Goldtent TA Paradise


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Gold Daily Chart: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

Since the August 2018 bottom has now charged up getting very close to the $1400 price level.  By the end of the day, gold may breach the $1400 price level.

I have a horizontal line at the $1375 price level which I see as being very special.  The main reason why $1375 is special because it’s a 1.618 ratio from the 1980 gold peak of $850.

The majority of gold bugs are jumping for joy as gold is finally breaking out!

The problem with any bullish run is that when a small majority thinks it’s a bull market break-out it can also be the end of a bigger bear market rally.

The commercial hedgers don’t see a bull market as they have a large net short positions in gold at this time.  If the majority are just waking up to the present bullish phase, they are pretty late already.  A bullish vertical move is never a sign to jump in because they always run out of steam most of the time.

Many believe that the 2011 peak was some ordinary peak so they are just looking for a gold market correction.  2011 is my wave 3 in Cycle degree and I have not been forced to change it just yet!  There is no way that a Cycle degree correction has already completed, so gold could turn south with little effort.

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Crude Oil Intraday Rally Update

As much as I would love to remain bullish with oil, a very sharp spike is also taking place. Oil got to $57.40 this morning and there may be a little more upside still to play out.

I’m sure the rest of the planet of oil speculators wouldn’t dare short oil at this point, because they work on fundamentals which is news. News about some tanker/drone attack and the price of oil goes berserk. Does that mean that oil is in a new bull market? I doubt it, as all this has happened before back in the 1990s.

In those days they had multiple wars driving the price of oil, but in the long run oil still crashed to $10 by 1999. I love to short or sell when I have a vertical move, as they can usher in a big correction or the end of a bullish phase. If oil still charges to $60 then this would be smack dab inside my previous 2nd wave of one lesser degree.

The Gold/Ratio has changed little as it still around 24! I will be rounding down or up my Gold/Ratios. Every time I post a ratio I also enter it in a small log book and in June I went overboard as I recorded 8 Gold/Oil ratios already.

I will give the oil postings a rest unless some unexpected dramatic news comes out.

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