This is just a quick update as this T-Bond chart is off and running on another bullish phase that should produce a new record high in an ongoing 37 year bull market. This bull market will not end folks as it could be on a Supercycle degree wave 3 that is far from finished. Heck if we’re lucky a wave 1 in Cycle degree is still ahead of us. Checking the T-Bonds and commercial traders positions show they are mostly all net long. This helps me to turn bullish on these T-Bond Charts. Even today we had a small spike develop, which should turn into another correction.
Yesterday Dec 5, 2018, palladium spiked to the upside and then instantly reversed. I was anticipating such a move as palladium finished a new world record high at about the $1245 price level. This is only about an $8 difference from the gold price. I believe traders are set up in another bull trap and they will panic to try and get out. You can bet that protective sells stops are piling up below the entire length of this 5th wave. Also, computer trading programs can kick in at any time.
The commercials were net short by a good margin (3.68:1) which eventually will kill any bull market. The last 5th wave in Minor degree works well as a diagonal, which is more like a joke as the entire bull market in palladium were all diagonal wave structures.
A Cycle degree wave 3 top will produce a big bear market that at this point in time, could turn into a great looking zigzag. From here on some intraday wave counting would need to be done which I do with my finger pointing at my screen. (Air Wave Counting) Also after a sufficient decline, I can print out a 90 min intraday chart and take my sweet time looking at the entire wave structure.
Since the January 2018 peak a Death Cross formed followed by a Golden Cross, so the next crossing should be another Death Cross which has a way to go before that happens. This is not going to be little correction folks, so don’t get caught in some wishful bull market that will not arrive.
The only time we may get a buy signal is when we arrive at a Primary degree “A” wave. Even a Minor degree “A” wave bottom is pretty dangerous, with an Intermediate degree “A” wave bottom only being a bit better.
I love to make this DJIA index using a linear setting, as it shows how wild the bull market has been since that 2009 bottom. If the younger readers think that it’s a good time to invest then they should figure out how deep this impending bear market is going to go. We are heading into a Cycle degree bear market that will not finish with a mear 20% correction! The general guideline is that markets do retrace to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.
How can that work when we have no real clue as to what degree level we are actually at. The 2016 bottom was only an Intermediate degree correction so the 2016 support level will not even get us close to the previous 4th wave. At the very least, this DJIA index has to dip into the 2007 peak, but most of the time the bottom of the markets go to the lower end of that scale, which would be closer to the 7000 price level.
I would bet that the majority of all wave counts you see out today, are a minimum of 2 degrees higher than what my wave counts are. They still think that the 1929 crash was a 4th wave crash in Supercycle degree. This makes the bull market from 1932 to 2018 a 5th wave extension!
It’s impossible for this to ever happen as there will never be multiple generations 5th wave extensions. In this case that would be a 5th wave extension lasting 86 years already! 5th waves may be technically strong but they usually are the weakest fundamentally. The bull market from 1932 should show diagonal wave structures which they don’t. It seems that wave analysts just love to talk SC and GSC degree bear markets but to be very blunt about this, we must get a very specific corrective pattern that contains a decline of 5 waves in Primary degree.
Since the 2000 peak, no wave analysts have ever confirmed 5 waves down in Primary degree, so it is mathematically impossible for the markets to be at an SC degree top already.
Supercycle degree wave 3 and GSC degree wave 3 are still far in our future. Of course, only the younger generations will run into that because the boomers are going to be out of the picture.
Flipping numbers and letters around is not an option for me as being out by one degree can mean be wrong forever.
Elliott wave is not what we think we are seeing, as it’s all about how well we can visualize the true idealized pattern. Any wave positions in the past that looks like a simple 4th wave triangle are the simple easy patterns we can see. They are also traps for the lazy wave counters that refuse to go back in history and look for wave 3 extensions.