Daily Archives: September 13, 2018

BP, British Pound Bull Market In Progress?

 

 

If you want to see an extreme COT report then this is a good one. The top section are the bullish contracts which are the commercials.  As soon as I saw this COT report, I knew my bearish outlook is not going to keep going.  

I will still need to work back to 1970, but our August, 15, 2018 low may be a Primary Degree low, and a potential 5 waves in Intermedeate degree have started!   This will take a long time to confirm as it’s not clear if the correction has completed. At this time I don’t rule anything out, as wave 2 crashes sure can act this way! If a bullish phase is on, then nothing will stop the BP from consistently pushing higher. The BP should have little problem in slicing the top trend line, but the bottom trend line may not hold.

When we consistently get higher lows, and good corrective waves in them, then those are all signs of a bull!

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XGD, Canadian Gold Stock Index 2011-2018 Review

 

I haven’t looked at this index much before, but it sure has some interesting features not present on all the other gold related ETFs and indices that I cover.  One notable pattern is how high XGD  soared compared to all others, and even hit the middle of my wave 1-2 counter rally. This is as far as I can push any 4th wave rally, which I have run into many times. Elliott wave rules from the book do not work in commodaties, as it is all about connecting zigzags at all the big degree levels as well.

When we look at the late 2013 and 2014 bottom wave, it contains a 3 wave decline, which I think is part of an expanded 4th wave.  XGD should still crash well below the late 2016 bottom as any zigzag in progress is not finished just yet. We need the “C” wave to show itself, and travel to new record lows, to confirm that the 3 year+ bullish phase was just a fake.

Just in case XGD never completley retraces itself, then I already have an alternate ready to go. Once this wave position does fail I think the “A” wave in Primary degree will get moved to the 2013 bottom. 2013 was a very special year and it still is, as we also produced a double bottom in 2015.

I have no real track record on the Gold/XGD ratio but I started one, which worked out to 3.78. It takes 3.78 gold ounces to buy one unit of XGD. That number should get smaller as the cheaper it gets, we need less ounces to buy XGD units.

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DJIA 1980-2018 Review

 

I made this chart up yesterday and started the count from 1980. From a Cycle degree perspective I need to see or use three degrees below any Cycle degree, otherwise I break the sequential chain. The EWP is not what we see, but is what we are supposed to see if we followed the blue prints or our perception of one. I know there are wave analysts out there that have detailed wave positions, but they have no real money behind their convictions. I can see the most elaborate work but if they miss a stock market crash, or worse yet miss an entire 10 year bull market.

If you see any expert wave counts that do not have every single set of 5 waves capped at all times, then that analysts is spelling it out clearly that he has no clue where he is! If you see a question mark or some “X” wave,  then they also don’t know where they are.

I’m sure not a single wave analysts can draw the simple 5 waves and an extended wave 3 if they were to be tested. (With no Book) If we can’t draw our 5 simple corrections and how they fit together, then how in the world do we know what we are supposed to be looking for.

Intraday wave counting is required for the day traders as I only need to know 3 degree levels below Cycle degree and three degree levels above Cycle degree.  SC, GSC, and Subillennium wave 3 are all ahead of us still many decades away.  There are 30 year cycles always in affect and we can count backwards from our present 2018 top. 89 years, 1 year less than three, 30-year cycles, is also a Fibonacci number. 2018 minus 89 years, gets us back to the 1929 stock market peak, and we all know what followed.

From 1929-1932 it was a three year crash and bear market, that contained a zigzag that stretched much longer than any zigzag ever shown in the EWP book.  If it happens once, it can happen again so now I count with super long “C” waves at the smallest degree level.

This chart is still well below the January peak so a potential expanded pattern is taking place. Even the SP500 which has traveled to new record highs is still part of the single expanded flat I’m tracking.  When it pops is never an exact science, but it sure will surprise all the investors when it does. There is a huge deflationary crash coming just like 1929 and 2007, and no asset class will go unscathed.  A market crash sending the DJIA back to 15,000 for starters would fit very well from my perspective.

I think late 2022 will be a major bottom, but after solar cycle #25 starts to crank up! It’s solar cycle #25 that will save the stock market, so if you have any bearish thoughts and bearish positions at that time your bearish view of the future will be destroyed.

Investing at a record bubble high has trapped the majority all the time. They always tell you to stay invested for the long term, just before markets crash 70-89%!

Needless to say, I’m very bearish on stocks but I also know that a huge bear market rally is going to kill the bears off again.

I will not be investing or trading in the general markets, as the gold sector is my speciality where I have enough experience with.

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