On this daily chart, the Death Cross is still going to happen as the Nasdaq wanted nothing to do with the 50-day MA, and could not find support above the 200-day MA! If the big bearish trend is true, then no amount of jaw-boning will turn the tide, even with the COT report below showing a small net long position. The bears will show us if they are in-control by taking out my wave 1 position Minor degree which still could happen this month.
My last Gold/Nasdaq ratio calculation was in early September 2018 what at that time registered the most expensive ratio of 6.38:1. It takes 6.38 gold ounces to but just one unit of the Nasdaq which blows the old record of 4.94 gold ounces by a long shot. Cheap would be 1.18, so there is a long way to go before this Nasdaq becomes cheap again. The Gold/Nasdaq ratio has been hitting a brick wall a the 6:1 range, so that is a usually a big clue that this market is far too expensive to be a good long-term investment at this time.
This is only a very small net long position with this COT report, which is nothing to get excited about especially when this is one of the only long indices I have.
While many of the talking heads are bullish towards the stock market as the “Buy on the dip” battle cry, still seems to be a common theme. We are looking at a daily chart with the 50-day MA getting close to kissing the 200-day MA line, and when it does, it turns into a Death Cross. A Death Cross on a daily chart forecasts a bearish move that will devastate all those smart bulls that have been brainwashed to stay invested for the longer term. Maybe the younger investors can recoup years down the road, but if my boomer generation is still “invested” then they will never have the time to recoup any market losses. Many boomers lost their retirement investments with the 2008 crash. Even older Gen-X investors may not recover from this next bear market downturn.
When I switch this to a weekly chart setting, then the 200-day Death Cross is at the 1360 price level, so a wild ride is surely coming!
Just about all COT reports regarding the different indices, show commercials still having net short positions. I will not turn bullish on stocks until all their short positions start to reverse!
I Looked through the COT Reports and this Bloomberg report does “not” look good for the so-called commodity bull market that the talking heads keep telling us about. Commercial hedgers increased their net short positions by 11,964 contracts and removed 700 contracts from their long positions. This shows the hedgers closest to the industry having a very bearish outlook which will not change until these numbers start to shift the other way again.
When you look at the non-commercial reports they are net long by a wide margin. Both parties can’t be right and the great majority of the time the speculators always get into a trap of some type or another!
Even silver, gold, platinum, palladium, all showed increases in commercial short positions. None of the readings I looked at support a potential big bull market reversal in the works. All this just confirms the idea not to waste my time, chasing bullish wave counts at this time.
Copper was the exception, but that was not a big shift to long positions. Even the commercials in the USD COT report took some short positions away, but they still have a large net short position to fight with.