Several wave counts I was working on have now started to break down and no longer fit. This always calls for a review and at this time the obvious move is my Cycle degree wave 3 August 2018 peak. The December 2018 bottom and our present rally display more and impulse wave than a counter rally wave. Many rallies in the past also showed 5 waves up but ended up getting completely retraced.
The Nasdaq is still under a Death Cross and now has run up against the 200-day MA line. If this trend is going to continue then at least the 200-day MA can offer some resistance, but a bear market rally can completely retrace this entire bullish phase. Only time will tell but the tech is taking a beating around the world as its being used to brainwash all of us. Our smartphones have already turned us into digital zombies and governments use it to spy on everybody!
The recent attacks on the Australian parliament are just small examples of how tech is being used to try and control us. Every democratic government is coming under attack and Canada is no exception.
If you think I’m paranoid, I have a reason to be since my Facebook account got hacked last year. How many times have you heard about a Bitcoin robbery and hacked accounts with hundreds of millions gone missing? As you walk the street or are just shopping, look up to the nearest cam and wave, as we are constantly being spied on. Soon when you are caught doing something illegal they can fine you, and steal the fine out of your account by the time you cross the street.
All this may sound crazy but I’m reading about that stuff all the time. We haven’t even touched social media as it is the biggest spreader of false news today. The point is that tech comes in cycles and a bearish cycle is on its way.
The expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio topped out at 6.38:1 and today this ratio stands at 5.25:1. We have a long way to go before the Nasdaq becomes cheap again when compared to gold. Short term the markets can head higher but there are large amounts of protective sell stops below all present prices.
If I was a conventional wave analyst like the majority I would turn this into a bullish wave count with little effort. Easy wave counting is for suckers that have nothing better to do but count every little micro mini wave structure which we need an electron scanning microscope to see. Most all my wave counts that I’m after are three-degree levels below Cycle degree and three-degree levels above Cycle degree. Besides that “All” commodities run with idealized diagonal patterns that few wave analysts use.
The bull market from 1999 to the 2008 peak is a prime example of how forcing a 3 wave bull market into a 5 wave bull market can keep us chasing our tails for decades. Any crude oil wave counts only started in 1850 which is close to the Grand Supercycle degree wave 1-2. Before 1850 the world ran on whale oil until they were hunted to extinction. The majority do not realize that without this energy source our present world could have never been built.
In a few years time, you will never even see these intraday waves and we will never know if an expanded pattern actually happened. Besides that, all the Miniscule wave counting is worthless if we can’t see a big crash or big bull market coming. They say you can’t time the markets and to some extent they are right, but any investment is only as good as it’s timing. The 2016 low was another prime example as analysts were forecasting that lower oil prices were still to come. Yet crude oil bottomed at about the $28 price level and then started to soar. Next thing we know investors started to jump on the oil bandwagon as $100 oil forecasts started to become popular again.
I use the gold ratio frequently which gives strong hints when some asset class is too expensive or is to cheap when compared to the cash price of gold. The cheap ratio in 2016 hit 44:1 which is the most extreme ratio that I have ever recorded. I was bullish before oil hit a bottom until this ratio started to shift again. The magic expensive ratio number in the past hit 17:1 twice and oil turned and crashed each time. Today, and since January 2019, this ratio has been averaging just below 24:1. This April contract is sitting at 23.81:1 and for 2019 seems to be hitting the 24:1 Gold/Oil ratio brick wall.
As I post, oil is still heading higher just above the Fibonacci $55 price level and at the very least we should get a strong correction. Oil is still under the sign of the Death Cross but found support at the 50-day MA for now. All it takes is some fake fundamental news to get published and all these bullish traders can turn into instant bears. The world is changing folks, where false news or propaganda and Artificial Intelligence (AI) brainwashing is becoming normal. What the movie “1984” showed us would be a Sunday picnic compared to what is already happening.