Quick Intraday US Dollar Update

For the last 6 weeks, the US dollar has seen some wild moves which also produces some spikes that don’t show up with a line type setting.  The US Dollar couldn’t stand up any longer and looks like another correction is playing out.

Still, the US dollar is not going to dive into a bear market pushing the price of gold much higher, at least not yet!

The trade war has been going on for a long time already so the USD could have imploded many times already, but so far it has refused to do so, except for corrections.

I will remain bullish on the USD but the commercial hedgers may not see it that way in tonight’s COT reports.

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Gold Daily Chart: Fear Moves Don’t Last!

So far gold is doing what I wanted to see happen, but it’s so choppy that it can be part of a diagonal decline and never breakout or see $1350.  Gold looks like it’s in a correction but I also have to keep my diagonal options open.

A little crash in the USD sure helps to fire up the emotional investors as they charge into gold. When you hear investors running to gold as a safe haven hiding spot, then this is an emotional decision and not a logic longer-term investment.

At this daily chart scale, gold has not bounced off the 200-day MA, which will be important to watch.

I have made some changes to the wave count and we will see if a new bearish low happens.

It also depends on how bullish or how bearish the commercial hedger’s COT reports are tonight.

I’m sure President Trump’s duties slapped on Mexico was a surprise, but really folks what do you expect in a trade war. In 1930 the trade war had the same effect when they signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Small tariff wars have never really stopped as many presidents also loved to enforce duties.

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Crude Oil Intraday Crash Update

Crude oil gave us a short bullish move before oil reversed and plunged to a new bearish low.  Oil has completed 2 sets of zigzags and we need two more and maybe a third, which could turn into a flat.

Another $5-$6 drops would be nice and then oil would be ready for a wave 3-4 rally in Minor degree.  These diagonal waves can make spectacular moves when there are no daily trading limits.

I would love to see another small 5 waves down in Minuette degree before another potential counter rally can kill the bears and send them running back into the forest!

They’ll be back and that should coincide with my 5th wave down in Minor degree.

The Gold/Oil ratio definitely got better but at 22.8:1, it’s still not enough to jump up and down about.  I do have some WTI short positions and so far the trade is in the green.

All this can fall apart if the “B” wave in Intermediate degree is too far off base. It may take until November/December before this, “Run of Five” gets completed.

When the “B” wave disappears on this 90 min chart then the wave 2 in Minor degree will be the main position I’ll be counting from.

The problem is that any “E” wave bottom in Primary degree could be below the $26 price level which is about $30 away from today’s price low. For that to come true some serious extensions would have to help it otherwise oil could come to a grinding halt much earlier.

During this 90 min chart, we had a golden cross and then right back into a death cross. With the daily chart, it will not take long for the 50-day MA to slice through the 200-day MA.

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Dow 30 Intraday Bearish Update

Finally, the DOW had another price failure and is now pushing into new bearish territory.  I’m sure it’s just a matter of time before investors start a mini panic. A mini panic is when a group of people all “See”  the same situation and start to act at the same.  Most of the time they “Panic” at the wrong time which usually turns into a short term buying opportunity.

The Mini DJIA  sure had a wild counter-rally in May which now has completely retraced itself.  The media turns bullish while the pattern suggests that just a mini bear market rally has occurred.

The SP500 has about the same pattern, while the Nasdaq displayed a much better flowing 4th and 5th wave.  It may take until June for this last part to play out but either way, my 5 wave run in Minor degree, will have to come to an end.

Another Intermediate degree is next on the list and even that may not be any bigger physically, than what we are looking at right now.

The trade war continues but now it’s all about Rare Earth Elements and the Energy Metals.

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Brent Crude: Intraday Rally Review

July Is the next active month and we can see a small rally has taken place which could be part of another zigzag in Minute degree.  For this particular bear, rally wave count to last Brent crude must crash below $67 which would be about another $6 price drop!

Of course, all the bearish reasons why Brent crude is crashing will come out, as it’s the analyst’s job to produce the fundamental reasons why.  Oil has been crashing even though commercial hedgers were still long last week.

I’m pretty sure some analysts will blame the price swings on climate change as the Green parties seemed to take control in Europe.

The fact is any price surge in oil will always get stopped as traders start to see a temporary glut in the making.
The Gold/Brent ratio is 18:1 which is still very expensive to my liking.
Brent could remain bearish for a month or so but summer holidays may change the supply and demand scenario again.

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Crashing Australian Dollar: Monthly Chart Update

Since August 2011 the Australian dollar has been in a bear market. The big counter rallies can fool us into thinking the Australian bear market is over.  The 2011 AUD peak and our CAD both ended as solar cycle 24 was finishing.

This is not something coincidental, as the sun cycles impact all currencies. In the last year or so we had a sideways rally that many figured was the start of a new bull market. I was raked over the coals about remaining bearish to the AUD and CAD.

Reality is starting to set in where this 4th wave rally is close to being completely retraced at the 68 cent price level, which is not too far away.

A wild erroneous spike still shows up but other settings do not confirm this spike, so I ignore them. No doubt about it, the AUD decline is not your picture perfect 5 wave impulse as they are rare in anything commodities related.

At 60 cents the Australian dollar would be getting close to the 2008 crash bottom which ended solar cycle 23.  The only difference between then and now is that the solar cycle number increased by one.

Australian dollar commercial positions are stacked to a net long position which is a bullish indicator but they can remain that way for extended periods of time.

I believe that the start of solar cycle 25 is going to be positive for both of our currencies but that knowledge means little if we have never experienced the mood change that solar cycles bring.

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Gold Daily Chart: Impending Breakout?

For the last 3 months gold has been declining but the waves have been overlapping to a point where we can be in a triangle with the “E” wave still to complete.

Last week the commercials in gold and silver made some bullish moves as they added longs and took away short positions.  Gold doesn’t have to fall to $ 1260 as it could just blast up from today’s prices as well.

If a bullish move is still pending then that right shoulder trend line should not hold.  Any price move above $1350 would be a good sign If we are in a corrective pattern and we get a 5th wave. It could be as long as wave three by the time this rally is finished.

We still have a full week of trading for May but then June could produce another reversal.

 

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Hui Price Spike Anomaly!

 

When I looked at HUI in the last few days I saw that the chart contained a price spike topping out at about 8728. It’s a screen clip and you can call it a sick joke if you like. Anomalies like this can and do happen in ETFs, stocks, and futures.

Since this spike lasted over the weekend this spike may not disappear. Algorithms running amok or just a temporary glitch?

If it stays it renders the HUI useless for counting waves. Readers using other software sites may never see this spike but it was such a  ridiculous of a move I had to post it, if not just for entertainment purposes.

When we spot an anomaly like this, just check other related assets like GDX or GDXJ to see if they also spiked. They didn’t so that helped to confirm that this HUI spike is just an illusion and should be ignored.

I have about 9 settings I can use and this price anomaly only shows on a few.

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Crude Oil Crash Intraday Update

This is the December 2019 contract.  During May the counter rally had many analysts forecasting the return of the bull but instead the oil bears came out out and decided to shred oil bulls which produced about a $6 price crash.

Since the April top I believe a diagonal decline is a high possability and started the count to help confirm it.

I have 2 zigzags in a row so that rules out any flat at this time, but it also means crude oil can come back and dip well into the previous wave 2 of the same degree. This would be close to the $62 price level and must not exceed above May 2019 highs. ($63.25)

The big test is yet to come so we have to see if any rally continues to be choppy or even go sideways for the rest of the month.

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Canadian Dollar Daily Chart Update

The chart above shows how bullish the commercial hedgers are, so working a bearish wave count against their bearish outlook is like playing “Chicken”, so we have to be aware that a potential rally could surprise us.

Our Cad futures chart has been grinding down for years since the 2017 peak,  which I believe was an inverted zigzag. The US Dollar produced the same type of choppy waves in a 5th wave decline and at that time the USD commercials were also net long by a wide margin.

This decline is part of the bear market so the CAD can still grind its way to the .68 cent price level or even lower. There are no daily trading limits in commodities futures so there is nothing to stop any move until it exhausts itself. Our CAD was repelled in 2011 by solar cycle 24s, second peak.

The end of solar cycle 24 is pulling the CAD down, but when solar cycle 25 starts up, our CAD should soar right along with it.

 

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Nasdaq Intraday Crash Update

The Nasdaq is the furthest along in its bearish move as it’s closer to what might end up being a double bottom and a Head and Shoulder pattern.  It could take the rest of May to find out as the right shoulder is what’s important. A bullish bottom could push the Nasdaq back up, but if the bears are still in control, then the right shoulder will never hold.

Even though I have seen these H&S patterns many times before, they can all react differently.  If you use your hand and see it as a “Middle Finger” and two knuckles, then chances are good that the market is sending tech investors a signal.

The trade war is all about a tech war and it’s disrupting every major distribution channel around the world. It’s no longer just one thing for any bearish fundamentals as climate change is supposed to be destroying our world!

I’m bearish longer-term until I see the Gold/Nasdaq ratio get much cheaper. Sure the Gold/Nasdaq ratio at 5.7:1 is better, but that is still miles away from becoming cheap. The commercial hedgers are not that bearish so that can produce some surprise moves as well.

If you think that 5G is going to produce utopia here on earth then think again, when there is not enough electricity being produced in the world to support it. One big solar flare can send us back to the stone age pretty quick but yet the majority of experts ignore the power of the sun and its cycles.

It would be a sick joke to have to build nuclear reactors just to keep the internet of things running. (5G).

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E-Mini SP500 Intraday Gyrations Review

Between the five indices cover none of them have the exact same wave count. They are all different and I have to try different short term wave counts as well.

Right now I see a declining diagonal pattern about 7 days old, which could give us a surprise price rally. There is no price support worth mentioning because most price support forecasts never hold before the digital ink even drys. Longer term I’m bearish and it’s not rocket science to dig up a reason why!

The trade war is on everyone’s lips and it will not be over anytime soon. Of course, the President thinks he can keep “Tweeting” trying to keep the markets afloat.  Sooner or later the “Tweets” no longer will have the same effect as investors will get bored with them.

The SP500 is not loaded down with as many tech-related companies, but the Nasdaq sure is. I will post the Nasdaq as its chart is close to short-term support.

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Tesla $10 Price Forecast?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3465547-morgan-stanley-cuts-bear-case-tesla-10

 

It never fails that when a market goes down analysts come up with all the reasons why. A worst-case $10 price crash forecast may be a bit too radical even for my bearish outlook, but it sure would not surprise me if Tesla eventually did crash to below $40.

Everything about electric cars is overdone as supply is far exceeding demand. Tesla’s stock price was another mania move on par with the Tulip Mania.

Figuring out the top is a real challenge and I may have to adjust some diagonal wave structures which would contain the  Cycle degree wave 3 top.

Don’t get excited about this thinking to buy on the dips, because the stock can crash and fill that little gap at $40. Between $30-$40 Tesla would have good price support.

A few auto-pilot crashes sure can turn investors off and besides that TSLA is on a cash burn that it can’t maintain.

Either way the start of solar cycle 25 could send Tesla stock price soaring again.

The Gold/TSLA ratio is at 6.20:1 this morning which is a bit better than the 1.13 expensive ratio I do have. This ratio still has to spread as 6:1 is still far too expensive

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Brent Crude: Will It Ever Crash?

This is the July 2019 Brent futures contract which I am working as a potential triangle in Cycle degree. Since the July 2008 peak of $148 Brent crude has never pushed higher in close to 11 years.  During this time Brent crashed twice producing spectacular lows in the process.

Can Brent crude crash and make one more major bottom, or will it soar to new record highs? All the wild fundamentals would suggest higher prices, even with the tainted oil problem being worked on. One minute supplies can be choked and the next thing you know Brent crude flows.

Regardless of how any shortage may come about, the commercial traders are sitting on net long positions. With those odds going against the bears, my wave count has a slim chance of coming true.

Of course, the end of solar cycle 24 may only be 1-2 years away which has been a magnet for oil prices. The 2008 crash, “End of the solar cycle 23”,  is a prime example of how fast oil crashed at that time.

The part of the world that is in sheer panic about climate change, should stop and think about what impact the sun and its cycles have on all life on earth.

My Gold/Brent ratio database goes back just  1 year with one expensive reading of a little over 15:1, today we are sitting at 17.7:1 which is still very expensive when compared to the US cash gold price.

The chart above just produced another spike to the upside so at least a correction is due. In the long run, there are no shortages of oil in the world but there sure are distribution problems, created by two wars,  one war on fossil fuels and our present trade war.

The war drums may also be sounding with Iran but as I see it, President Trump will try and avoid any major conflict if he can.

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US Dollar Intraday: Impending Correction?

This is just a quick update and may not last long enough before the digital paint even has a chance to dry.  There is a chance that a correction is still in progress and that the US dollar could make a deep decline this week.

Nothing but a 100% retracement would satisfy or help confirm the bearish wave count above. Any intraday decline of the USD could also send gold on a bullish move as fear attacks the stock bulls.  Any push to new US dollar record highs would send this wave count to the digital “Bone Yard” very quick.

I look for long spikes pointing down as they tend to be corrective “C” waves coming to an end.

 

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US Daily Chart Bull Market Update

In February 2018 the US dollar crash came to an end, which I believe to be the end of a correction in this ongoing bull market. The big US dollar bear market came to an end in 2008 when it exploded in price.

Many contrarians were warning us that the USD could turn very bullish as all the US dollar bears were in a massive bear trap.

2008 wasn’t just a temporary bottom it was a “Bear Mania” bottom.

I know there is no such thing, but I’m trying to make a strong point that “Manias” work both ways. 2008 was also a huge 23-year bear market bottom with the shape of a falling wedge.

Since then the USD has spawned a major bull market which could last decades but that will produce corrections that many believe will be the start of a new bear market.

On the daily chart above, the 2019 bullish US move has some wild moves in it that need more time to clear up. At this time I will count them as a diagonal wave structure.

I will not be a “Happy Wave Counting Camper” until the US dollar soars past the 103.650 price level, with 120 being the ultimate price target.

A month or so ago the commercial hedgers dumped massive amounts of long positions which did not support my bullish outlook anymore.

With the US in the largest trade war in its history, you would figure that the US dollar would implode. Last week commercials took away 1316 short positions and even added 233 contracts to their long positions. I see that as a bullish development and to some extent, supports my bullish wave counts.

The Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act signed in 1930 killed the stock market in 1929, but stocks have not reacted to our present trade war that much. How long that will last may just be the best guess scenario at this time.

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SP500 E-Mini Intraday Gyrations Update

Between the 5 indices, I generally watch, each one has a slightly different pattern and in the case of the SP500, I have one small zigzag that doesn’t fit as well as I would like.

At the 2895 price level, we have several previous 4th wave peaks which also have some spikes in them.  Draw a line across the 2895 price level and we also have an H&S pattern which could also be very bearish. In a bull market that right shoulder would never hold but when investors are in a bearish mood, that right shoulder will just keep on crashing.

It’s a full moon today so next week could end up being a wild ride indeed. What else is new?  I would rather see some fast action than when the markets are in a sideways pattern.

Either way longer term I’m bearish, but nothing can stop a wild counter rally when we least expect them.  A Minor degree wave 1-2 can work but a surprise rally produced by a stock bull attack sure can create a ruckus.

The commercials are not that bearish so this leaves it wide open for moves in both directions.

The Gold/SP500 ratio is at 2.26:1 and it’s been hitting this 2:1 ratio brick wall since May 2018. Longer term we may end up close to a 1:1 ratio but it will take a long time to get there.

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Intraday Crude Oil Rally Update

This crude oil rally in the month of May looks like an inverted zigzag and can work as a bear market rally. Diagonal waves do make wild moves and can confuse us by breaking out to a new record high.

In a true blue bear market rally, this chart cannot push to a new high past that April peak of $64.89, otherwise we have to assume that the bull market had not completed in April.

In the next week or two oil should give us a better picture, but I sure would like to see oil breakout of this short term sideways market.

The Gold/Oil ratio hasn’t changed that much as at 20.30:1 the Gold/Oil ratio number is still hitting a brick wall which started in the first part of April 2019.

I will not repeat or entertain the reams of fundamental data being continuously spewed out, as it’s impossible for me to compete.

Fear of war can drive prices, but fear moves are highly overrated as they rarely last very long. Fear of war also happened in the first Gulf war so our present situation is not that much different.

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Walmart: A Cycle Degree Elliott Wave Perspective

When I first looked at this chart I freaked, as this chart is a diagonal wave structure nightmare. Staring at it for an hour or two first is necessary. This is the first look I had at WMT in years, but I think WMT is important to watch considering the trade war with China was cranked up on Wednesday.

For now, I will leave the above chart with only two trend lines where the top line touches three peaks. Once WMT crashes through the bottom trendline then we would be at one higher degree.

I believe that the 2013 peak was the end of wave 3 in Intermediate degree followed by an expanded pattern and then 5 waves down in Minute degree. The five waves down in Minute degree started at the beginning of 2015 and lasted a bit under a year.

Since the 2016 bullish start, I had trouble figuring the 5 waves as it also looks like another zigzag. Then again in early, 2018 Walmart’s stock imploded followed by yet another set of 5 waves looking like an impulse, which is labeled “A” wave in Minute degree.

From the late 2018 bottom WMT started up again but this time the C5 wave has started out with small overlapping waves. Walmart could break to new record highs but it can remain very short when we are so close to a triple top.

One worst case scenario is that the 2018 peak is the real top and we are heading up a “B” wave in Intermediate degree. I’m sure there are not daily limits with most single stocks so any “C” wave crash can move very fast and violent.

Walmart has already warned that prices could go up and shoppers will be the first to see if the shelves don’t get filled or you can’t find coffee on sale anymore.

I have no Gold/WMT ratio database setup as I have to do some back checking to get those numbers. At a 12.6:1 ratio today I’m assuming that this is an expensive Gold/WMT ratio.

 

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Mini DOW Intraday Bullish Moves Update

So far this market is still going in the direction I was anticipating but we could be in another correction.  At 26,050 we are running into previous 4th wave highs, that could act like a brick wall.

Blasting past resistance sure would help to keep my bottom 4th wave count alive a little bit longer.  For now, it looks like a diagonal run is forming as this wave 3  looks like another zigzag to me at this intraday scale.

Every 5 waves in the zigzag alternates in quality, one set (A5) can be smooth without any visible waves, while the second 5 wave set (B5), has more obvious subdivisions.

If the bigger bullish picture is alive then this run could last the rest of May, but if this run is just a short term bear market rally, then we would be lucky to last into next week.

The moving averages offer no special insight at this time but the DOW came to a halt at the 50-Day MA line.

Of course, gold reacted to the bullish markets by crashing.

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Cotton Loves The Sun: Weekly Chart Review!

Without a doubt, cotton futures have one of the most violent and choppy patterns I have ever dealt with, and it’s been doing that as far back as I have found charts for.

What I see is that cotton prices loved the upswing of the solar cycle, but cotton prices sure didn’t like the downswing of solar cycle 24. The 2011 peak in cotton prices matches the first peak of solar cycle 24 after which its price crashed and still hasn’t recovered, except for small bear market rallies.

The impending end of solar cycle 24 is drawing cotton prices down and we could end up getting another Primary degree zigzag. Our present bearish cotton wave count still needs lots of work, but a new record low should happen.

I have not had to change wave 3 in Cycle degree for any reason, which is a good thing.  Since the 2001 bottom cotton produced a great looking inverted zigzag. That’s what diagonal wave structures are all about and cotton shows us one zigzag about 10 years long.

I’m sure that this bear is going to continue for the next 1-2 years, but we want to wake up to cotton before solar cycle 25 starts.

BAL which is an ETF/ETN could be used to track cotton prices and it’s just as violent as the futures charts are, so be warned.

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Gold Intraday Review: Correction or Return of the Golden Bear?

Gold has made some wild moves since its peak on February, 20 at the $1346 price level. I also dropped the degree level down by one degree which might not last too long as I do have the potential for a triangle to play out as well.

Commercials are still net short by a large amount and last week they added to their bearish outlook when they removed longs and added short positions at the same time.

What I’m looking for is a zigzag type of a move which should take us to new bearish lows. If that happens then my mythical triangle may also become more visible, which suggests a new record high can happen.

You can ignore that huge spike to the upside, as it only shows up in a bar style setting but it doesn’t show up when I switch to line type settings.  False spikes do happen and since the April peak, several other false spikes were also created, which I didn’t count.

The worst that happens with a spike is that your account provider scopes in a huge amount of stop-loss orders from the bears.

It used to happen to me when I was trading the mini gold contract as the liquidity was extremely low and spikes were pretty normal.

I know that the gold bulls are looking for investors to charge into gold as a safe-haven but those are emotional decisions which never last that long.

Gold has been in a bearish mood since the 2011 peak and unless you know how bullish they were at that peak we can make the wrong decisions thinking a standard  5 wave bull market has happened.

That 2011 peak was a 30-year ± 1 year mania peak as wave 3 in Cycle degree. Not only that but gold also finished a huge Primary degree zigzag at the same time.

All commodities run under an idealized diagonal world that has been active since the Little Ice Age. That all changed during the Roaring 20s as stocks and commodities separated and went their separate paths.

 

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US Dollar Intraday Update

Markets can turn at the beginning, middle, or end of a month most of the time.  The USD had a bearish relapse this month but it looks like a corrective zigzag may have completed.

It also means that the USD can soar much higher.  The US dollar is in a bull market which started in 2008, but this bull market is also producing a large number of overlapping waves. which work best as diagonal waves.

The USD may not breakout and even give us another leg down but in the bigger picture, this US Dollar is in a bull market even though commercials are heavy net short.

Last week commercial net short positions had a ratio of 40:1, which I consider extreme. Having a bullish wave count with those conditions in place is like two cars playing “Chicken” on the freeway!  Last week the commercials added contracts to their long positions and took away 424 contracts from their short positions. This gives a clue that commercials had a bullish outlook last week!

It may be hard to realize but the USD has been in a major bull market since the 2008 bottom which I documented very well. The thing is the younger generation today has no clue how emotional that time period was.

Emotions of a herd only last for so long after which they disappear. It is the numbers and letters of the EWP that capture these emotions. You heard about the “Message in a Bottle”, well the EWP is all about “Emotions in a Bottle”.

Even with the trade war being in full swing, the USD keeps making bullish progress.

On the monthly charts, the golden cross has already happened, while on the weekly charts the moving averages are on the verge of creating another golden cross as well.  The moving averages are giving bullish signals so we have to see who wins by the end of this month.

The full moon is coming up this weekend, so that can produce a turning next week as well.

 

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DOW Mini Intraday Chart And Impending Rally

Yesterday the DOW E-Mini hit a bottom and then started to rally again.  This is a 45-minute chart but I also review the daily chart at the same time.

The possibility of a bigger counter rally is real if we just finished another expanded flat in Minor degree.

We also had an intraday double bottom at the 25,222 price level and we should know shortly if this is going to hold.  At the 26,000 price level, we would start to run into resistance, but if the DOW screams past the previous 4th wave top, then there would be a good chance of the DOW to head back up to the 27,000 price level.

That would be a violent bullish move, as all the “Protective Buy Stop” orders are above our present prices. This trade war is now the largest in US history, and it remains to be seen how effective it will become.

The April peak was well short of a new record high, and it had a funny pattern I didn’t like as well.  Those two things can always spark a surprise bullish move.

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S&P 500 Mini Intraday

Market activity during night hours may be dominated by traders from around the world as local investors may just be waking up. The big boys who bring us new IPOs try to time them for the peak of a bullish cycle. Flooding the markets with IPO’s is a sign of a major top as stocks like LYFT, and UBER fail to make investors happy.

I’m sure we have started a 5 wave sequence and for now, I will be looking for a Minor degree 5 wave run.  Of course, any run like this doesn’t last that long as being out by just one degree will produce “Surprise” counter-rallies that would move outside of the two trend lines.

The goal is a potential “A” wave in Primary degree as that would also give us a  short term buy signal.  Any “B” wave could be very small but might drag out a few months or so.

Folks, we are heading into new territory and any corrective wave count I can come up with, may not last very long at all.

In the last year or so of solar cycles, markets tend to crash but a few times this has not happened like in 1996.

 

 

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Intraday DOW 30 Mini Crash Update

This is a 30-min intraday chart of the DOW and it looks like the bearish trend is continuing after the April top. The DOW top did not go to new record highs but ended up falling well short. For now, a slightly truncated or shortened 5th wave will have to do, until this 5 wave sequence has all played out.

I started using a Minor degree run which can be adjusted later on as reviews become necessary. Any Cycle degree top would need at least one “A” wave in Primary degree for part one of a Cycle degree correction.

I’m sure there are daily trading limits with most of these indicies, because if there were no limits many of these plunges would be far deeper and last longer much longer.

We are 90 years from the 1929 crash which makes it 3, 30-year cycles that have completed. Except for some unexpected counter rallies this bearish phase could last for all of May.

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Copper 1980-2011 Review

Since 1980 copper has made some very violent moves which are pretty common in the commodities world. This has been true since the Little Ice Age bottom which I count as wave 2 in Supercycle degree. The little ice age ended in the early 1800s and “Global Warming” started to take hold as the solar cycles picked up in sunspot activity.

In 2000 solar cycle 23 peak turned copper upside down and send it soaring until the first 2011 peak of solar cycle 24. In early 2011 copper prices imploded once again which produced a pattern that needs more time to play out.

The commercials are net long but not by that much so flipping a coin on short term direction may work just as well.  The early 2016 bottom produced what looks like a 5 wave impulse, but when you look at it with a daily chart they can count as a diagonal set of 5 waves.

Short term copper can produce more downside movement, but the electric car “Mania” has produce copper demand to a point where an electric car needs large amounts of copper to run.  1-2 Decades into the future I’m sure electric cars will go into the crushers and recycle all that copper they have been using.

There are no daily trading limits on most commodities so it is one of the main reasons why copper can make such extreme moves!

I think the impending start to solar cycle 25 could push copper prices to the upside which may still be 1-2 years away.

https://www.energyandcapital.com/report/energy-metals-outlook-2019/5056

The link above shows that copper is called an “Energy Metal” as well, so copper is required for everything “Green”.  Electric Fracking technology is coming so that alone can also increase the demand for copper.

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Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart Update

Even though the commercial hedgers are net long the Canadian Dollar by a 2:1 ratio, I will keep working our CAD with a bearish outlook.  When the Canadian dollar hit its peak in 2011 its price was repelled to the downside with the first peak in solar cycle 24. Many other commodities also imploded notably all gold related assets.

This provided the push to the 2016 bottom, after which the CAD exploded violently. Not just once but twice with the same looking pattern.

This all can be taken as a bullish sign, but I see an inverted zigzag which has not completed. From the 2017 peak, the CAD has declined with overlapping waves, which helps in thinking we are in a 5th wave decline.

To help confirm that the CAD is still in a bear market rally, the 73 cent price level will not hold, and at best we will get a huge double bottom at the 68 cent price level.  This may take until late 2020 to play out but by then we could see the arrival of solar cycle 25.

The world is in a war against the use of fossil fuels, the likes we have never experienced before. In the last 2-3 years, the language has changed to the “War On Climate Change”. Global warming wording has disappeared from mainstream media headlines, replaced by just “Climate Change”.

The world is all in a panic to stop the climate from changing, which is actually a war on our sun!  Good luck with that folks, as I have never seen anyone win betting against the sun.

We may still get a bullish push with the CAD but in the near term, support will not hold.

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Quick Facebook Review

I have no love for anything related to Facebook even though the majority have been pushing the stock higher. FB has now started to back off in price gains as the problems with FB are too many to address.

If it wasn’t for all the GAPs in the FB chart I would not post anything, but this chart looks like Swiss Cheese with any GAP always having a 90% chance of getting filled.  The July 2018 GAP might never get closed no matter how much the Facebook bulls wish for it to happen.

In November/December 2018 we had a small double bottom followed by a big bounce that may all be just a big bear market rally.  In order for this 2019 rally to be part of a bear market rally then eventually, FB has to crash below the 2018 low at the $123 price level.

I don’t have much of a Gold/FB ratio database set up but today we are sitting at about 6.84:1.

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SP500 Decline Update

At this time the SP500 produced a 7 month double top before it started to decline.  So far the SP500 is forming the best and when this impending 5 wave decline moves dramatically out of character then I will look at building my alternate wave counts. I don’t think we are near any Minor degree move just yet,  but if it lasts all of May, I would consider that pretty lucky.

We are looking at a possible Cycle degree correction which will take longer and a few more years to play out.

All this bearish market action based on a tweet from President Trump! How does an ordinary person compete with people that are trying to manipulate the markets?

Over 1.5 Trillion dollars were wiped off the books on President Trump’s tweets and it seems it’s not stopping anytime soon.

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