Daily Archives: September 22, 2018

CRB Boom And Bust Cycles 1865-2011 Review

 

I have mentioned it many times that I use the 30-year commodities cycles to help forecast time into the future as well as into the past. You can let your thoughts run wild here but we can see, that being out by just 1 single degree can send you reeling as you warp drive on paper everytime we mark down a degree. 30-year, 60-year, 90-year and the 120-year cycles are all the same. A 600-year span would be 10, 60-year cycles, just short of a Fibonacci number 610. Commodities run on their own idealized pattern that is all based on diagonal wave structures, which are just zigzags connected to each other.

A shorter description might be that we take the ending diagonal 5th wave in our EWP book, and stretch it horizontally and print it on legal paper size. Some of the bear markets below have lasted 17-18 years before the next “C” wave leg would start.

From 1920, and what I have is the SC degree wave 1 peak, we can count forward 90 years and we get 2010, off by one year peaking in 2011. Take 2011 and ad yet another 90 years, we get 2101!

the year 2101 is Submillennium Degree wave 3. Adding only 30 years to the 2011 peak, we get 2041 as a potential year for SC degree wave three to end. I count gold out much the same way as I firmly believe that the 2011 peak was a 30-year mania cycle peak and not some correction in an ongoing bull market.

Since many commodities are in the CRB different pattern in the corrections also happen. The main thing is we can use the 2011 wave count (position) to establish a very strong base to count from into the future. Wave analysis is not about flipping numbers and letters around like they are chicken on the barbecue, as I just can’t change the 2011 wave position on a whim anymore!

If you still see many wave analysts change their 2011 location around, then they have no clue where they really are. Any wave 5 peaks, that you see on the net, that are not capped, instantly tells you that the wave analyst is lost.

Looking at all commodities from a Cycle degree perspective is not something I just dreamed up but was a sequential retreat from GSC degree, then down to SC degree, and for the last few years, it’s all done from a Cycle degree perspective.

Elliott Wave is not about counting what we see, but it’s all about what we are supposed to see if our vision of an idealized diagonal is real! Just because something goes sideways does not mean it’s an automatic 4th wave.

 

 

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SP500 Record Top Update.

 

 

Stocks seem to find no real top as records are still being broken. Investing in at the top of the biggest bubble in all of financial history, is very popular.  Investors seem to ignore all the fundamentals with a “who cares” approach.

The biggest and worst advice we are getting is, “Stay in for the long run”. At every major top like 1929-2000,2007, 2018 they always coach you to stay invested for the long term. Tell that to the investors that got wiped out during the 2008 crash, or the 1987 crash.

Stay invested and keep buying the dips, as this market has a long way to go, is the general advice. Only the very inexperienced can do that, but for the millions of boomers retiring it would be financial suicide to stay invested. 10,000 boomers are retiring every day for the next 19 years, so where is all the money going to come from that will push the markets to the extreme? The world has a Titanic anchor of debt hung around their necks and they will get thrown over-board the first time the SS SP500 springs a leak!

The expanded pattern I show, is not just on one index but we can find it in the top 3-5 indices. This expanded pattern would just be a lead into the bigger “A” wave bottom in Primary degree, that is sure to come.  Every wave analysts would be screaming to get out if they new how deadly this pattern actually is. We will know only when it hits, as something will set the herd of investors into a panic.

The VIX tells us that much already, because commercial traders are about as bullish with the VIX as you can imagine, while the speculators are in another bear trap with the VIX. When it changes then expect some violent moves in the VIX as we have seen that happen many times before.

As long as all the expert wave analysts don’t see this expanded pattern their wave counts will get trashed. If all wave analysts don’t see this crash coming then what good is all that wave counting? They sure could not hit the 2009 bottom as that was screwed up as well.

 

 

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