The Euro makes up about 59% of the US dollar index, and runs inversely to the USD all the time. It’s impossible for the US dollar to implode without the Euro going the opposite way. Short-term in the next year or so the Euro should rally which I think is a wave 2 rally. Last week many COT reports changed dramatically which is a sign that “shit” is about to hit the fan!
Sure the Euro can make some wild corrections but I will no longer be bearish on the Euro until I see the impending bullish phase start to get real tired! Bulls can only run so long and then they get tired and must rest. The Euro bear market is far from finished, so the next 5 waves up will end and then die again. On a weekly chart we are still in a Golden Cross position so that also helps make a strong bullish case. I hate to miss any 5 wave run in Minor degree, but GDX will provide the same type of a 5 wave move.
The COT reports are not ideal but COT positions in other inverse related futures do. The Euro will also join the Cycle degree 4th wave club, but it’s 4th wave peak was in April of 2008, along with oil.
In 1985 the Euro also hit a wave 3 bottom in Cycle degree. 1985 is a real popular year as it stands out like a sore thumb, so there can never be an argument. The only argument or disagreement you will find is between all the wave analysts trying figure out what wave position it really is. We can’t wait for them folks as I already have mapped it all under Cycle degree guidelines, and it’s the readers choice which he wants to waste his time with in following. SC, GSC, and Submillennium degree wave 3 markets are far into the future as that is what Cycle degree forecasting is all about.
What I see here is a diagonal set of 5 waves in Intermediate degree connected by zigzags. All commodities are connected in the same way, and require a completely different idealized pattern to go by. There is an extremely good chance that gold has already seen a bottom, then if this is true shouldn’t lumber prices soar as well? Crashing lumber prices also tell us where the housing market is going as demand for new homes is failing.
If the big bearish cycle in lumber is in effect then there should be no new record highs. We might get a wave 2 rally but if it turns choppy then more downside will come. It will be a long-term bearish trend that will change housing forever. 10,000 boomers are retiring every day for the next 19 years, so do you think that this is positive for the prices of SFD to keep going up? Maybe on Mars, but not on earth.
The more I look at this Barrick chart the closer I think it’s at a bottom. I counted the entire 5 wave decline as a near perfect impulse decline while other were far from being nice impulse waves. Moving the big “A” wave to the 2016 bottom sends us on about a 3 year time jump back into history. Jumping back in time also allows us to look forward and find a new location.
Barrick and other gold stock EFTs could soar as another “C” wave bullish phase is near. I’m no longer and have reversed my positions last Thursday. I do not give any investment advice as if I did, I’m sure you would lose money at it if you jump in with an emotional “All IN”. I post this stock as I think the decline we have been having is part of a correction and there is a good chance ABX could add a nice set of 5 waves in Minor degree, which are the prized target wave runs everyone should experience once. I have no clue what the options chain looks like, but If I miss this up I will try not to miss the ABX decline when it happens.
Once this starts it should take very little to start seeing a bullish pattern to develop. ABX is one of the biggest miners in the world, which is in the GDX ETF as well. So if I have GDX long positions I already would own a small part ABX .