Daily Archives: October 18, 2018

VIX Monthly Chart 2007-2018 Review

 

When I look at this VIX monthly chart it is impossible to count each little wave as there are no impulse waves to count. VIX and any commodities belong in the diagonal world where all the Elliott Wave impulse rules are broken. This is how options also behave because the VIX is built on using SP500 options.  Each spike to the upside represented a “Buy” signal in stocks, but we are nowhere near that point at this time.

The VIX should eventually see that $90 peak again but not before any potential “A” wave in Primary degree arrives.  Any move above those  $50 spikes, would start to get us close. Any “B” wave top in the VIX would be a stock market buy signal.  Watching the VIX is about as exciting as watching paint dry, so not to many analysts even give the VIX any attention.

The VIX is an emotional indicator, which is a “fundamental indicator” which can be used for the EWP.

The commercial hedgers are still net long, but it is starting to shift.  When the commercials have built large net short VIX positions, then the end of the VIX bull run would be getting close.

That $9 base is huge so at some future extreme when the VIX hits $9, you know it’s high time to run to cash.

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Crude Oil 2012-2018 Weekly Chart Review

 

 

This is just a quick update for an alternate wave count that I have for this wild crude oil bull market that has been going since the 2016 bottom. 2 years and 10 months crude oil is in now in a downturn. No doubt about it crude oil was a wild ride, which topped on Oct 1, 2018, at about $76.90 with this December contract. The Gold/Oil ratio has been at an extreme with a 17.61:1 reading this morning. The 17:1 average reading lately is a far cry from the 44:1 ratio I recorded at 2016, $28 low.

Even then expert analysts were calling for $20 and even $10 oil still to come, as the world was in a huge world oil glut. Do you remember exactly what triggered oil to soar in a world glut? Nobody will give you a good answer as they don’t remember!  I knew at that time that the oil bottom was near just like it has done in every other major world oil glut we ever had!  2008 was also a world oil glut when crude oil hit about $34 and the ratio at that time was only 25:1. Markets do the exact opposite of what fundamentals always suggest, as fundamentals will always tell us the wrong things at the extremes.

We are at an extreme as commercials have a huge net short position, while the speculators have built a huge net long position. One group has to be wrong, and my bet it’s always the speculators that get into a trap.  My Tuesdays Market Vane report didn’t show any real extremes, but they sure do with RBOB gasoline and heating oils.

For now, a potential “D” wave could have finished. There is so little difference in mood between a bull market wave “1”, “B” and “D” wave that no expert can tell the difference.

In the long run, we should get a good corrective wave to show itself. Except for the “D” and “B” wave tops. Any wave 2 must not crash to a new record low.

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Silver Weekly Chart Update: Bull Or Bear?

 

One of the main reasons why silver is important to watch is because the talking heads ignore silver in the most part. You can find 100’s of gold stories before you will ever find a good silver news story. We are being swamped with gold news which is obvious that they are brainwashing us!  In the old days, they used to brainwash people with loudspeakers attached to the roof of a car or van.

Today, they brainwash us with the internet and social media. The gold analysts repeat or regurgitate the same data over and over telling us that gold is in a bull market. For the last 2 years or so the 50 and 200-day average lines have converged where they both are working as resistance lines. When silver takes out that $13.50 support price, instantly silver is back to it’s bigger bearish trend. Any obvious move of silver to a new downside would instantly and technically make any move from the 2015 bottom, a bear market rally.

Every bear market rally gets completely retraced back down to and below the point of origin. (late 2015)  Silver’s present rally is very choppy, so it’s also giving us a clue that a new low in silver should happen. If silver did break to the downside, you will see the media join in and silver news stories will pop up like tulips in the spring.

Even now silver would have to rally dramatically before a golden cross can happen again. The commercial hedgers are net long silver, but not by that much just yet. The speculators are far more bearish on silver as they are speculating that silver is going down. It’s the speculators that get into one trap or another, but it could take many more short positions, before we run into real extremes.

Analysts do not know that the 2011 silver peak was a 30-year mania cycle peak.  Most investors don’t take cycles seriously enough, especially the 30-year cycle. In the last 4-5 months I have made thousands of simple 30-year calculations, between 100’s of peaks and sometimes there is only a 1-year difference in 90 years! It’s very easy for any person to figure out exactly “where” in this 30-year cycle, we were born in.

I use 1920, 1950, 1980 and now 2011. The next 30-year cycle peak is Supercycle degree wave 3, by 2041!

 

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