Palladium Daily Chart Review

Palladium has been on one crazy bullish ride, but I think another top is in at the $1556 price level reached on Feb 26, 2019.  Checking the commercial hedger’s positions they have a very healthy net short position with a ratio of about 3.57:1.

The speculators have gone the opposite direction as they are net long by a ratio of 4.17:1 They will be the ones to panic first once this palladium bear market shows itself.

In the past palladium has made very long and steep crashes so it sure can happen again, especially if the Cycle degree wave 3 has also completed.

The 4th wave bottom I do show is only a Minor degree bottom at about the $834 price level.  At best that may offer temporary support but a move below $500 would not surprise me.

I also looked at where the Death Cross might be and at this point where not anywhere near a Death Cross on any of the 3 time scales I normally use.

On the intraday 90 minute scale its another story, as palladium just crossed the 200-day MA line.

 

 

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Gold: Weekly Chart Impending Death Cross Review

I look at two sets of COT reports and this chart shows that the commercial hedgers have a very bearish outlook. Of course, the speculators are doing the exact opposite as they are chasing the gold bull market that many believe we are in.   When I see such a bearish position as the COT report above I’m not going to spend my time looking for a bull market, that may never come.

Between the silver chart and this gold weekly chart, we can see a huge difference.  Since the 2016 July, peak gold has a very bullish slant so wave analysts will show a bullish wave count, most of the time.  Silver and the majority of gold stock related ETFs do not confirm gold’s pattern as most of them are pointing down, not up like gold.

At present we have 3 major gold prices that if cross will make or break another bull gold market myth.  $1160, $1120 and $1050 will all be critical price levels, besides $1200 being a psychological number as well.  For now, gold is still under the control of a Golden Cross but will be set to change if gold keeps crashing.

With a monthly chart, the 200-day MA is down at the $1000 price level, while on a daily chart the 200-day MA is at $1240.

No wave count is written in stone but when the bullish leg that started in August 2018 retraces about $96 we could be ready for a reversal. We could get a 60-70% retracement as well but we better see a stunning correction like pattern when it completes.

Any price below that $1160 bottom will confirm that at least one leg of it was just a bear market rally.  Bullish and bearish moves can last for an entire month with March being a very popular turning month. It’s a seasonal thing as well, as people become more active in March when we start to get out of the deep freeze we’ve had this year.

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Silver: Crash, Death Cross Weekly Chart Update!

This COT report displays the Commercial bearish positions without having to think too much about it. Last weeks report they added to their bearish outlook so looking for a bullish wave count would be an exercise in futility.  Even if they shifted to a neutral position it would be better than what we have right now.

With this weekly chart, silver is still under the influence of a Death Cross and silver would have to make a big price jump for this Death Cross to become a Golden Cross.  Good luck with that as when we look at silver with a daily chart, we can see a big gap still open to the downside.

By $14.600 this gap will be closed and could offer support,  at least in the short term.  This is also where a bullish correction could take place, but if silver dips below the bottom trendline at $13.882, then the entire phase since the 2016 bottom will be classified as just another bear market rally from a Cycle degree perspective.

How many fake bull markets has silver had since the 2011 top? Add them all up and we still have one ugly bear market in progress.

I like the wedge I see but I never trust that the flat bottom will hold anything when as this chart can still plunge slice right through the bottom support line.

 

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