Crude Oil Intraday Mini Crash Review

Late Friday crude oil took a sudden dip which I was expecting but didn’t know exactly when. So far June has been a good month for oil, but a correction seems to be underway.

I would like to see oil drop a few more dollars which could take until after the July holiday celebrations are done with.

Summer driving is around the corner and ICE vehicles will get you where you are going much faster than electric cars will.

Of course, if your battery pack doesn’t blow up first!  EV’s are supposed to replace “ICE” cars or “internal combustion engines” transportation, then why do they need to subsidize electric cars?

I call them “corrections” if I feel that another leg up can happen. Any 5th wave can extend dramatically and once it’s finished, I’m sure a spike will develop on the daily and weekly charts.

A price drop to $57 is what I would like to see, then the $66 price level would be my final price target. So far the waves are good looking impulse waves and they alternated from the choppy “A” wave very well.

Fossil fuels deliver and harvest 80% of all our food so without crude oil it wouldn’t take long before millions would starve to death.

 

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Bitcoin Crash Commentary!

I’m sure many readers have heard how Bitcoin has been crashing lately.  Of course not too many people know what has driven the Bitcoin price up, and now down again.

Bitcoin has been called the “New Gold” but when was the last time you heard of a big bullion heist?

Bitcoin heists and exchange rip-offs are common, with a recent Irish exchange taking traders money.

There is a good chance that Bitcoin can crash to $8000 but a miracle can send Bitcoin soaring again.  A previous 4th wave could be support for one more push to the upside. Bitcoin is nothing special as it sure seems easy to steal.

I lost my Bitcoin money when Mt Gox failed (hacked), so readers can understand why I fail to get excited about any so-called digital coin!

Worldwide Bitcoin Mining consumes about as much electricity as the country of Denmark does, so many countries have to keep burning coal to keep the Bitcoin world going.

One wild solar flare from our sun can fry our electrical grid which will turn Bitcoins into a digital dust pile. At least with the solar flares (CME), we can get a 3-day warning as these flares can raise havoc with earth’s GPS systems and ISS crews have to dive into their safe room.

Gold as money was created by nature has been around for many thousands of years. As for Bitcoins, they are all man-made and cannot survive without human interference as mining operations need to create new coins all the time.

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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Review

Even though Canada is going into a recession, the CAD is moving like it’s over already.   I made a few changes in the count down but I know they are diagonal wave structures.

In the end, I don’t think the CAD bear market is finished until a 4th wave rally has been completely retraced. We will find out if the top trend line will hold and we may even be in a “C” wave of a triangle.  If so we need two more zigzags to play out.

The scary part is that these 4th waves can also blast up taking us to wave 2. That scenario is not on my wishlist but with this crazy market, “Crazy” seems to be the new normal.

Social media has turned against our prime minister and no amount of bull shit “Tweets” will bring him back. If Canadians vote Justin Trudeau back again, it will surprise me to no end.

Besides the elections, we have solar cycle 24 still to contend with by the 2020 time frame.

 

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The Golden Asteroid!

Recently a story has been going around that talks about Asteroid mining which contain massive amounts of precious metals .

The Golden Asteroid That Could Make Everyone On Earth A Billionaire

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SP500 Intraday Bearish Update

Since late last week, the SP500 has been in a bearish funk waiting for some fundamental news that will send stocks soaring again.  The SP500 is sitting on the 200-MA line so when that support is not strong enough, them more downside is sure to come.

At 2969 this market has a major roadblock to contend with in the shape of a triple top and a couple of H&S dips.

The SP500 needs to keep going south before another death cross kicks in.  I’m guilty of leaving the 5th wave uncapped due to lack of room.

Leaving any 5th wave uncapped must not happen as it tells all readers that the wave count is terminated, worse yet it shows we have no confidence in our wave counts.

In the long run, the entire June bull run will get retraced once the SP500 falls below 2740.  We also have to be aware that another correction will complete before then.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is at 2.08 from a high of 2.41, so I still consider that very expensive.

One thing to watch for is how gold is going to react while stocks are heading down. Running into a safe-haven like gold is an emotional decision, and can work against us. As soon as any counter rally or bigger bullish run comes along, those gold investors will start to run like chickens as the stock market is very strong competition for gold.

Solar cycles are the real fundamentals as they produce the bullish business cycles like what happened in early 2009.

Younger investors should track the solar cycles as they also drive all commodity prices. The 2020 elections will happen at the bottom of solar cycle 24 so I’m sure there is lots of room for any turmoil to strike fear into the hearts of investors.

 

 

 

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Crude Oil Daily Chart Update!

This is the September crude oil contract which shows the June crash very well. Now we are faced with a much stronger rally than expected which always calls for an instant review, and look for a better fit.

Today oil is producing another spike to the upside so a correction should be due if this “C” wave bull market has another leg to go.  Any correction can take oil prices back down to the $57 price level before it starts to crank up again.

You can find many fundamental reasons why oil is in a rally but I a few months from now no one will remember any of the fundamentals.  Fear as a motivator is the oldest trick in the book but fear usually, does not last that long.

Commercials are short oil but not by a large amount. The COT reports come out on Friday and we’ll find out if the commercials increased their bearish bets.

The Gold/Oil ratio is 23.48 and with 10 recorded ratios for the month of June, it is the most expensive so far.

At the $66 price level oil would be at a double top and “Truncated” or shorter than a normal looking zigzag.

The June crash is a flat wave pattern because there was a little single zigzag that started out the crash. 3-3-5 is a flat no matter how long the 5 waves decline for.

 

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Crude Oil Intraday Bullish Review

Crude oil has now traveled further than what I would like to see for a bear rally so I have to explore the bullish alternative.

I’m starting wave 1-2 in  Minute degree and the waves do look a bit short at this time. We also know that when it comes to extensions the 5th wave can perform miracles in any commodity.

A very important high would be at the $66 price level which would also produce another double top.

The Gold/Oil ratio is 24.3 which has not changed all that much.

I will keep this short for now as I have to review the daily chart as well.

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Mini DJIA Intraday Record High update

The E-Mini Dow hit a major peak last Friday and has now started a bearish move. The DJIA peaked about 26,922 just short of the 27,000 that many analysts were calling for.

The problem is that they never can tell how deep any correction will go until its too late.

For the rest of this month, we should know if a big top is in but I start a count-down anyways.  If the big party is over then the correction that is coming will be much bigger than most are expecting.  If we are at a Cycle degree peak then any bear market will just be a correction, but it will be a Cycle degree correction.

I could be early again but gold has also turned today. Most of the month of June gold and the E-Mini moved up together, so I have to question the stability or the life span of our present gold run as well.

To automatically assume that gold stocks will soar if the markets go for a mini-crash is wrong. When markets turn bearish then investors can sell anything and everything just to save their asses (assets) from a complete loss, throwing out gold stock ETFs as well. Instead, many analysts are calling for a FOMO inspired melt-up in stocks!

The solar cycle 24 bottom is ahead of us, close to the late 2020 time period and until solar cycle 25 starts, stocks can still act very bearish.

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Gold Intraday Update!

I’m at the 5 min scale which is about as small as I can go. This is starting to look like an inverted zigzag which could be a wave 1-2.  In other words, gold can’t blast to new record highs. At this scale, it will not take long because the action is much faster so it should only take a few days for this to produce a newer low.

I posted a group of futures contracts that took gold to December 2024, producing a $123 spread higher than the cash price. This is a huge spread and I checked again today and the spread has already compressed to $104. This spread should keep compressing once any decline in the gold price gets serious.

The experts say that as long as gold stays above $1400 it remains bullish but below that gold will be bearish. Good luck with that!

With cash oil and the December 2021 contract, oil is about $4-$5 lower than the cash price.  This is very bearish for oil.

With gold, I will check the spread more often as I would expect it to keep compressing.

 

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Canadian Dollar Monthly Chart Review

Our Canadian dollar is also in the US dollar basket and always has been a good indicator to watch. I moved the wave 3 over to the 2011 peak which also matches the first peak of solar cycle 24. They can spew out all sorts of fundamental news to explain any move on the charts, but ask them about the fundamentals in 2000 chances are good they have no clue or can’t remember.

Back in 2000, it was the peak of solar cycle 23 and now we are facing a potential bottom with the ending of solar cycle 24.  It could take the start of solar cycle 25 before the CAD turns bullish again.  No matter how much we ignore the sun, we are under its magic spell!  Solar cycles have a huge impact on business cycles and commodity prices and they are constantly changing our climate as well.

In the last few years, the Canadian dollar has formed an obvious inverted zigzag which is a bear market rally. The present 5th wave decline contains diagonal waves which are pretty common in 5th wave positions.

Our oil industry has been destroyed by the people that want to bring down the entire fossil fuel industry. 80% of all our food is delivered with fossil fuels and if that support was dramatically removed you would see massive starvation in a short period of time and our forests would get decimated just to keep us warm. We need electricity just to keep the internet running mining Bitcoins, never mind trying to get 5G up and running.

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Euro Weekly Chart Review

The Euro is inside the US dollar basket. The grinding bear market that the Euro has been in since the 2008 top are diagonal waves.  The Euro is just about a perfect inverse pattern to what the USD is so if your expecting gold to make a huge rally then you must expect the Euro to soar as well.

The Euro is in a rally right now but it is also near creating another death cross.  The 2018 peak is a potential 4th wave peak or bear market rally so if that is a true position then the entire 2016-2018 rally will still get retraced.

This could take until the solar cycle ends and solar cycle 25 starts as solar cycles have a huge impact on business cycles and prices of commodities. The short version is that solar cycle 25 could be very bullish for the Euro, but is still 1-2 years away.

The commercial hedgers are net long but not by much, while the speculators have a strong short position.

The Primary degree wave 2 top in 2011 matched the first peak in solar cycle 24 which the disbelievers just think is coincidental.  There is no question in my mind that the solar cycles have on earthlings as the 2009 bull market has demonstrated.

Short term the Euro could still be bullish but in time it should resume its bearish phase.

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Crude Oil Intraday Correction?

During the night crude oil started a reversal and the only question is, is it a simple bull market correction or will the entire move in June be retraced?   Only time will tell but the rally does look like a zigzag so I will remain bearish but be vigilante if a bear trap is shaping up.  Gold is still in a rally but oil crashing makes oil become cheaper or cause gold to crash, as any Gold/Oil ratio will adjust itself.

On the daily charts, the 200-day MA has just produced a very small death cross so oil would have to do some fancy footwork to avoid a full-blown death cross.

There are no daily limits in all of the futures contracts I follow which means violent swings can always happen, and if your short oil then you may see some “green” in your oil short positions.

I have a small Forex account where I trade 5-10 oil units depending on how much confidence I have to the downside.

The Gold/Oil ratio is about 24:1 and sooner or later this ratio has to shift making oil cheaper if oil keeps crashing in price.  Sooner or later the Gold/Oil ratio will bring the gold price down as well.

If gold blasts up to say $1511,  in a fit of panic, then the Gold/Oil ratio could hit a 62:1 ratio.  Gold can move $100-$200 easily but I have never seen or recorded any ratio spread that a 62:1 ratio would bring.

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US Dollar Intraday Impending Rally?

In the last few months, the US dollar has made steep drops 3 times already giving gold the extra push to new highs to the $1411 price level.

The only way I can count this out is from a diagonal perspective.

Sometimes there is no obvious zigzag down the 5th wave which would bring a bottom on much sooner than we think.

I may have to knock my degree down one level, as this diagonal decline may be part of an expanded top.

I believe that the US dollar is in a corrective phase and sooner or later the USD bulls will return. On a daily chart, we have many previous 4th wave bottoms that will supply support.

Many think that the US dollar is in a bear market rally but I think the USD is in a much bigger bull market than what the majority think at this time.

Last week the commercials hedgers removed long positions and at the same time added to their short positions which I think was a bearish move. During the week this could all start to change again.

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SP500 Daily Chart Record Highs Review

The markets continued with their relentless bullish advance last week and so far investors in June see no fundamentals to dull their enthusiasm for stocks.

Markets are always full of surprises but I’m sure an upside breakout is what is expected. The problem is that we are sitting at a triple top at the 2970 price level and we have two obvious H&S patterns as well.  In a very bullish scenario that right shoulder would blow its top and the bullish advance would “keep on trucking”.

If investors are just chasing the trend to get back on the bullish bandwagon, then the weak players could be the first to run like chickens screaming the “Sky is falling”.

They don’t even have to run away as a smart algorithm will do it for you.  At 2940 the markets would hit another small triple bottom so once it crashes below that, we have a good chance a bigger or longer bearish phase has started.

Of course, a stock crash or “correction” below the 2320 price level brings out all the bearish fundamental news that you can never read because you would be swamped with the amount of bearish news.  If they declare their 20% bear market drop has arrived chances are good another bullish phase would start again.

Markets never do what the majority want as that would be simple and to easy.

The commercial hedgers offer no special insight as they are net short by only a small amount.

SP500 soared last week but so has gold, if gold and stocks can soar together they can also plunge together as they did in 2008.

The 2020 elections might seem far away but without a doubt, the public is getting brainwashed by the big political parties already.

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Gold Daily Chart Update

Last night gold pushed to $1411 after which it started to back off.  Short term, golds rally may add another leg up but I think that a correction is due

The entire gold bullish phase that started back in late 2015, from the $1050 price level, will soon be 3 1/2 years old.

3 1/2 years for an Intermediate degree move is stretching it so moving everything up by one degree is an option. In other words, we could be in a Primary degree “B” move that is just another big bear market rally.

At a minimum, another correction is due which could send gold back down to the $1260 price level. The $1260 price range would only be a small correction but if a much bigger corrective move is coming then the $1260 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding.

Any gold run below $1160 would confirm that the 5 waves just completing was just part of another fancy bear market rally.

I personally would not be caught dead being long in gold when a vertical move is completing, but the rest of the world is super bullish in gold.

To show how bullish they are I took a screen clip of all the gold contracts going out to December 2024 where gold was already pushing $1511. Any bear attack will certainly change all the above contracts, and with a $100 spread the wave patterns that far out, are radically different.

Sure gold has had a nice run but big bear market rallies can fool us all the time. Gold bulls are smiling as they see this breakout as the beginning, not the end!  Since 2011 gold has had many false bullish moves so what’s the difference this time?

It’s all about the fundamental news but yet nobody can remember these fundamentals a few months later. At least with wave positions, we have a much bigger and longer time horizon.  All the wave counting in the world matters little if we have no clue what degree level that the 2011 peak is.

My gold wave counts need more time until the public lays all its fears on the front pages.

I had a bet going that gold would not see $1400 or higher and yet it did just that, last night. 10 ounces of silver was on the line so I must deliver the 10-ounce silver coin today!

 

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Goldtent TA Paradise

https://goldtadise.com/?p=444861

 

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Gold Daily Chart: Bull Market Or Bear Market Rally?

Since the August 2018 bottom has now charged up getting very close to the $1400 price level.  By the end of the day, gold may breach the $1400 price level.

I have a horizontal line at the $1375 price level which I see as being very special.  The main reason why $1375 is special because it’s a 1.618 ratio from the 1980 gold peak of $850.

The majority of gold bugs are jumping for joy as gold is finally breaking out!

The problem with any bullish run is that when a small majority thinks it’s a bull market break-out it can also be the end of a bigger bear market rally.

The commercial hedgers don’t see a bull market as they have a large net short positions in gold at this time.  If the majority are just waking up to the present bullish phase, they are pretty late already.  A bullish vertical move is never a sign to jump in because they always run out of steam most of the time.

Many believe that the 2011 peak was some ordinary peak so they are just looking for a gold market correction.  2011 is my wave 3 in Cycle degree and I have not been forced to change it just yet!  There is no way that a Cycle degree correction has already completed, so gold could turn south with little effort.

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Crude Oil Intraday Rally Update

As much as I would love to remain bullish with oil, a very sharp spike is also taking place. Oil got to $57.40 this morning and there may be a little more upside still to play out.

I’m sure the rest of the planet of oil speculators wouldn’t dare short oil at this point, because they work on fundamentals which is news. News about some tanker/drone attack and the price of oil goes berserk. Does that mean that oil is in a new bull market? I doubt it, as all this has happened before back in the 1990s.

In those days they had multiple wars driving the price of oil, but in the long run oil still crashed to $10 by 1999. I love to short or sell when I have a vertical move, as they can usher in a big correction or the end of a bullish phase. If oil still charges to $60 then this would be smack dab inside my previous 2nd wave of one lesser degree.

The Gold/Ratio has changed little as it still around 24! I will be rounding down or up my Gold/Ratios. Every time I post a ratio I also enter it in a small log book and in June I went overboard as I recorded 8 Gold/Oil ratios already.

I will give the oil postings a rest unless some unexpected dramatic news comes out.

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Crude Oil Another Intraday Look

As much as I would love to be bullish on oil especially when a potential golden cross is going to kick in. The June 13 bottom has now created an inverse zigzag which is a small bear market rally.

During all of June, we had a sideways market that sure looks like a triangle. Triangles happen in “4th” waves and “B” waves.

Just as fast as this golden crossing kissed it can also turn right back into a death cross!  Everybody is waiting for “Fundamental News” that might send crude oil soaring. Traders or investors can get very emotional during any news release which can send the markets down just as easily.

I trade the WTI Forex units and tried short positions several times this year so I cry a lot if I miss another shorting opportunity. I’m not just after any move as I look for any potential 5 wave sequences I can ride up or down.

If a potential move has a 50/50 chance then I only take small positions or be prepared to bail out fast.

The Gold/Oil ratio is around 24:1 which I would like to see expand some more.  I may have to wait until the weekend before I post another oil wave count.

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Dow-30 E-mini Daily Chart Review

All indices I  cover has now moved into the September month.   This market sure seems like it doesn’t want to quit until a new record high is established.

With this DOW an expanded pattern started to form back in May  2019 when the impulse started to fall apart.  At the June’s bottom, the Nasdaq and the SP500 created a perfect H&S while this DOW rolled over and created just a single bottom.

This futures chart is not manipulated and we can see big gaps when activity was still rather weak. You can bet that investors are waiting for some report or announcement but that happens 24/7. They are all hoping that the trade war will end, so any bad news could send the markets reeling.

If this is another last hurrah then this market could make a radical jump even from this level.  What many do not see is the huge H&S top just about 1-year-old. That can be a huge resistance factor even if the DOW charges up to 27,000.

The Gold/Dow ratio has not changed all that much and is sitting at 19:1, Expensive is about 21:1 so not until this 19:1 ratio gets chopped down in size can I turn super bullish again.

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Gold Intraday Chart And Impending Death Cross!

My last gold post got 323 page views within the first 24 hours after being posted, which has broken many records that have only been beaten  3-4 times before.

At this time the intraday chart moving averages show a potential death cross can happen if gold’s recent spike is a bigger event than expected.

Crossings happen more frequently at this intraday scale but it will take more time for gold to show us a new direction.

In order for the death cross to happen the gold price needs to crash a bit further but knowledge about any crossings is pretty useless if we don’t understand the “Lag Time” involved.

The small Minuette degree wave 2 may already be completed so hopefully gold will confirm it very soon.

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Crude Oil Intraday Impending Golden Cross?

Most of my intraday charts are at the 90 min scales with 500 bars. I like to use the same settings all the time which helps to stabilize the charts.  At the top which I think is wave 2 in Minor degree, the death cross developed and the rest is now history.  After every death cross comes a golden cross, so it would not take much of a price rally, before oil would be back in a golden cross situation.

The trend line I have will not hold and when it breaks out then it gives me a clue that one higher degree is still in play. The $55 price level would be the first price target, but the entire rally can go much further.

Even now I can draw a bullish wedge which is also very bullish at least in the short term.

The Gold/Oil ratio has not changed all that much and is around 25.7 and hitting the ratio brick wall. Oil crashed from a ratio of 20:1 so a 25:1 ratio is not all that cheap just yet.

Hopefully, we’ll know by the end of the week if another little bullish phase is in effect.

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Quick Gold Daily Chart Update

Once I looked at what the commercial hedgers did last week I had to post something.  Last week the commercials added some of the most bearish positions in gold that I have seen.

Sure gold can go higher as the speculators are the true trend chaser!

This record goes back to June 2018 with a huge commercial short position and speculators having a huge long position. It’s impossible for both groups to be right at the same time.

From my experience, it’s the speculators that are the trend chasers and usually the first people to panic when they find out that they are wrong. All it takes is one group to see the set-up at the same time. A large group or a small group matters little as small panics happen all the time.

One strong drop in the gold price can send the speculators into sheer panic as they try and squirm their way out of a bull trap.

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SP500 Intraday Update And Some Full Moon Commentary!

My little moon app tells me that we are also at a full moon which can be very bearish at times. The problem with using the moon cycles is that they are not that reliable as some make them out to be. At times major reversals have occurred during the full moon, but so have new moons.

The next new moon should be July 3, 2019, still a few weeks away.  Sometimes midweek will supply a turning in the stock markets so a reversal could still take a few days.

I would love to count down 5 waves in Minute degree but this wave structure just doesn’t fit a wave 2 rally,  as I would like to see the SP500 initially go a bit deeper. Otherwise, we would need some wild extensions for this impending 5 wave run in Minute degree.

Commercial hedgers net short positions hardly show up, which is still fairly bullish from my perspective. I’ll give this bullish run until the end of the week where this strong bullish trend faces a correction or an end to this bullish phase.  If this June bull run is just a big bear market rally then eventually the SP500 would have to retrace the 2730 price level.

The Gold/SP500 ratio has not changed that much and it’s still at the 2.16:1 range which is still far too expensive, as gold ratios go.

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US Dollar Daily Chart Review:

Since the 2018 bottom (wave 4) the US dollar has been in a bullish phase and at this point, I still can’t see a major trend reversal in the making.  With the entire world trying to destroy the US dollar it still looks like it wants to keep pushing higher.

Since the 2019 bottom, the US dollar has produced an overlapping pattern that frankly has been a real challenge to sort out.  2019 has turned into a diagonal nightmare because diagonal waves can be mistaken for a bearish rally it is easy to come up with a wave count where the US dollar is going to crash.

I’ve mentioned it many times but I think the US dollar is in a much bigger bull market that we can imagine and no amount of fundamental reasoning can change its direction until it is ready to do so. The real bottom with the US dollar was back in 2008 when the entire world thought the USD had died and was advised to get out of the USD and into gold.

All the gold bugs are eager to see the US dollar crash again and it may happen, as any bull market needs good healthy corrections to stay alive.

I’m sure my bullish wave counts are going against the US dollar bears and at one point the commercial hedgers shifted to a massive net short position that I thought would finish the US dollar bull market.

Last week the commercial hedgers made a very bullish move as they added 2597 contracts to their long side. Don’t get me wrong as the commercials are still net short by a large margin.

Our last bottom with the US dollar was about May 7, 2019, which could be a bottom for another leg up. Any bullish move should push the US dollar to a new record high even if it’s only by a very slim margin.

Commercials turned very bearish towards our CAD and gold last week, which also helps my bullish case.

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Gold Weekly Chart Review

For the last 3 1/2 years, gold has been in a sideways pattern and is now approaching the upper part of this range, $1360-$1375.  At $1400 gold’s breakout would be pretty obvious and I’m sure the gold bulls will be cheering.

This weekly chart 2019 death cross,  has been avoided for now but I’m sure that the death cross will happen.

At $1050 or lower gold would confirm that for the last 3-4 years, the gold price has just been in a big bear market rally.

Trying to hunt for an Intermediate degree wave 3-4 is now over 3 years old and compared to other Intermediate degree corrections since 2011, this is getting a bit too long.

Jumping up by one degree definitely cures the time problem but we still have a location problem. Gold is acting this bullish but silver is still far behind. If the surge in the gold price is fear based, then the gold bulls could get worn out and run and hide.

Many may think that the $1050 price level is some miracle support price but nobody knows what that 2016 bottom really is. When the 2011 peak hit I think it was a Cycle degree top and frankly there is little chance that a Cycle degree 4th wave has already completed at this point in time.

At a minimum gold would have to dip into the 1980 price peak of $850 before any major new bull market will occur. All commodities run under diagonal idealized patterns, which means there are always many zigzags that connect together. With gold, the 5 waves ending in 2011 was a Primary degree “C” wave run.

With the impending bottom of solar cycle 24, anything can still happen to the gold price.

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Crude Oil Intraday Tanker Attack!

In the last 6-7 days, crude oil has created a double bottom followed by price surge due to some tanker attacks bound for Asia. Events like this happen but rarely do they spawn a complete bull market.

Crude oil can keep going but it should reach the top trend line before I turn bearish again.  I use oil futures to help set-up a Forex oil unit position. I like to make short bets as taking a strong long position can get us into a trap.  If a single oil short shows “Red” in my account then I get out and wait for a better bearish set-up.

Oil is in a bigger bearish phase than what we think but oil traders jump on a bullish move chasing the price.

Right now oil may be bullish for all of June as there is the potential of a 4th wave counter rally still to complete.

 

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Crude Oil Intraday Update And Impending Golden Cross!

With this December intraday chart, we can see that crude oil already had a death cross at the $61 price level. Crossings happen more frequently at this intraday level and another crude oil bullish phase would be a set-up for a golden cross.

There is room for oil to rally again, right to the top trend line at the $56.50 price level.  Another leg up sure could force a golden cross in oil to happen.  The problem with moving averages is that they are useless after they happen.

Any summer rally at this point sure could produce a golden cross but then another new set-up for another death cross can also happen.

I use crude oil futures as a set-up for trading Forex oil units so this morning I closed off any short positions I had in Brent and WTI oil. I sure can be wrong so I only take very small bullish positions where it is easy to bail out just in case no rally takes place at all.

Any price spike with a vertical move would force me to close any short term bullish positions, but if the bullish phase comes true then I would be building a new short position.

Another bullish move could take all of June to play out and surprise moves should be expected.

The Gold/Oil ratio has improved with a reading of 25.40:1 this morning and I want that spread to keep getting wider.

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Beyond Meat Crash Review!

My first try looking for a wave count fail by a wide margin which was around the $74 price level.  Retail participants don’t care about any value they just don’t want to be left behind.

If you owned BYND then you only had a 1-2 day window to unload!  Selling into the spike is the best but if you see the spike or not, all depends on how you manipulate your charts.

I think this chart is heading into a bear market as a major price peak is already in by late Friday. We have a large gap open below present prices which I think will get filled at the $100 price level.

Bear market rallies retrace themselves and we have to wait and see if BYND falls below its IPO price.

The spike high was around the $185 but the charts only quote $150.  At best the $60-$70 price level may produce some support but solar cycle 24 could be pulling Beyond Meat down as well.

Back in May, I took a Gold/BYND ratio reading which was about 18:1 with the recent ratio reading of only 7.44:1.

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Natural Gas Monthly Chart 1970-2019 Review

Without a doubt, natural gas belongs in the diagonal family of patterns.  Commodities that I cover all have diagonal wave structures and this has been true since the Little Ice Age ended.  (Wave II in Supercycle degree) When SC degree wave II ended is debatable but the majority of scientists say 1850 is when the climate changed.

In modern times we have more NG available to us than at any time in our history. Fracking made the difference and soon “Electric Fracking”, will become popular.

Trying to work out natural gas supply and demand is a futile effort because once the demand for NG slows they just vent or burn off excess inventory.  

They figure that 1/3 of all Natural gas is burned off like this. The more supply they have the higher the flaring rate becomes. Northern Canada is also home to flaring off excess inventory which most satellite systems can measure.

Since the 1984 peak NG prices switched patterns as before 1984 the massive bull market was pretty smooth but soon after that, the NG price patterns changed dramatically.

This is very normal and happens at all degree scales that I use.  Gold was also a big zigzag bull market but a 20-year bear market kept us scratching our heads.

The “C” wave came to an end in 2005 and a new bearish phase has started that is still running 14 years later. The NG bear market is still not finished as a new record low should still get established in the next few years.

The slow and steady decline of solar cycle 24 is drawing NG prices down until solar cycle 25 cranks up. The sun and its cycles have a huge impact on NG prices and that is about as fundamental as we can get,  yet the majority all ignore solar cycle fundamentals.

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