Daily Archives: September 10, 2018

Apple: Did Warren Buffett Push Apple To The Limit?

 

Maybe I’m the odd ball as I see Warren Buffett go out of his way to by into Apple stock at world record highs. Warren Buffett created his own bull market and the majority are falling into the same trap.  What does Apple do with all this free money?  They go out and blow it buying their own shares back at world record highs.  It see it as a complete waste of money given to them by the share holders. Sooner or later Warren Buffett will have to take a rest, and when he does this Apple stock will crash!  We now have another major AAPL stock peek and it has started to back off in the last few days. In the long run all asset classes are going to suffer a deflationary crash and Apple will not be exempt from this. You can pour over the fundamentals all you want, but fundamentals always tell us the wrong things at the extremes.

The Gold/Apple ratio speaks volumes if you know how to use it. A record expensive ratio has been at 7.29:1, this has now been blown out of the water and this morning this ratio stands at 5.48:1, which is the most expensive reading I have ever recorded with the Gold/Apple ratios.

We would have to get to 21.81:1 before it becomes cheap again.  We would need a bit bigger decline so it has no more time to hit another new record top in 2018!

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Canadian Dollar Weekly Chart Update

 

I see the trend with our Canadian dollar as still be down. Since the 2011 peak coincided with gold, the CAD bearish phase really took off. From the 2016 bottom we have what is nearly a perfect inverted zigzag, which are just bear market rallies. To confirm this the CAD must still completley retrace its entire move below the 2016 low. Commercials are already building up their net long positions but that can swing just as fast. Not until the hedge funds turn extremely bearish and commercials far more skewed, can I turn bullish on our Canadian dollar. Even the Market Vane report only shows about 50/50 bullish readings, which is not even close to being extreme at this time.

The CAD started a decline but it has been very choppy just like a diagonal wave structure in a 5th wave can be.  Even when the chart is still fairly high, our CAD can free fall the rest of the way to a new record low.

The Death Cross has already formed in the daily chart but is still a bit short from the Death Cross on this weekly chart! What has more power? COT numbers or another Death Cross. Hopefully we will find out more this fall, as I put my vote on a Death Cross having the real power!

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Euro Weekly Chart Bear Market Update.

 

The Euro is in the US dollar basket so when the US dollar is bullish the Euro will turn bearish. Sure we had a great run in 2017, and gold responded. The problem is, if the Euro is in a bear market rally, then a complete retracement of this bullish phase will happen. The hedge funds are still very bullish with the Euro, but the commercials are building up their short positions. This doesn’t get me all warm and fuzzy to call a super Euro bull market just because of the 2017 rally. There is an expanded pattern in this 4th wave, just like there is in the US dollar.

Even as other COT reports favored gold just recently, the Euro postions do not come close. The hedge funds have to switch to net short postions, while the commerials build up their long positions.

The Death Cross in the Euro daily chart has already happened, with the weekly chart Death Cross still to happen. Right now there is a toss-up if  Death Crosss have power over COT reports. I hope to have a better understanding of this by the end of the year. So far Death Cross over COT reports rule with the Euro!

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Nifty: Is It The Top?

 

I do have a strong following from India but I will not show every little move that might be good for simple day trading set-ups. I don’t think the Nifty can come out of the impending crash and bear market unscathed. If a new record high gets established again, it would surprise me a bit, but sooner or later all markets will start to tank. We need more downside, before we no longer have the time for a new record high in 2018 to establish itself.  We already have a small set of 5 waves forming, but we have to wait to see if other sets of 5 waves start to form.

I have no real track record of the Gold/Nifty ratio, as I would have todo some back checking to create some paramerters I can work with.  Today this ratio stands at 9.83:1, which means it takes 9.83 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the Nifty. This is already to the expensive side, but in the next few years we want to buy more units of  the Nifty with one ounce of gold.

The Nifty has also potentailly peaked at a Cycle degree wave 3 high, so a big long drawn-out bear market will happen. This bear market bottom may take until late 2022 to complete, which is 90 years from 1932. 90 years equals 3, 30 year cycles.  Solar Cycle #24 has to end, and solar cycle #25 will start and that is when I will turn very bullish.

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