Daily Archives: September 16, 2018

Gasoline Cycle Degree Update.

 

This gasoline futures chart is on a different wave pattern as it’s Cycle degree 4th wave bottom was in late 2008 not in 2016.  The British Pound is very much the same so it’s not an isolated rare pattern as the 2016 bottom would be a running type wave.  This doesn’t mean a very deep correction is coming as another leg up may still happen in the next few years. Even Brent hitting the $80 price level, may break-out to the upside again. This has taken far to long for a bear market rally, so that always forces me to look for a better fit. More and more commodities are seeing Cycle degree 4th wave lows,  and that should only increase in the next few years. By about 2022 many other stock indices will join the 4th wave Cycle degree club.

I keep track of all the completed 4th waves under a seperate page heading, so check that page as the Cycle degree 4th wave count is growing slowly!

In this case the huge gap we do have can also act as support, as prices also repell from gaps. I’m sure in the future that this monster gap in gasoline will close off, but that may be a Supercycle degree crash when it happens. Gasoline is just in a huge zigzag bull market and between the two sets of 5 waves virtually any pattern can develop.  I haven’t checked the weekly chart Death Cross but the 200-day MA could be support, as on a daily chart we could hit a Golden Cross. Even now the correction is not as impulsive as you would expect, so this can always crank up and add another leg to this insane bullish move.

We can also see a big H&S pattern, so if gasoline prices are still very bullish, then the right shoulder will not hold and a push higher should happen. In a bearish situation a H&S pattern like this would go to new record lows.

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Crude Oil Weekly Chart 2008-2016, 8 Year Bear Market Review!

 

Last week things changed as there is a 99.999% chance that gold has a bottom at the $1160 price level. This also forces me to make changes to my oil positions as it refuses to die, or correct at this time.  All commodaties are zigzags linked together which follow a completely different idealized wave structure than what stocks do. When we choose to ignore them, then our wave positions will never produce positions we can’t stay in for more than a day.

The biggest clue that crude oil is in a diagonal, are the 7 waves up from 1999 to the 2008 peak. (3 years before the gold peak) All experts call the bull market to 2008 as 5 waves up in Primary degree but I count 7 waves up, which means a diagonal wave structure is in progress.

We can only wait for so long before we have to throw in the towel and succumb to the oil bulls. I moved my oil wave 4 in Cycle degree to the 2016 bottom  and this would technically complete my 4th wave. Oil will enter my Cycle degree 4th wave club, and gasoline should as well once I update it.

If the wave 4 in Cycle degree is in then oil will produce another zigzag looking pattern, but that may not happen until gold hits it’s “B” wave peak. We can’t have a strong gold bullish move to the upside without the Gold/Oil ratio making a big move as well. The ratio stood at 44:1 at the 2016 bottom, and has now hit 17:1. This is an extreme but could also just produce a correction.

Even Brent crude may join my Cycle degree 4th wave club, and I will update the Brent crude wave positions when I can.

I will not trade any oil related asset classes as the gold market and ETFs is my trading world. If gold is going to lift-off then the oil price should react bullish as well. That would be something if gold continued its bullish return, as then the Gold/Oil ratio will not stay the same.

When we count from the crude oil 2008 peak, the 2016 bottom gave crude oil an 8-year bear market, which makes a much better Fibonacci fit.

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