The E-Mini Dow hit a major peak last Friday and has now started a bearish move. The DJIA peaked about 26,922 just short of the 27,000 that many analysts were calling for.
The problem is that they never can tell how deep any correction will go until its too late.
For the rest of this month, we should know if a big top is in but I start a count-down anyways. If the big party is over then the correction that is coming will be much bigger than most are expecting. If we are at a Cycle degree peak then any bear market will just be a correction, but it will be a Cycle degree correction.
I could be early again but gold has also turned today. Most of the month of June gold and the E-Mini moved up together, so I have to question the stability or the life span of our present gold run as well.
To automatically assume that gold stocks will soar if the markets go for a mini-crash is wrong. When markets turn bearish then investors can sell anything and everything just to save their asses (assets) from a complete loss, throwing out gold stock ETFs as well. Instead, many analysts are calling for a FOMO inspired melt-up in stocks!
The solar cycle 24 bottom is ahead of us, close to the late 2020 time period and until solar cycle 25 starts, stocks can still act very bearish.
I’m at the 5 min scale which is about as small as I can go. This is starting to look like an inverted zigzag which could be a wave 1-2. In other words, gold can’t blast to new record highs. At this scale, it will not take long because the action is much faster so it should only take a few days for this to produce a newer low.
I posted a group of futures contracts that took gold to December 2024, producing a $123 spread higher than the cash price. This is a huge spread and I checked again today and the spread has already compressed to $104. This spread should keep compressing once any decline in the gold price gets serious.
The experts say that as long as gold stays above $1400 it remains bullish but below that gold will be bearish. Good luck with that!
With cash oil and the December 2021 contract, oil is about $4-$5 lower than the cash price. This is very bearish for oil.
With gold, I will check the spread more often as I would expect it to keep compressing.
Our Canadian dollar is also in the US dollar basket and always has been a good indicator to watch. I moved the wave 3 over to the 2011 peak which also matches the first peak of solar cycle 24. They can spew out all sorts of fundamental news to explain any move on the charts, but ask them about the fundamentals in 2000 chances are good they have no clue or can’t remember.
Back in 2000, it was the peak of solar cycle 23 and now we are facing a potential bottom with the ending of solar cycle 24. It could take the start of solar cycle 25 before the CAD turns bullish again. No matter how much we ignore the sun, we are under its magic spell! Solar cycles have a huge impact on business cycles and commodity prices and they are constantly changing our climate as well.
In the last few years, the Canadian dollar has formed an obvious inverted zigzag which is a bear market rally. The present 5th wave decline contains diagonal waves which are pretty common in 5th wave positions.
Our oil industry has been destroyed by the people that want to bring down the entire fossil fuel industry. 80% of all our food is delivered with fossil fuels and if that support was dramatically removed you would see massive starvation in a short period of time and our forests would get decimated just to keep us warm. We need electricity just to keep the internet running mining Bitcoins, never mind trying to get 5G up and running.