Daily Archives: January 4, 2019

Silver Daily Chart Review

When we look at the last 2 years we can see the angle of the pattern sloping down.  This is nothing like what gold has done as gold has a much more bullish angle to it. It’s gold that is brainwashing us while silver only saw it’s a new record low in November of 2018. That would make the silver bull market just about 6 weeks old.  The record low in silver sure looks like an expanded pattern, so technically we could see silvers retrace its entire bullish move.

The bullish side of silver has already started to back off, so now we wait and see how deep any correction may take us.  “Correction” is a loose term as the silver decline has to make a pattern that can show a decent counter-rally in the next month or so. Vertical moves like this cannot be maintained, especially if this also was a run to safe-haven. Fear moves rarely last that long as they can crash faster than they went up!   The huge gap that opened up is a big hint that silver could crash to close off this gap which could take all of January to happen.

This Friday we get new government COT reports but Decembers report had commercials still building short positions. I follow two sites as they both have a bit of difference but it shows the net short positions in a more visual.

The commercial bearish outlook sure doesn’t inspire me to get all warm and fuzzy about a bull market with no end!  Since 2018, the commercial hedgers only have had net long positions 6 times.

Silver has also sliced through the 200-day MA which it has done many times before, after which silver crashed each time. The 50-day MA is at the $14.50 price level and if the bearish move returns then the 50-day MA will provide little support. Any price drop below $13.88 would definitely confirm this bullish phase as one giant bull market fake or bear market rally. Any bear market rally always retraces back to the point of origin and the only difference is the degree. If the majority can get fooled with just a Minute degree bullish phase, then the larger degree bear market rallies can easily trap the bulls.

 

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Apple Crash Update

At this time my expanded top for Apple is a pattern I have to keep using until it no longer works. On the downward slope, I’m dealing with diagonal waves.  Recently support for Apple failed but it failed with a big gap still open. From here on things can go wild if we run into a short 5th wave in Minute degree. This important gap also happened close to the Fibonacci number $144. Between $130-$120 we have another huge open gap that could get closed on this run. The wave count layout might take a month or so, but then Apple should rally along with the general markets.

Smart analysts are still shaking their heads why Warren Buffet was buying AAPL stock at world record highs. Warren Buffet is now deep underwater with his Apple shares and it will be interesting to hear if he starts to sell any of his Apple holdings.

With this huge price chop, one would figure that the Gold/Apple ratio has improved. At 9.13:1 it has, but not nearly enough to get excited about. One extreme “cheap” Gold/Apple ratio is 21:1. I don’t think we will see the 21:1 ratio on this trip but I sure would like to see more than this recent 9.13:1 ratio we now have.

 

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