Euro Weekly Chart Review

The Euro is inside the US dollar basket. The grinding bear market that the Euro has been in since the 2008 top are diagonal waves.  The Euro is just about a perfect inverse pattern to what the USD is so if your expecting gold to make a huge rally then you must expect the Euro to soar as well.

The Euro is in a rally right now but it is also near creating another death cross.  The 2018 peak is a potential 4th wave peak or bear market rally so if that is a true position then the entire 2016-2018 rally will still get retraced.

This could take until the solar cycle ends and solar cycle 25 starts as solar cycles have a huge impact on business cycles and prices of commodities. The short version is that solar cycle 25 could be very bullish for the Euro, but is still 1-2 years away.

The commercial hedgers are net long but not by much, while the speculators have a strong short position.

The Primary degree wave 2 top in 2011 matched the first peak in solar cycle 24 which the disbelievers just think is coincidental.  There is no question in my mind that the solar cycles have on earthlings as the 2009 bull market has demonstrated.

Short term the Euro could still be bullish but in time it should resume its bearish phase.

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Crude Oil Intraday Correction?

During the night crude oil started a reversal and the only question is, is it a simple bull market correction or will the entire move in June be retraced?   Only time will tell but the rally does look like a zigzag so I will remain bearish but be vigilante if a bear trap is shaping up.  Gold is still in a rally but oil crashing makes oil become cheaper or cause gold to crash, as any Gold/Oil ratio will adjust itself.

On the daily charts, the 200-day MA has just produced a very small death cross so oil would have to do some fancy footwork to avoid a full-blown death cross.

There are no daily limits in all of the futures contracts I follow which means violent swings can always happen, and if your short oil then you may see some “green” in your oil short positions.

I have a small Forex account where I trade 5-10 oil units depending on how much confidence I have to the downside.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 24:1 and sooner or later this ratio has to shift making oil cheaper if oil keeps crashing in price.  Sooner or later the Gold/Oil ratio will bring the gold price down as well.

If gold blasts up to say $1511,  in a fit of panic, then the Gold/Oil ratio could hit a 62:1 ratio.  Gold can move $100-$200 easily but I have never seen or recorded any ratio spread that a 62:1 ratio would bring.

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