So far oil has been having a very bullish January which started in December 2018. This February crude oil chart has now developed a very nice vertical spike to the upside. This is usually a setup for correction or the end of an entire bullish move. A correction and then a leg higher would add a 5th wave to this bullish phase but then oil is facing stiff resistance near the $55 price level. I’m biased to Fibonacci numbers and we are facing the 50-day MA which will also produce resistance. We have a long way to go with price and time before any Death Cross can happen.
We had a Gold/Oil ratio low of just under 30:1, but with this present rally kicking in we are not at a 25.17:1 ratio. Readings of 17:1 has caused an oil price crash several times already. We may never reach any 17:1 ratio this time, but gold/oil ratios could hit a brick wall just the same. The ratio could stall which I can’t see unless I check it several times per week. During November 2018 I had about 14 calculations.
Commercial traders are still net long with the government COT report being delayed due to the government shutdown. It’s kind of ironic when the government is shut down and the stock markets still go up. I’m still bullish on oil but I sure would not take a bullish position when the spike is visible.
Since the October 8th low T-Bonds have been on a wild bullish ride that is now going through a 4th wave correction in Minute degree. The Oct 8th low is a 4th wave low in Intermediate degree.
T-Bonds have been in a bull market since 1981 and show no signs of a major reversal just yet. I’m sure we may see a “Bond War” in the future where several other countries dump US treasuries in an effort to kill the US dollar. From 1998 to 2000 T-Bonds imploded in a very fast move that resembles a crash. Since 2000 T-Bonds have been in a bullish phase that defies description as it is full of choppy waves which work best as diagonal wave structures.
T-Bonds are the only asset class that is in an SC degree bull market and if we are lucky any new record high could be pointing us to a Cycle degree wave 1 peak. This will not happen until all 5 waves in Minor degree have fully developed.
Tuesday’s Market Vane Report showed a high of 53% bulls present. That’s a far cry from the 83% 24-month reading we did come from.
The commercial traders still have healthy net long positions across many of the different maturity years. As I post T-Bonds are still acting bearish, but when it turns we should see another leg up.
At the 158 price level, T-Bonds will face some stiff resistance, which should also produce another correction.