“Garbage In, Garbage Out”, is how it works with the EWP. Flipping numbers and letters around like they are hamburgers on a grill, just scrambles more of the garbage coming in, which in turn destroys every wave position we may think we have looking into the future. The majority of wave analysts and gurus focus on the gold price, and what the hedge funds are doing in gold. In most part they ignore silver and even ignore most of the gold stock ETFs as well. SLV follows the silver cash futures very well, so I know there are no options involved inside the SLV, ETF.
The price support of $13 is the magic number that will confirm that silver was in just another bear market rally! Up top in 2012. we also had a bear market rally, as that entire bullish run was completely retraced. How can gold be in a bull market after SLV drops another $1 and falls below $13? Market Vane in 2011 registered 96% silver bulls, one of the most extreme readings you will ever get and SLV imploded shortly after!
In 2011 SLV peaked before GLD by many months, so I think this theme will always be present, making Silver a very good leading indicator. Gold investors think that the 2011 peak was just a peak in an on going bull market correction, but this is a “false assumption”. 2011 was a 30 year commodity mania peak and they do not correct in just 4-5 years. They also never end with a soft bottom like in late 2015. When I apply a 75-150-day MA, then we are sitting on a Death Cross right now! This is the worst bullish position we can find ourselves trapped in.
Those that are wishing and hoping for the return of the big silver bull, will have to wait until 2041 for a Supercycle degree wave III metals mania. At most during our life span, we can be part of two mania peaks and 2011 was my second mania peak.
The wave decline since 2011 has been a classic diagonal set of 5 waves, which I was not sure how to count when it happened. All commodities are about connecting big zigzags together which is why I include the “C” wave peak in Primary degree for 2011. Don’t get me wrong, as all of 2019 could be very bullish for the metals market which I plan to participate, to the fullest extent my real money account will allow!
Late 2011 also saw the first peak in solar cycle #24 much like what happened in 1980! In 1999 this flipped when the price of silver was propelled to the upside. This should happen again when solar cycle #24 ends. The solar cycles are one of the most powerfull indicators for the starts and endings to bullish and bear cycles. Producing bearish wave counts when solar cycle #25 arrives will kill or trash every bearish wave count we can dream up, which should match my Cycle degree wave 4 bottom as well.
After this time period, there is a good chance that this blog will go “Dark” when “NO” more wave positions will be posted. This may even happen sooner, as in the last 2.4 years, no practicing wave analyst has expressed any real desire to work inside the Cycle degree parameters that I follow. If nobody is willing to devote their life to maintaining Cycle degree wave analysis, then all my work will end up getting buried in history, never to rise again. Modern wave analysts have destroyed the EWP, which all happened after the mania peak in 2000! In the early days it was one on one, that kept the EWP going, as there was no internet at that time.