Gold Intraday Peak Update!

Last month gold has finally decided to back off in its price surge to $1325. If this so-called bull market in gold is real then a strong correction has to complete well before the $1160 price bottom. That’s a lot of price distance gold has to cover, which the majority of participants don’t expect. Banks are up to their usual tricks and have been buying gold in 2018.  The problem with banks buying and selling gold is they always buy high and then sell low at bear market bottoms. Back in 1998-2000, they were selling gold as fast as they could with countries unloading their gold stashes as well. In 1999 gold was considered an ancient relic, close to junk status.

As fast and far that gold can soar, it can crash even faster and deeper. We could see a correction, but don’t get excited as even a zigzag decline can crash to new lows if this bullish phase is just a big bear rally. Fear could engulf many asset classes where there is no place to hide as stock markets and gold crash at the same time.  Sure, I can be wrong and it will be important to recognize a correction when it’s going to finish.

I believe the 2011 peak was a 30-year mania peak in Cycle degree wave 3. Any Cycle degree bear market in gold does not end in just 8 or 10 years, as the bear market in gold during the 1990’s last 20 years.

Since the government shutdown, the first COT report was published last Friday. The way things are going the government could shut down again, with no COT reports being produced.

When I first saw the report I noticed a very large shift to the bearish side, with about 5-6 weeks backlogged data being published.

 

Commercials added 33,486 short positions and took away 2058 long positions, for a combined total of 35,544 contracts totaling just over 3.5 million Troy ounces.  Now, look over to the NON-Commercial side (Speculators).  We can see they did the exact opposite, chasing this gold bullish phase.  The problem is that both parties can’t be right!  The mass media always talk about what the speculators are doing and ignore all commercial hedgers action. From my perspective, the commercial hedgers have the best track record and ignoring them usually brings pain and suffering onto the bulls that think a trend can never end. What the COT report is telling me is that no super gold bull will start to soar anytime soon.

There is no corrective price bottom I want to use right now, as a 60%-70% net crash can happen. The $1200 price level is a gold psychological price level so if and when the gold price ever hits that area again it could put up a big fight!

Silver has a lot less distance to fall before it resumes the big bear market again.  Silver only has to fall below $14 and then below $13.50 and it would be back into its bear market.

Hits: 6

Natural Gas Weekly Chart Crash Update

I’ve made a few changes to my Wave count but the chances of the bullish phase that started in 2016 could be a false bull market or bear market rally. To help confirm that, Natural Gas charts must retrace the “Entire” bullish phase.  The $2.50 price level would be normal support but that has a slim chance of holding.

Gaps opened up but were also closed pretty quick. At the $3.00 price level, we have another open gap that would get closed on a potential 4 wave rally in Minor degree.

Commercials hedgers are still net short and I would like to see them switch before I turn bullish on NG again. You would figure due to the Great Arctic Vortex, natural gas price would be soaring?  In 2014 Natural Gas matched the secondary peak of solar cycle #24, after which it resumed its bearish move. NG also repelled from the 2011 solar cycle peak.  A few more years to go, as the start of solar cycle #25 would work like a magnet, drawing prices to it.  Once solar cycle #25 starts, natural gas prices could be propelled to the upside for years.

The Arctic Vortex has nothing to do with the amount of CO2 in our atmosphere because the amount of CO2 forcing (leverage) has no numbers they can measure.

Yes, we could end up with another little ice age, and the alarmists will still be calling it global warming. Low sunspot activity is a most likely cause of the Vortex.

This chart of the solar cycle decline includes the January numbers where we can see sunspot activity has increased. 61% of 2018 was spotless, which may not yet be a record. The record low spot count for 2008 was 73% which may get hit again.

I’m expecting solar cycle #24 to come to an end, and many good science sites will report and track the turning which may be a few years away.

 

 

Hits: 23