Daily Archives: September 24, 2018

HDGE A Cycle Degree Bottom?

 

I’m not going to cover HDGE very often but will try and catch major turnings. Since I’m working 3-4 expanded patterns then HDGE should technically also contain an expanded pattern.  January 2018 was the real low and if we ignore that Cycle degree low our time forecasts will not work.

Take 1929 and add 89 years, we would get 2018, which are 3, 30-year cycles, short by one year! I like to keep time forecasts to within plus or minus 1-year parameters, all under the Cycle degree perspective. They flip numbers and letters around without regard to the time jumps they make on paper each time. SC degree wave 3 may not come until 2041, and GSC degree not until 2071. Those wave analysts who are at those degree levels already have warped into the future.

The EWP is true, “Garbage in” and “Garbage out” if our vision of the idealized form is different for every analyst. Let’s hope that the recent spike to the downside has some holding power in it, but every rally will meet resistance. Any resistance should melt in the face of the bearish herd that is coming.

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DJIA 2018 Cycle Degree Wave 3 Update

 

This is the CBOT Dow index which only updates during the day. The DJIA just recently broke out to new record highs, but only by the slimmest of margins. This fits the expanded top very well so until this market proves otherwise, I will remain as bearish as I ever have.  Sure it is next to impossiable to know exactly what day this may happen, but when it does it could be a very sharp decline initially.

This may not be obvious until the DOW crashes below the bottom wedge line, after which the bottom support prices at the 23,500 price level would be next to get hit. The 23,500 bottom my supply short-term support but jumping in on that dip will prove costly.  Lucky for wave analsyts that see this coming, but the majority of investors have no clue in what is going to hit them in the next 3 years!

We have a full moon today and only 5 trading days left in this third quarter, so shit can hit the fan when investors least expect it.

The entire 4th wave correction could take until 2022 to finish, which would be a deflationary crash. All the crashes since 2000 have taken a bit longer than the previous bear market, so a Cycle degree crash should be the longest in time.  Any “C” wave bottom that ends would get us to the stock market  Primary degree “A” wave, which should produce a Primary degree counter rally bullish phase! First the DJIA has to display 5 waves down in Minor degree, as gold should go up with 5 waves in Minor degree.

The DOW now shows 2 peaks which are very obviuous, but one peak belongs to the bullish side while the other already belongs to the bearish side!

Just like big bear market rallies, small counter rallies act the same way. Every bearish rally will completley retrace itself, so not until the impending decline starts to exhaust itself will it be safe to take a small bullish position.

The VIX is also getting excited as the COT commercial traders are clearly bullish in the VIX! On any of the US indices, the commercials are net short, so a big leg up in stocks is not what I see that is about to happen.

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Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart Cycle Degree Wave 3 Review

 

Since my last update I had to move my “C” wave in Minor degree up as I was still early by a week or so. The last peak was September, 3, 2018 at the 7720 price level. The real peak where I have to count from, was way back in January of 2018.  I’m sure we can hear the crying how I can’t count this way, but I see so many of these that ignoring them is not an option.  It is the “C” wave that gives it away, and we have to wait until the end of the month to see if the Nasdaq 7720 price level holds.

In a fit of madness stops or options get triggered which still could spike the Nasdaq higher, but I think the markets are running on fumes. Just scanning all the commercial COT report positions, there are vertualy no net long positions anywhere. Painting a bullish picture in stocks, will show you how the majority of wave analsyts can fall into the “mood trap” just like any other human does.

See all that empty space below our present high? What do you think is down there? Nothing but PUT options and protective sell stop orders, and when they get hit, all those bulls will turn into instant bears.

Stocks also follow the 30 year cycles but they sure can crash together like they did in 2008!

The “C” wave decline in Intermediate degree could be fairly steep but will only be obvious after it has formed.  The Nasdaq is the odd ball here as it seems to have pushed this “C” wave further than all the others. This will be last of the Internet bubbles in a long time, as the internet has matured and we don’t need to invent a new smart phone.

Readers have to make up their own minds if things are, “Different This Time”. Sure it’s different, but so was 1929, 1987, 2ooo, and 2007! Take our 2018 peak and count back 89 years and we get 1929! Ignoring the 30 year inflationary and deflationary cycles is not an option. T-Bonds have a 120-year cycle that started in 1981. (two 60-year Cycles).

We also have a rising wedge which every technical analsyt knows about, but only a few have the confidence to read them.

Once this turns then things can speed up, as panic will take control of the crowd, and no more record highs are produced. Add 3 years to our January peak and we coud see a bottom by 2022, so buckle up and watch all the bullish investment prices evaporate and disappear.

Gold, silver are pushing higher so money leaving stocks can flow into gold stocks in a flash, if the GDX holds it’s price level.

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