When the Euro hit a major bottom in 2000 it coincided well with the peak of solar cycle 23. The Euro was repelled to the upside during the entire length of the down phase of solar cycle 23. The Euro gave us close to a 9 year bullish phase which “Coincidently” ended in early 2009. After 2009 the Euro started a bearish decline which coincided with the two peaks of solar cycle 24. (2011 and 2014) The decline of solar cycle 24 repelled the Euro to the downside or another way of looking at it is that the solar cycle is drawing prices to it like a magnet.
I would expect that the upswing of solar cycle 25 could send the Euro into another bullish phase, which still may take until late 2020 before that happens. It’s great for longer cycles but in the short term, a 5 wave sequence still seems to be rolling along.
I would be bullish as well if a long spike developed to the downside, which has not happened yet.
The commercials are betting on the bearish trend to continue as we can see they have now built up a very strong net long position. Of course, the speculators have gone the opposite direction as they have a bearish outlook for the Euro.
Any bearish wave count supports the speculators, but both parties can’t be right at the same time.
The gold bugs need for the Euro to explode, as it is in the USD basket and acts inverse to the USD.