Copper 1980-2011 Review

Since 1980 copper has made some very violent moves which are pretty common in the commodities world. This has been true since the Little Ice Age bottom which I count as wave 2 in Supercycle degree. The little ice age ended in the early 1800s and “Global Warming” started to take hold as the solar cycles picked up in sunspot activity.

In 2000 solar cycle 23 peak turned copper upside down and send it soaring until the first 2011 peak of solar cycle 24. In early 2011 copper prices imploded once again which produced a pattern that needs more time to play out.

The commercials are net long but not by that much so flipping a coin on short term direction may work just as well.  The early 2016 bottom produced what looks like a 5 wave impulse, but when you look at it with a daily chart they can count as a diagonal set of 5 waves.

Short term copper can produce more downside movement, but the electric car “Mania” has produce copper demand to a point where an electric car needs large amounts of copper to run.  1-2 Decades into the future I’m sure electric cars will go into the crushers and recycle all that copper they have been using.

There are no daily trading limits on most commodities so it is one of the main reasons why copper can make such extreme moves!

I think the impending start to solar cycle 25 could push copper prices to the upside which may still be 1-2 years away.

https://www.energyandcapital.com/report/energy-metals-outlook-2019/5056

The link above shows that copper is called an “Energy Metal” as well, so copper is required for everything “Green”.  Electric Fracking technology is coming so that alone can also increase the demand for copper.

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Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart Update

Even though the commercial hedgers are net long the Canadian Dollar by a 2:1 ratio, I will keep working our CAD with a bearish outlook.  When the Canadian dollar hit its peak in 2011 its price was repelled to the downside with the first peak in solar cycle 24. Many other commodities also imploded notably all gold related assets.

This provided the push to the 2016 bottom, after which the CAD exploded violently. Not just once but twice with the same looking pattern.

This all can be taken as a bullish sign, but I see an inverted zigzag which has not completed. From the 2017 peak, the CAD has declined with overlapping waves, which helps in thinking we are in a 5th wave decline.

To help confirm that the CAD is still in a bear market rally, the 73 cent price level will not hold, and at best we will get a huge double bottom at the 68 cent price level.  This may take until late 2020 to play out but by then we could see the arrival of solar cycle 25.

The world is in a war against the use of fossil fuels, the likes we have never experienced before. In the last 2-3 years, the language has changed to the “War On Climate Change”. Global warming wording has disappeared from mainstream media headlines, replaced by just “Climate Change”.

The world is all in a panic to stop the climate from changing, which is actually a war on our sun!  Good luck with that folks, as I have never seen anyone win betting against the sun.

We may still get a bullish push with the CAD but in the near term, support will not hold.

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