Daily Archives: December 9, 2018

Idealized Submillennium Degree Wave 3 Review

Since about 2013, I became convinced that the basic Elliott Wave Principle is just one big impulse. The idealized chart above has a wave zero start with the ending of the Little Ice Age. Yes, global cooling killed the Medieval warm period but picking an exact date is impossible as the LIA took a few hundred years along the bottom. 1500-1800 could have been the worst of it as millions of people succumbed to malnutrition and disease. 

During that time British markets carried on into North America as trade flourished. I have another idealized chart made for commodities as this chart changed into an Impulse during the Roaring 1920s.

The markets in the real world are never this steep, but it’s one of the ways to fit it on a large format paper 24 inches wide. I work connecting all Cycle degree points together first, and the arrow points to the January Cycle degree peak.

Idealized charts work like blueprints and when we try to build the Elliott Wave Tower Of Babel, without looking at the blueprints, then we are guaranteed that any wave count will always fool us and the Elliott Wave Tower Of Babel will come falling down.

When we switch the DJIA to linear settings it sure can look like the Idealized chart. If we compare the 2000 peak with modern day wave counting methods, then the majority of all wave analysts out today are a “Minimum”  of 4-degree levels higher than what my wave counts are. 



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TSLA Defying Gravity?

Tesla has been defying gravity far too long. It seems to be building a very flat top squeezed by a rising bottom which looks like a wedge to me.  Of course, if you are the bullish person you’re not going to be looking for any bearish signals. TSLA has defied the bears as well, but Elon Musk made the bear’s life miserable during the entire time. 

I have an open or uncapped 5th wave so technically I don’t know what wave count is next.

I do, but the only reason this 5th wave is uncapped is that I had no more editing room. I believe that TSLA has or still has to hit a Cycle degree wave 3 peak but I need more evidence in the short-term to confirm it. Tesla is all about commodities, so it stands to reason for all the choppy wave structures. In the future, I will re-work the last 2-3 years in different ways to eliminate any potential expanded top. No expanded top can mean a single zigzag while an expanded top is instantly a flat.

4 or 5 times Tesla tried to breakout and push higher, bit so far it has failed.

My Gold/TSLA database is not that large, as I have to build it from scratch. Today this ratio sits at 3.48:1 which is extreme when we use gold as money.  Most of 2018 the Gold/TSLA has been averaging between 3-5:1 which looks like TSLA has been hitting a ratio brick wall.

The cheap range of the Gold/TSLA ratio is between 60-70:1 so we have a longway to go before TSLA becomes cheap again.

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