Daily Archives: September 1, 2018

Gold Daily Chart Bear Market Review.

 

I think only watching the gold price is a big smoke and mirror magician act and they are “Bluffing us”.  What we are looking at, is a tringle inside a “B” wave zigzag. This always dictates that I “must” find one higher degree once these 5 diagonal 5 waves are completed. Silver and all gold stock ETFs do not confirm this gold bullish looking pattern. Silver only has to fall another $1.50 and it well be close to a new record bear market low. You can’t have gold in a bull market while silver breaks to new bear market lows. Even some of my gold stock related ETFs are also very close to breaking new record lows, so it’s not just one thing. We had so many bearish warnings that gold was going to implode, but thankfully gold investors ignore all these bearish signs. and technical indicators as well.

The Death Cross on this daily cash chart was at $1300 and the weekly Death Cross is still to come.

Even the gold hedge funds and the commercial traders have net short positions on gold. This is a bit rare but it has happened before.  Eventually the hedge funds will get into a really big bear trap and that’s when this gold market will reverse and soar north again. Printing money has nothing to do with the price of gold but it’s the velocity of any money that does drive the price of gold.

Gold hit a 30 year record high in 2011, which was a “mania peak”, not some silly correction in an ongoing bull market. Commodity crashes don’t end with some flimsy bottom but they end in a far more violent nature.  Bear market rallies “Always” retrace their entire bullish moves back down to and below the point of orgin. It seems the gold bullish wave analysts have turned a bear market rally into a bull market,  as they are all confinced that gold will still break above $1400 this year!  Good luck with that, as it seems that gold investors are following those wild bullish wave counts, which I always bet against. We can tell if we are on the wrong side as our bullish positions refuse to perform the way a bull market should.

Presently we are in a Minor degree “C” wave decline and is just about the smallest 5 wave sequence I will bet on, provided my account can handle it. There are about 3-4 ETF’s that track this gold futures cash chart very well. I’ts when they contain Options is when the patterns go insane. I’m starting to love options but will not know how much until the end of this year when all my PUTs must be closed off.

I have heard it many times how the majority of Options expire worthless, but this all depends in how we use options! If the majority of options expire worthless then it’s not a good idea to use options to chase a market in any direction. One wrong move against you and the options can go to zero and never recover before expiration date.

I will not give out details of my options trading until all PUTs are closed off, and I’m starting to build calls or take long positions in GDX or GDXJ.  I have 2hr lunch meetings with my buddy and he has taken an options course, which he likes as well. He brought a huge stack of his books, so I told him that he was hired as my Options consultant!   🙄 The fact that we can talk the same options language and work together, is more important than his real world experiences.  Everything I do can be cloned and scaled up with no real limits.

Traders don’t have to make millions as all it takes is a good healthy trading account where you can draw extra cash every year or month from. I would be happier than a littly piggy playing in a pig-pen if sometime by this year end, I cashed out with $89,000 or more!

I have a family wedding barbecue to go to this Sunday and if the weather holds, they can be a lot of fun.

Have a Great weekend!

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KOL: Cycle Degree Wave 5 Review!

 

I’m convinced that the pattern of this KOL crash is a single completed zigzag crash that had its start back when all energy related EFTs started to crash. This was 3 years ahead of all gold related peaks which is also a Fibonacci number. The secondary peak in 2011, matched the precious metals mania peak. Previous presidents killed the coal market but president Trump sure brought it back to life. Sure, I like clean energy just like anyone else, but they can also use some very clean coal burning technologies that scrubs many of the harmful by-products that are associated with coal burning as a source of electricity.

Commodatity wave patterns in some respects look like normal patterns but “ALL” commodities are connected with giant zigzags. Using normal stock market wave analysis will never work because we have to count them like big diagonals. Diagonals are the wildest patterns you will ever run across and they must be labeled correctly if they are being used.

If the 2016 bottom is a 4th wave bottom in Cycle degree, then we could be facing a big KOL correction with the next major peak not expected until 2o41. That still leaves lots of time for a huge bear market to still play out.  KOL should not break to new record lows if  the next big bullish phase is in progress.  I will not count out all the little waves as there could still be many adjustments along the way that will need to be done. I will not be trading this ETF as the gold sector has all of my attention, but KOL offers a climpse into the future that is too hard for me to ignore.

There may only be a few Cycle degree 4th wave bottoms completed, with the US dollar index being another.  2018 seems to be a peak at this time, and not until I see that a clear or better looking correction has taken place, will I turn bullish on KOL. 2019 could be positive for all commodaties, as a rebound is most likely to happen.

Deflation is coming so for the next three years KOL could act very bearish. The start of solar cycle #25 should turn KOL into acting bullish, as solar cycle bottoms are bear market assasins!  Markets usually crash 1-2 years before solar cycle bottoms,  just like they did during the 2008 crash. KOL and stocks hit bottom together in 2009 as they seemed to synchronize very well.

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