Walmart: A Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Perspective

When I first looked at this chart I freaked, as this chart is a diagonal wave structure nightmare. Staring at it for an hour or two first is necessary. This is the first look I had at WMT in years, but I think WMT is important to watch considering the trade war with China was cranked up on Wednesday.

For now, I will leave the above chart with only two trend lines where the top line touches three peaks. Once WMT crashes through the bottom trendline then we would be at one higher degree.

I believe that the 2013 peak was the end of wave 3 in Intermediate degree followed by an expanded pattern and then 5 waves down in Minute degree. The five waves down in Minute degree started at the beginning of 2015 and lasted a bit under a year.

Since the 2016 bullish start, I had trouble figuring the 5 waves as it also looks like another zigzag. Then again in early, 2018 Walmart’s stock imploded followed by yet another set of 5 waves looking like an impulse, which is labeled “A” wave in Minute degree.

From the late 2018 bottom WMT started up again but this time the C5 wave has started out with small overlapping waves. Walmart could break to new record highs but it can remain very short when we are so close to a triple top.

One worst case scenario is that the 2018 peak is the real top and we are heading up a “B” wave in Intermediate degree. I’m sure there are not daily limits with most single stocks so any “C” wave crash can move very fast and violent.

Walmart has already warned that prices could go up and shoppers will be the first to see if the shelves don’t get filled or you can’t find coffee on sale anymore.

I have no Gold/WMT ratio database setup as I have to do some back checking to get those numbers. At a 12.6:1 ratio today I’m assuming that this is an expensive Gold/WMT ratio.


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Mini DOW Intraday Bullish Moves Update

So far this market is still going in the direction I was anticipating but we could be in another correction.  At 26,050 we are running into previous 4th wave highs, that could act like a brick wall.

Blasting past resistance sure would help to keep my bottom 4th wave count alive a little bit longer.  For now, it looks like a diagonal run is forming as this wave 3  looks like another zigzag to me at this intraday scale.

Every 5 waves in the zigzag alternates in quality, one set (A5) can be smooth without any visible waves, while the second 5 wave set (B5), has more obvious subdivisions.

If the bigger bullish picture is alive then this run could last the rest of May, but if this run is just a short term bear market rally, then we would be lucky to last into next week.

The moving averages offer no special insight at this time but the DOW came to a halt at the 50-Day MA line.

Of course, gold reacted to the bullish markets by crashing.

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