One more push to a new record high! Sure that can happen as we approach the $80 price level again. Of course the stories about oil going to $100 again all are starting to sound like a broken record stuck on “repeat”. Can a 4th wave rally surge this high and still be in a bear market rally? Of course it can, as it could even dip into my wave 1 bottom. Commodities play a different game and normal wave counting methods will never work. This is all part of a Cycle degree zigzag correction which has 3 parts to it.
It may seem like the 2015 bottom was part 3, but fooling the majority all the time is the job of the markets. When the Gold/Brent ratio is an eye-popping 15.10:1 then we are pushing the bounderies of being very expensive when priced against gold. In the long run I’m sure we will end up with another major world oil glut as recessions happen every 10 years or so. Any recession in the future would be over as soon as solar cycle #25 starts to break through.
When analysts are talking about buying on the dip in Facebook do not have a clue that the bull market in FB has finished, with that huge drop and open gap a mile wide. Not knowing when a bull market has ended or even care to learn how bubbles can end, will always lose when investing with the herd. I don’t know which gap is bigger, the one up top or the big gap below $34! Longer term it would not surprise me if FB eventually crashed down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. Many investors can’t think that far ahead as that is too much like work.
This crazy tech mania will crash and burn and the only real question is when a real bottom may arrive? That may not happen until late 2022 as stock markets around the world can crash 70% or more. 2022-90 years gets us back to 1932. 90 years are 3, 30 year cycles or 1 year off a Fibonacci 89. 89 is one of the most powerful Fibonacci numbers you don’t want to ignore. Most people do ignore all the even Fibonacci numbers, which I don’t
There is no way anyone can pick a ratio bottom, when nobody has a clue how big the correction is going to be in the first place. Facebook may end up like another Tulip Mania story never to rise again, where the top gap may never get closed! Just like the tech section imploded in 2000, 2008, we will get another bear market and recession just the same.
Years ending with a “2” have been very bullish turning years so 2022 will be a very important date to watch.
The Gold/FB ratio is sitting at 7.32:1 and it should expand as FB keeps on crashing. Cheap at one time was a Gold/FB ratio of 100:1, so we have a long way to go before FB becomes cheap again.