The COT report you see above is for the British Pound which shows that the commercials or hedgers have a massive long position, and then on the flip side, the bottom shows all the managed money positions or large speculators with a bearish opinion. Two massive opposing views in which way the market is going to go. I watch COT reports for over 18 years and I know that it is the hedge fund money speculators that “always”get into a trap of one type or another. Any wave analysts that is still bearish on the BP will have the wave positions trashed all the time.
It is futile to count bearish wave counts when the numbers are so skewed against the GBP bears.
This daily chart I added 100 bars, keeps the Primary degree “B” wave bottom in view. What follows the “B” wave bottom should be 5 waves up in Intermediate degree. 1985 was a pivotal year for many currencies that made a wave 4 bottom in Cycle degree. A short description would be, “it’s a bull market”!
Elliott Wave is much easier to figure out from the idealized vision, and I ask the same group of questions before every turning. Where am I, and what do I need to fill the entire “C” wave in Primary degree? In this case, 5 waves up in Intermediate degree is the only idealized pattern. When a pattern does not happen, then it should always force a complete review.
When was the last time that a wave analyst has shown you a complete Cycle degree update, with the 1985 bottom visible? 1985 ended in massive moves making those spikes stand out like a sore thumb. If I see 1985 ignored then those analysts have no clue where they are. Anyone can flip numbers and letters around inside a computer, but get them to count it out on a big monthly chart with pen and paper, they will not be able to do it.
The correcting phase may still be in effect so wave 2 would still have to be adjusted in the future.