Palladium has been on one crazy bullish ride, but I think another top is in at the $1556 price level reached on Feb 26, 2019. Checking the commercial hedger’s positions they have a very healthy net short position with a ratio of about 3.57:1.
The speculators have gone the opposite direction as they are net long by a ratio of 4.17:1 They will be the ones to panic first once this palladium bear market shows itself.
In the past palladium has made very long and steep crashes so it sure can happen again, especially if the Cycle degree wave 3 has also completed.
The 4th wave bottom I do show is only a Minor degree bottom at about the $834 price level. At best that may offer temporary support but a move below $500 would not surprise me.
I also looked at where the Death Cross might be and at this point where not anywhere near a Death Cross on any of the 3 time scales I normally use.
On the intraday 90 minute scale its another story, as palladium just crossed the 200-day MA line.