The chart above shows how bullish the commercial hedgers are, so working a bearish wave count against their bearish outlook is like playing “Chicken”, so we have to be aware that a potential rally could surprise us.
Our Cad futures chart has been grinding down for years since the 2017 peak, which I believe was an inverted zigzag. The US Dollar produced the same type of choppy waves in a 5th wave decline and at that time the USD commercials were also net long by a wide margin.
This decline is part of the bear market so the CAD can still grind its way to the .68 cent price level or even lower. There are no daily trading limits in commodities futures so there is nothing to stop any move until it exhausts itself. Our CAD was repelled in 2011 by solar cycle 24s, second peak.
The end of solar cycle 24 is pulling the CAD down, but when solar cycle 25 starts up, our CAD should soar right along with it.
The Nasdaq is the furthest along in its bearish move as it’s closer to what might end up being a double bottom and a Head and Shoulder pattern. It could take the rest of May to find out as the right shoulder is what’s important. A bullish bottom could push the Nasdaq back up, but if the bears are still in control, then the right shoulder will never hold.
Even though I have seen these H&S patterns many times before, they can all react differently. If you use your hand and see it as a “Middle Finger” and two knuckles, then chances are good that the market is sending tech investors a signal.
The trade war is all about a tech war and it’s disrupting every major distribution channel around the world. It’s no longer just one thing for any bearish fundamentals as climate change is supposed to be destroying our world!
I’m bearish longer-term until I see the Gold/Nasdaq ratio get much cheaper. Sure the Gold/Nasdaq ratio at 5.7:1 is better, but that is still miles away from becoming cheap. The commercial hedgers are not that bearish so that can produce some surprise moves as well.
If you think that 5G is going to produce utopia here on earth then think again, when there is not enough electricity being produced in the world to support it. One big solar flare can send us back to the stone age pretty quick but yet the majority of experts ignore the power of the sun and its cycles.
It would be a sick joke to have to build nuclear reactors just to keep the internet of things running. (5G).
Between the five indices cover none of them have the exact same wave count. They are all different and I have to try different short term wave counts as well.
Right now I see a declining diagonal pattern about 7 days old, which could give us a surprise price rally. There is no price support worth mentioning because most price support forecasts never hold before the digital ink even drys. Longer term I’m bearish and it’s not rocket science to dig up a reason why!
The trade war is on everyone’s lips and it will not be over anytime soon. Of course, the President thinks he can keep “Tweeting” trying to keep the markets afloat. Sooner or later the “Tweets” no longer will have the same effect as investors will get bored with them.
The SP500 is not loaded down with as many tech-related companies, but the Nasdaq sure is. I will post the Nasdaq as its chart is close to short-term support.