Since the August 2018 bottom of $1160, gold started to make its present-day run. This came close to $1300 with a total run length of about $140. In the last day or so gold has started to retreat a bit. This run was choppy as waves overlapped and destroyed any true impulse we may have had. The gold bulls are confident that gold will still travel much further, but they need for gold to break out above the $1400 price level just to confirm that gold is still in a bull market. The only way I can see that gold will continue is if the $1160 bottom was a “B” wave in Intermediate degree. The COT reports are old as the government shut down has not produced any reports since December 20, 2018.
This diagonal set of 5 waves has to produce a “Correction”, in order for gold to produce two more legs up. How deep this correction can go, can always fall back to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. Of course where this previous 4th wave of one lesser degree actually is, is just an opinion at best. Folks, gold can crash in a 60%-70% net move that could send gold back down to the $1200 price level. $1200 is a psychological number and if gold dropped down below $1200 the gold bugs would start to get pretty agitated.
We are still in the Death Cross zone with this daily chart, and gold would have to keep soaring in order for the Golden Cross to become real. On A weekly chart, gold is now well above both MA lines with the 200-day MA support being at $1234. Sure gold stocks have moved up as well but, they sure are acting like they don’t care about the gold price surge. We have one gap open below present prices, which should get closed once gold retraces below $1270.
This entire move could still be a bear market rally and a complete retracement of the $1160 price level would have to happen. What the majority don’t understand is that the 2011 peak in the gold price was a gold and silver price mania/bubble that only comes along once every 30 years or so. Gold peaks of 1920, 1950, 1980 and 2011 follow Cycle and Primary degree moves, with the next big top being closer to 2041 when Cycle degree wave 5 is also due.
Those that did not pay attention or record all the mania readings during 2010-2011, will think we are in a normal gold correction and a new leg up is in the “Bag”, so to speak.
Elliott Wave International (EWI) is very good at recording these moods and I will insert their gold chart below.