What the majority of gold investors don’t have a clue what a bear market rally actually is. The last thing they understand is that the peak of 2011 was a gold mania peak. Yes I said a gold mania peak, with a Cycle degree wave 3. Manias do not end well, and they sure don’t end with a soft bottom like gold has done. I have tried to explain this to gold investors and they pretty well give you the middle finger and tell you to piss off! They are convinced a bull market correction is over and another leg up is going to happen.
All my wave positions in gold and gold stock ETFs are working wave counts, where there is real money being use to test this wave count. Even for Cycle degree gold O have tons of technical readings that do not confirm that any bull market is set to take of. A stupid forecast (at this time) would be for gold to reach $2225 on this leg up.!
They have bee forecasting a $2000 gold price for 50 years, and it still hasn’t happened. It may take until 2041 before this forecast comes true.
If you are still a fire breathing gold bull, and believe all the crap you hear about a gold correction finishing. Then I will tell you that gold could go the opposite way and crash $500 to below $800. $800 has always been major support, so I don’t get it that they think a single flimsy price bottom is going to enhance their life! There is the time to invest in gold and there are times when gold turns into a traders world. Good gold bear trader will love this market for the next three years. By the end of this year gold will only be at stage 1 of a bear market, followed by an extremely volatile and soaring gold price that could make a $1000 run . Who will be the most nimble to catch this super run in gold! It will not be the investors as the traders are far more nimble even if they carried huge positions. There is a huge difference betting 100 shares of say GLD, than 100 futures contracts. I don’t know the price of a 100 ounce gold contract, but I bet a reader can figure out what 100 gold contracts will cost. All this time the short player, “one who bets on the markets to go down, will enjoy his shamrock green while the gold bulls who are still holding, are seeing a sea of red.
Investors don’t see a crash when they already own gold, so a bear market rally will fool the majority all the time. The market will always turn its back on investors so it can do the most damage. This market does not allow us to be complacent as a huge deflationary crash is on its way. Part one of this crash you can watch on the 6 o”clock news by this fall.
There are three stages to unwinding a gold bubble, and this fall will only be the first stage, with two more stages to go.
Fundamentals will always give you the wrong information at the extremes, and I repeat that when I hear some analysts recite fundamentals justifying a bull market.
All the analysts were bearish on gold in 1999 as they were all selling, Market Vane was at 14% bulls, presently at 34% bulls. This needs to drop dramatically before we reverse. My weekly Market Vane report does not confirm any gold bullish outlook. And I’m sure the speculators have to turn fully bearish, before this ends. It is the speculators in the COT reports that are the most helpful as they always get trapped in a trend. When it turns, they get into panic and end up dumping gold. They dumped 700 tonne of gold this year already.
The most important thing you have to be aware of and that is, that the space of nothing below the $1047 gold price there is teaming pool of “SELL” orders. They are not buy on the dip orders, as it would take a very experience gold trader to catch a falling knife. I have traded futures in Gold,Oil and US dollar back in 2006, so I do sympathize with them all the time. Earning a good green payload and dumping it in your trading account feels great, but many times we can’t keep this cash hall, and next thing you know your living with the guys on East Hasting Street.
If we got a $100 gold “gap” down would not surprise me at all, and actually I would welcome it, as it will scramble the gold bulls mind, figuring out in what just happened.
Hows this wave count in gold enhance your life? This is the crap that people read thing he knows what he is doing, after all you have to have a bullish wave count in a bull market! The fact this wave count has already been trashed making it worthless wave count dumped into the digital hell. I would bet 2 Silver Stones against this guy any day of the year and come out smelling like a rose. This waver sees the $1050 bottom as a Primary degree 4th wave bottom so he is so far off from the real count that this guy will do more damage to you than you can imagine. You missed another good chance to play short so you missed out on those gains, and missing out is a loss just the same.
Only able to bet to the long side,we are only running at a 50% efficiency rate at best.