is a very choppy decline that can fool anyone into thinking that stocks are just in a correction.

Analysts that are looking for any price support target are still on the bullish side. Well, bear markets start out exactly like that but they also can smooth out as any bearish phase keeps on growing.

Any bear market has a starting point far removed from the consensus vote of a 20% decline. I think a cycle degree bear market will produce a far bigger downside move and investors could end up running to the hills looking for gold and silver.

This could take until next week before a new leg down can happen and once investors show “Red” they could run to a safe haven in the “Yellow” metal.  We can’t forget silver as it’s still acting very bullish even after a near vertical move.

Lower highs are the signs of a bearish decline and until the decline can be easily seen this market could soar to another record high!  The odds of a new record high decrease every day and can establish the last high of the year.

2020 elections will be a big part of it as parties crank up the rhetoric.

The president that wins in 2020 will have the sun at his back which is about as bullish of a scenario that I can see.

I am very bearish on the 4-5 main indices that cover but very bullish on gold&silver.

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HUI Bull Market Update

The HUI has pushed a bit higher but corrections can slow down any bullish phase. The important wave position happened in late 2015 and very little matters until the counter-rally to the “A” wave in Primary degree, is fulfilled.  It took a while but in 2018 the HUI bottomed and looked back only once so far. More big corrections should happen once this anticipated 5 wave run is finished, which should be a wave 4.

Sure, many were bullish for the last 3 years and they will remain bullish even if the HUI hit 500 again. We are not in some super bull market that will send the HUI index to the moon, but more like a huge bear market rally.  Very few analysts understand how big bear market rallies can be and it’s not the lame conventional move of 20% from the last bottom.

Would a HUI move from 211 to 500 be a true bull market or just a big bear market rally? We do have the conventional description of higher lows which is the sign of a bullish phase but any large degree Elliott Wave bear market rally will do the exact same thing.

There is nothing wrong with being long in an Elliott Wave bear market rally as they can produce massive “C” wave bullish phases, but also when the 5th wave is being played-out the decision to stay or get out will have to be made.

GDX will behave much like the HUI and the HUI is starting to get expensive to gold again. This morning the Gold/Hui ratio was 6.75 which is the most expensive calculation I have recorded since April 1, 2018.

I expect this ratio to become more extreme but not without any corrections.

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Dow E-Mini 2015-2019 Review

At this time the DOW has topped July 16 at the 27,396 price level. Even though many are looking for a major top, this market does a good job of aggravating the stock bears as it tries to keep pushing higher.  We need more evidence that a top is in and by that, I mean another run to the downside would help with that.

There is a little line down at the 14,000 price level but don’t take that as some magical support for another huge bull market as 14,000 is just the minimum I would like to see the DOW hit for a Cycle degree low.

It could take until spring of 2021 as the elections could change the political landscape dramatically. Some may call this the election cycle and politicians do have an impact on the markets. We are in a world where a single “Tweet” could take down a country and false news dominates.

Millions of investors that have pushed the DOW vertically all have smart connections or advisors and so far the majority see no problem in the trade war, oil war, hyped-up climate change, and a host of other fears.

In short, stock investors don’t give a shit about fundamentals as long as the market keeps going up! Oh but wait, when the markets start to decline, then all the bearish news will matter and it will become front-page news again.

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Bitcoin Wild Ride Update

In the last month or so Bitcoin has produced what looks like an expanded top which is very bullish.

Even the 5 wave decline came in perfectly for now.  The thing is that this top can also be diagonal and if that is the case then a new downside price will happen. Of course, the bullish case would send Bitcoin prices to new record highs.

I’m not a fan of anything crypto as there are far too many Bitcoin bank robberies, hack jobs, crypto exchange attacks, and many other black-market shenanigans.

I lost count all the different ways that they can make your bitcoins disappear.

Even stupid crooks are getting in on the act as they plan a Bitcoin heist.

https://www.coindesk.com/uk-thieves-burgle-bitcoin-center-find-zilch

https://www.coindesk.com/ex-ceo-of-crypto-exchange-wex-arrested-in-italy

There is no end to the number of crypto coin robberies so this does not make it a high confidence investment or something we can use every day!

Even the cannabis industry attracts the crooks so it’s not just a crypto problem.

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Crude Oil Intraday Rally Update

Last week activity in the tanker wars has heated up as drone attacks and crude oil carriers get seized. All the fundamentals would suggest that the oil price is going to soar, yet crude oil crashed late Friday even after the seizure of the second oil tanker.

Attacking shipping just reduces the amount of oil available but it also reduces world trade with an impending recession.

At this time oil could still soar to $56.80 as another zigzag is playing out but a short “C” wave is also a possibility.  When I can count 7 waves then a diagonal wave is a high probability but it also complicates any wave count.

I have a Minor degree top but that may be too high of a degree at this time. I use the intraday oil chart to help set-up my Forex Oil Unit trades and have switched between long and short bets for the past week.

I like to bet short when I can because there are no daily trading limits so short bets can travel very fast. I’m constantly reviewing the daily and weekly charts looking for a better fit but at this time I have too many alternative counts to contend with.

We have to see what the rest of July will bring as I still favor the bearish trend.

The Gold/Oil ratio is a bit better but still nothing to get excited about. 25.5 is today’s reading and any numbers that get close to 30 would sure get it close to where crude oil would be cheap again.

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Mini SP500 Gyrations Update

Will the SP500 create a new record high for 2019? Many are betting on it but a new record low will certainly put a lot of doubt and fear into the mix.  If the markets are on the bearish side already then there is no way the trend line will hold.

Sooner or later the record high for the Mini SP500  will be in, if it hasn’t already done so, July 15th at the 3023 price level.

A new record high could come but at this time its a flip of the coin when a substantial bearish move starts to take place.

In the end, it will boil down to the US elections and who gets into power.  Election campaigning is in full swing and if President Trump is set to lose then the markets can turn into a massive “Sell-Off”.

Inauguration in January 2021 is when the new president and his crew take control and after that, the markets could soar again.

This all coincides very well with the solar cycles as the new president in 2021 will have solar Cycle 25 at his back! Until then solar cycle 24 and solar cycle 25 will mix with solar cycle 24 eventually disappearing never to be seen again.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is about as expensive as I have seen it at 2.1. It takes 2.1 gold ounces to buy one unit of the SP500 and we need that number to compress in the months and years ahead. Record cheap is when it only takes .75 of a Troy gold ounce to buy a unit of the SP500.

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Gold Weekly Chart Bullish Review

My focus is always to link all Cycle degree connections first which I work with 3-degree levels below and 3-degree levels above Cycle degree.

I believe the 2011 peak is a Cycle degree peak and what followed was a bear market decline, ending in 2015 with 3-degree levels. I had 2015 low as a wave 3 bottom but It took far too long to play out, so 2015 becomes the “A” wave bottom in Primary degree.

Higher lows are clearly visible with the “B” wave in Intermediate degree (Red), stopping the gold crash in its tracks, August 2018. ($1160) I bet not too many people remember any fundamental logic about why gold started to soar.

With any wave position its always a reminder so we can never forget where the wave count started from.

I believe a “C” wave bull market is in progress and we still need waves 3-4 and 5 to show themselves in Minor degree.

I will not post every single little wave count as they become irrelevant due to the fact that it’s impossible to find our mistakes. If we just use 3-degree levels and count out 50 positions, then you have a minimum of 150 wave positions that could all be wrong!

In the long run, I see this as a bear market rally and there should be more upside to come.

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BGMI Gold Stock Index 1980-2019 Review

This Barron’s mining index shows how choppy diagonal wave structures can get.  I have to find a much larger historical chart as the 1940’s wave count is not clear enough.

I don’t believe we are anywhere near Supercycle or Grand Supercycle degree with this index but a Cycle degree wave 3 top for 2011 still fits very well.

The wave 4 bottom in 2008 overlapped my wave “1” in Intermediate degree which happens on a regular basis at all degree levels. BGMI does not get updated that much and I added it for a different perspective.

Gold stocks have been heading north and sooner or later BGMI will breakout above the 2016 high point.

Sooner or later gold-stock investors will have to ask the ugly question, “Are gold stocks in just another bear market rally?”. The HUI and GDX can fit into the BGMI wave count so we have to wait and see until all “5” waves in Minor degree have played out.

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Here is An Interesting Wave Count On Gold From Elliott Wave International.

https://elliottwave.com/Metals/The-Pattern-That-Anticipated-4-1-2-Years-of-the-Trend-and-the-Turns-in-Gold

 

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Silver Weekly Chart Bullish Review

Silver has always been a bit different from gold as it seems silver is starting to wake up while gold has already cleared the 2016 high point.  The choppy decline 2016-2018 looks like a triangle in the “B” wave position.

My personal opinion is that silver will not play the catch-up game as the 2011 peak was not much bigger than the 1980 silver peak was!

At a minimum silver should retrace the August 2016 high of about $20.  In the long run that isn’t high enough to fill out a “B” wave top in Primary degree, so extensions will be required.

Silver is starting this impending 5 wave run as a diagonal, so some wild moves will surprise us. Just because silver is going up doesn’t mean it’s in a bull market as bear market rallies can be huge.

Many diagonal patterns turn vertical and we could swear the move is coming to an end, but that has to happen when all the headlines are bullish towards investing in silver.  If fear has anything to do with the silver price rise, then that move can’t be maintained, no matter how much we want the trend to continue.

Silver has to keep produce higher highs which started around November 2018, with a “C” wave bullish phase.

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Review

In the last few days, the oil chart has rolled over and the debate begins what the support price is going to be. When they speak of “Support” then those analysts are still in the bull market camp.  Of course, if this is all part of a bear market rally then we might not see support until below $50.  The world glut is coming (2020) and that does not justify the oil price to keep going to the moon.

I tried to knock down my degree but started to run out of degree levels so for now, I will keep it as a 5 wave decline in Minor degree.  We could get an ugly counter-rally “B” wave in this 5th wave, so I’m sure it will supply a bullish surprise when it comes.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 24.31 so this ratio should spread if gold keeps going up and the oil price keeps heading south.

Oil has no daily trading limits which create violent swings, so a crash that may sound insane to the majority of oil players is pretty normal from my perspective.

A large number of bullish traders use protective sell stops which are all piled up below present prices. Many of them will get triggered and next thing you know the oil price is free-falling, like an elevator that broke its cables!

I think there is more to this oil downside than just a mere correction but again the market has to confirm it.

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Quick Canadian Dollar Bullish Update

This daily chart shows that our dollar is in a bullish phase which I’m counting as a bear market rally.  Zigzags and flats end with 5 wave runs and in this case, only wave 1-2 has shown itself.

Since the early 2019 bottom, we also got a higher low which is a sign of a conventional bull market.  Just because some asset class goes up doesn’t mean it’s in a bull market.

This rally sure can fit into a bearish rally and we need to complete a full set of 3-4-5 waves before I turn bearish again.

I’m not going to give you a price forecast but diagonal 4th wave rallies can come back so far that we can swear a bull market has arrived.  A retracement back to the wave 2 top can happen but time must do its thing.

For now, I will keep the decline as a 5th wave decline but I’m already looking at alternate wave counts.

Short term I’m very bullish on our CAD but longer-term could be a different story.

 

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Nasdaq 100 E-Mini: 2000-2019 Wedge Review

Without a doubt, the Nasdaq marches to a different drummer as the 2007 peak never reached new record highs as most other indices did during that rally. For now, the pattern from the 2000 peak to the 2009 bottom can work as a zigzag but it would have to be a “Running Zigzag”  or what the book calls “Truncated”.

The 2009 bottom is still my Primary degree bottom followed by a blistering bull market. Drawing the trend line across the two tops and one trend line up from the 2009 bottom, what do we end up with?

We have the mother of all “Rising Wedges” starting to squeeze the two trends into the cone or “Apex” of the wedge. What do you think will happen when the stock bulls keep getting squeezed into a corner? I will include the link from Investopedia that has a good explanation regarding “Rising Wedges”. 

All investors are distracted with the fundamentals while the “Big Wedge” is giving us a very bearish warning.

I’m looking for a Cycle degree correction but the Nasdaq has no short term support that I can see at this time. Above all the impending bearish phase should be obvious but the crowd may not know until they see it in hindsight. A lot of good that does us unless we take “Hindsight” and always turn it into “Foresight”. The simple answer is that if we ignore the financial past we are doomed to repeat it. All sources of better fitting wave counts are found in “Hindsight” not by flipping our present wave counts thousands of times.

We still have time before solar cycle 24 ends so hang onto your hat, as the winds can change direction and start blowing in from the North West!

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XGD 2011-2019 Review

The 2011 peak in XGD is my Cycle degree top which ended not with a five-wave count but a “C” wave in Primary degree.  That 2011 peak also matched the first peak in solar cycle 24 which is not some coincidental event as 1980 was the peak in solar cycle 21.

In late 2015 XGD started to bunch up and then exploded in a near vertical move after which XGD imploded again but has now had another bottom in 2018.

A couple of trend lines will give us an early possible target if this 5 wave run has any legs to it at all.

Either way, it’s impossible to pinpoint any exact top as we could get another huge double top pushing this wave count to the limit.

The question that every bullish investor eventually has to answer is if gold stocks are in a real bull market, and not just another bear market rally?

My “A” wave bottom in Primary degree gives readers a clue

I don’t have a good Gold/Xgd ratio started but I will try and do some more back checking at major turning points to get a few more max and minimum readings. We are at a Gold/Xgd ratio of 100:1 and we want to see that ratio compress as this bullish phase of the market progresses.

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GDX Bullish Phase Review

I”m sure all the GDX bulls are happy now that GDX is soaring again. This could be the start of a 5 wave sequence, with wave 1 in Minor degree already completed. This time I drew in some trend lines and if this 5 wave sequence is true then GDX should breakout to new highs.

Diagonal wave structures dominate so I have to look for connecting zigzags which isn’t always that easy to spot at times.

This bullish phase started in late 2015 and has now been running close to 3 years and 7 months. The fast bullish phase in 2016 is a typical “A” wave and the angle is the same as our present start of wave 3.

GDX is lagging behind gold as gold has already gone well above 2016 highs and GDX might still take a month before any breakout becomes more obvious.

This is also when any Gold/Gdx ratio starts to matter again as GDX rises the Gold/Gdx ratio starts to compress with our present ratio is sitting at 53.9. The expensive ratio to beat is 30:1 so we still have a long way to go before the ratio starts to set off alarms. Missing a bullish phase with GDX is not what I like to see happen but once this reaches its 5th wave high a new shorting position may present itself.

The $55 price level would present a nice target and by then investors will have to know if the entire rally is just another bear market rally.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, my “A” wave bottom in Primary degree is telling you what our present bullish phase is.

Just because some asset class goes up does not mean a bull market is in effect. There are many other gold-related ETF stocks out and there is no way I can maintain all their wave counts but I will start posting GDX more frequently.  As of this posting, there are 45 different stock holdings inside the GDX basket so your betting market direction and don’t have to be a stock picker.

I may also look at XGD the CAD version as I want to avoid switching into US funds if I can.

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SP500 E-Mini Weekly Chart Review

I moved my wave 3 extension back down so now it’s the 5th wave I’m extending.  Since the 2007 peak, the markets are in the process of finishing wave 3 positions each declining by one degree. 2007 was a Primary degree, 2015 is an Intermediate degree, 2018 being a wave 3 peak in Minor degree.

As I run out of degrees then Cycle degree wave 3 should be next to complete. The peaks will become one degree larger degree wise. SC degree wave 3 will peak in our future peak and not in our present, yet the majority of wave analysts are still trying to force GSC degree wave 3 onto the 2000 peak!  Sorry folks, markets do not have multigenerational 5th wave extensions as they are technical the weakest.

This markets can jerk around frustrating us to no end, but another correction is due that can send investors running to the hills once again.

 

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Brent Crude Daily Chart Review

Brent crude crashed late last year and until it soars far past the October 2018 high, Brent crude is still in a bear market. Any rally can get all the investors excited again, but I turn bearish when markets become saturated with bullish news!

I’m sure investors are swamped with fundamental news but history shows that markets do the exact opposite. Remember “Peak Oil”?  Oil was forecast to go to $200-$300 after which oil crashed to $34.  The experts were spewing fundamental bullish rhetoric, yet they were caught in a bull trap as the oil price imploded.

Now a storm is causing disruptions but that is nothing new as it happens every year. When something like oil refuses to go higher under bullish news, then any bullish run can crash into a brick wall and reverse.

I have painted a wedge and it looks like Brent may hit the top trend line but it can also do the opposite and hit the bottom trend line first!  Oil can crash much faster than it can go up as there are “No” daily trading limits in commodities. Fear can drive markets much faster than what “Greed” will ever do.

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DOW Futures E-Mini 2011-2019 Review

2011 is when gold imploded and when stock indices were ready to crank up again. Much of the DOW run has been choppy but this is what 5th waves do. When I post review chances are good I have changed a wave position or two.

In this case, I extended the 5th wave in Intermediate degree.  The end result will be the same as any potential type of a Cycle degree correction can still come.

By the looks of it, the DOW has broken the 27,000 price level and established a new record high. I think the DOW is struggling to maintain upward speed but it can keep us guessing as to “When” a reversal might come.

I cheated at our present top as I left one 5th wave uncapped, but only because I had no more room on the chart. Gold still seems to be in a correction but when stocks decline, and investors start running to a safe-haven asset then that is understandable. Solar Cycle 24 still has the power to disrupt this bullish phase, within the next couple of years.

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RBOB Gasoline Futures Review

Once the December 2018 crash had completed RBOB gasoline started to roar, well sort of because it was choppy all the way up.  It peaked in April 2019 and then again proceeded to crash. The decline can only fit into a diagonal as the 4th wave has come back, well into my wave 2 top in Minute degree.

Forcing a diagonal wave into an impulse is not an option from my perspective.  Violent swings are pretty normal in commodities so if a reversal is due then any price support will not hold.  Analysts that will call for price support are still thinking “Bull Market” not bear market rally.

Gasoline has been in a bear market since the 2008 peak which most investors know little about.  Elliott wave positions are emotional reminders so we can never forget.

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Crude Oil Another Potential Top!

I stretched this intraday chart so we can see back to the last major peak. It’s pretty hard to accept that a bullish run like this can be just a bear market rally, but for diagonal waves, this is still pretty normal.

This oil 4th wave I may have just barely kissed my wave 1 in Minor degree, which is also very normal for diagonal waves.

At $61 oil has started a small correction and the depth of any impending oil decline could trash the $56 price level.

Just as fast as oil has roared up it can die screaming from a bear attack.  Futures are always leveraged and have no daily trading limits, which produce very violent moves.

The oil units in a Forex account are just as violent which I try to trade in when I can. Four oil units take a little less than $20 to own and there are no contracts to contend with.

When I see a near vertical move like oil has just made, then either we get a strong correction or oil plunges with no support!

I will never post long drawn out fundamentals as thousands of others are doing just that already.  A few years from now nobody will remember or know why oil  has crashed.

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Gold Intraday Bullish Update

Once I saw gold maintain a corrective type of a move I knew that any bearish scenario would have to be put into the deep freeze for now.

There are three spikes that show but you can ignore them as they don’t show up in Line type settings.

Many contrarians have been calling for a higher gold price and I’m sure the gold wave counters have cranked up their bullish wave counts as well.

The above wave count is about as bullish as I can show you, as this may be part of another zigzag bull run.  This wave count can also be a wave 3-4,  but I like to work with only one option at a time.

Yes, the commercials are net short and it will get worse if the gold price keeps rising.

Regardless what your long term gold price forecast is the entire wave counting community has to decide if this 3.5-year bullish phase is just a big bear market rally?

In the near term and if gold has the legs, then $1600 could be the next price target.

What nobody talks about is that the price of gold is soaring while solar cycle 24 is still crashing!  This is not a good long term picture as the gold price could be repealed down, by the start of solar cycle 25.

It’s still a year or so before solar cycle 25 starts, even though the first official sunspot of solar cycle 25 has already arrived.

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Crude Oil New Intraday High!

Crude oil has now charged higher since my last update and there may be more upside left to go.  Even though oil has topped $60 it would have to go above $66 to help confirm my “B” wave bottom in Minor degree.

Today the Gold oil ratio sits at 23.5  which is a bit more expensive. This ratio should keep spreading but If oil stops before $66 then a potential 4 wave rally would be still alive.

Gold is still in a bullish phase as its pushing higher as well. If $1800 is stiff resistance then $1800/23.5 would give us a $76.59 oil price.  I have a new set of 5 waves to contend with and they are diagonal wave structures so wild corrective moves can surprise us at any time.

Pipeline bottlenecks and refineries blowing up all seem to create the fundamental fear that the news just loves to hype.

The recent earthquake in Calfornia doesn’t help anybody to calm down but it didn’t take them too long to blame the earthquakes on climate change!

 

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GLD Elliott Wave Count Review

I created this GLD chart late last night but is still good this morning. GLD follows the gold cash futures very well.  One GLD bear market came to an end in late 2015 so that bottom wave count is important.  Since the 2015 bottom, GLD has seen higher lows and has now charged to new 5 year highs.

In reality, the bullish phase has been going for 3 1/2 years already and against all odds is now pushing higher.

I moved my “A” wave back to the 2016 peak as a running flat plunged into the 2018 bottom.

Yes GLD is in a bit of correction but a 5 wave bull run has more room to move up as a wave 3-4 in Minor degree is still missing.

I refuse to post multiple alternate counts on one chart because sometimes we can have 5 alternate wave counts going at the same time.

The trick is to eliminate bad wave counts as soon as we think we’ve found them.  There are always 3 simple choices of corrective waves and the choice all investors have to make is if GLD is in another big bear market rally.

There is open space ( little resistance) to the $150 price level but after that, the $170 price would provide stiff resistance.

Bear market rallies can be huge like crude oil has demonstrated. There are no daily trading limits in gold, so moves in both directions can swing dramatically.

 

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Solar Cycle 24 June 2019 Update With A Solar Cycle 25 Sunspot!

This is the latest June update which had 34 days with no sunspot activity. The interesting thing today was the new sunspot below.

Spaceweather.com

AR2744 shows the polarity as (+/-) which they say has had  5-6 sunspots of solar cycle 25 already but they were weak and scattered.

Sunspots belonging to solar cycle 24 will still come and they will have their polarity reversed (-/+)  Lots of mixing will occur as this can still drag on for a year or so.

Don’t get excited that one single sunspot for solar cycle 25 has arrived, as we need many more.

This sunspot is on the southern part of the sun and the important thing to remember or know about is how the polarity of the sunspot is lined up. Solar Cycle 25  lines up (+/-) while solar cycle 24 is still (-/+). At least in the southern part of the sun.

The northern part of the sun at about 30-degree latitude may also produce new solar cycle 25 sunspots and we have to check if the northern sunspots reverse their polarity again.

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Gold Resistance at $1800?

I changed my wave positions and basically, I’m now looking for a 3-3-5 wave count and if the (A) bottom is real,  then another leg up would certainly happen.

I will only run one wave count in a chart with no other alternates as otherwise, it’s impossible to find our mistakes. Majority of my wave counts are drawn on a printout first, so you don’t want to carry the same mistake to a new chart!

We may still get some corrective action but if this bullish phase is not finished then the gold bulls will shred the early gold bears again.

The big question is if this is just part of a bear rally or the start of a new true bull market!? A “C” wave bullish phase is what we could be looking at and it may last out the summer.

Wide open spaces to $1600 but then $1800 is going to give gold some very stiff resistance.

 

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Global Greening With CO2!

Global greening is happening faster than climate change, and it’s a good thing

CO2 is plant food and these satellite images confirm it!

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