HEP is a Canadian ETF that says it is an income fund. I would have to do a lot more work to confirm that, as it doesn’t even have an options chain I can look at. It’s just one of those ETF’s that is only about $4 away from crashing through support. GOEX is another one. Not until all gold stock related ETFs have crashed to new lows that the majority might throw in the white towel!
Nobody has capitulated yet, which I think still needs to happen. It may take until early 2019 to bottom but then gold stocks could rally well into 2020. This run can move HEP up to the $65 range.
The Gold/Hep ratio sits at 63:1 and that should spread even further as this bearish phase continues. When this hits a real bottom, I may buy some token positions only, as I will work GDX and GDXJ the hardest.
The decline since the 2011 peak has been 5 diagonal waves, which I will not count over and over for readers entertainment. All my work only requires 3 lower degree levels, and Minor degree is my lowest. Minute degree wave counts are only good for day traders or for those that have no clue what the bigger trend actually is.
2011 was a gold/silver 30 year mania peak and it’s correction is far from over. By the end of this year we may be 1/3 of the way through it. Fast violent reversals will happen and if the planning is not fully underway now, you will not be prepared when the first “A” wave in Primary degree arrives.
A beautifull counter rally is happening but due to its vertical move, this rally can’t be maintained and must correct or even end this inverted zigzag. If the bears are in control of oil, then this little zigzag will get completley retraced. If this is correct then we will still see many of these bearish rallies develop during the rest of this year.
The commercial traders are about as bearish as you will ever see, while the speculators are in the biggest bull trap that you will ever see. This makes it next to impossible for crude oil to charge into some bullish phase that many analysts are still forecasting. Fundamentals will “always” tell us the wrong things at the extremes, especially when the experts all are thinking alike! When they all sound or think alike, then chances are good it’s an instant short bet!
I also have what I call my “Ratio Pool” which contains about 20 Gold/Ratios in the ETFs I track. Nobody I know of keeps a ratio group of this size, and only with face to face meetings can this be explained in detail.
There is a mathematical connection in ratios that will never break, but they swing from one extreme to another. I sample the Gold/Oil ratio 2-3 times per month, and my latest gold/Oil ratio has been at 17:1. This is already at an extreme as the Gold/Oil ratio has been hitting a brick wall for months already.
Even the Market Vane Report doesn’t confirm a huge bullish phase to come, even with hurricanes forcing a spike in the oil price. As soon as any storm passes the oil price will start to crash again.
I cannot stress it often enough, how important it is to “not” watch the gold price if you want to figure out where the gold price is going next! Silver and the gold stock ETFs is where the action is as they are the leaders. Silver only has less than 20 cents to make a complete reversal and soar, or it will be one of the first ETFs to cross to a new bear market record low. 2-3 other ETFs are catching up fast and we could end up with a small group creating new record lows. There is no way that silver can be in a bull market, and I think it is impossible for gold to remain high while silver crashes.
Once SLV just closes below $13 then that would confirm that silver was in a bear market rally. All the investors are getting fooled by an Intermediate degree bullish phase, so It will be pretty easy to fool the majority again, once SLV ends on a Primary degree “B” wave rally!
There is no bottom in sight just yet, as I look for bear traps to develop all the time. I have to see when the majority get into a bear trap, at the exact same time, that I catch my own bear trap! I can get out of any situation after about 15 minutes of work at night, and by the time I wake up all my orders have been executed.
Silver is far from a major bottom but look to the 2008 crash bottom as major support $8-$10. Silver has the same sideways pattern like gold, but this triangle is leaning over, which I call a running triangle. I never call them “truncations” as that would suggest an abnormal pattern. There is nothing abnormal about a running triangle.
When the headlines scream about silver not holding the $13 support price, chances are good that a trap is forming.