Daily Archives: July 9, 2018

Silver Monthly Chart: Death Cross Countdown!

I have personally dealt more with silver than gold on the street level which I will talk more about later down this page.  Silver is a prime example what a diagaonal bull market and bear market really looks like. The 1980 peak was an “A” wave peak in Primary degree followed by a Primary degree bear market that looks like it could have ended after a running triangle or real bad running zigzag. Diagonals in bear markets distort, so we have to remember that as well. Silver just barely squeaked into a new record high on a “C” wave bull market before,  it to collapsed with the 2011 peak at about the $48 price peak. At the 2011 peak $200-$300 silver forecasts were being made. That is just a regurgitated forecast of the 1970’s so there is nothing new with those two forecasts.

Our bear market in silver is not finished, no matter how much the silver bulls keep insisting it is!  Silver is in a 5 wave diagonal decline and needs a final plunge to land at another “A” wave in Primary degree. In short this is a Cycle degree 4th wave correction containing a zigzag with three Primary degree moves. (A,B,C)  I could have the perfect wave count and the majority will never use it to buy low! I’m sure the public will be freaking out as silver plunges to new record lows. You have to be prepared well in advance and I’ve already been planning for months.

Silver bullish investors do not realize that they are bullish standing on a platform that is about to collapse, and I can scream as loud as I want and nobody will listen.  They listen to the screaming bullish move scenarios first.

During the start of the 2001 bullish cycle we can see a Golden Cross (GC) Crossings are always delayed or lagging.  It’s just a matter of a trigger and silver will implode in price.

 

I have a silver 10 ounce  Canadian Coin that I have used to bet with and I hope silver prices will crash as I will buy some more of these beautiful coins. They are heavy coins but glisten when in the light.  My coin is locked in a bet,  until gold crashes below $1047  The house (friend) pays me a 10 ounce silver coin. If I had more coins I would take on more bets.

All this could take well into the fall to play out, so have patience and let the trade come to you. I never chase a bull market or double down in a bear markets, as those are real emotional acts.

Laying down big shorts after it has turned down will cost you big time with the counter rally and most of the time you end up with nothing or a loss.

We are going to see some extreme price swings and as long as we buy bullion at the bottom of crashes we bring down the average.

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Brent, WTI Oil Super Spike?

Oil Super Spike

Some oil bull is expecting a jump to $150, but this is not what I see that’s going to happen. It’s more like oil is going to crash before it soars again. There is a simple calculation that any kid can make, and that is apply the Gold/Oil ratio. The reason people don’t use the simple ratio is because they love to make shit more complex, not easier. I have been using the Gold/Oil ratio for close to 20 years, and I gave it to the youngest green horn that I have contact with. I explained this to a Millennial and my son inlaw this week already. Another reason they don’t use the ratio as an indicator, is because it takes work to maintain a simple calculation, and in general they don’t want to do the work.  This is also “very” true in all wave counts that you see on the internet today.

The WTI ratio can be used for this, but expect slight fluctuations.  We are sitting at a 17:1 ratio which is getting to the extremes in a bear market rally. The 2014 peak, also a bear market rally, this ratio crashed to 17:1 just before crude oil imploded. Traders in 2014 were all bullish sitting just above a DC cross and they sure are doing the exact same thing this summer.

I decided to quickly check the Gold/Brent ratio and it’s worse than the WTI. The Gold /Brent ratio hit 16.14 today so Brent crude is also confirm that we are at a bear market rally extreme.

Oil is in a huge diagonal structure that “all” commadaties have, and the 2018 peak was the real Cycle degree wave 3 peak. Every month and every year that goes by and it doesn’t destroy the wave 3 location, helps to confirm it could hold for a very long time. When looking at any of my wave counts, never forget where I’m counting from. Think of the ending diagonal turned on its side and slightly pointing up. The bull market From 1999 to the 2008 top was “NOT” an impulse folks.  It was a diagonal move with “7” waves in it, not 5 waves. The majority of all expert wave counters count 7 waves as 5 waves! This is lazy wave counting!

From the 2016 bottom, as soon as you see the very first “A” wave in Minor degree, I’ve already started to paint you a picture, that a bear market rally is in progress. The wild expanded correction did happen and has produced the “thrust” of a “C” wave bull market. The Brent Crude Death Cross is below us, as we had our first DC in 2014. The sequence is (DC,GC,DC,) for bear markets, and then (GC,DC,GC,) for bull markets. In general all these crossings work very well with Cycle degree wave counting.

Any support is down at the $40-$45 price range with is the same for WTI.  A little 10-20% correction is not going to do it, not by a long shot as Commercial trader positions a rising wedge and Gold oil ratio will implode the price of oil worldwide. I’m sure were going to see another world oil glut and until that arrives no bull market will form. 25:1 an 44:1 were bear market low ratios, and they all produced bull market from those ugly lows.

One quick way to ceck any outrages oil price claims is to take the $150 oilprice any muliply it with the present ratio of 17:1 and you get close to a $2500 gold price.  Any expert oil forecaster is also, unknowingly forecasting a gold price as the Gold/Oil ratio is connected with an unbreakable elastic band! It can stretch from maximum to minimum, but it will not break. Those that tell the public it can break are full of bullshit!   Fundamentals will always tell you the wrong things at the extremes, so all those freaking oil supply and demand numbers mean nothing, as a world oil glut is more a certainty, than a world oil shortage is.

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SP500 Intraday Chart: Keeping The Bulls Trapped!

The large chart size is to big to handle in my editor and I may have to go back to smaller sized charts. The SP500 is charging along and wants to keep going. The problem is that since the start of this rally just after April Fool’s is all choppy and distorted. What else is new?  When they are choppy like this with only a few small 5 wave runs, then It looks like the trend is going against  the bigger trend. It’s also telling me that we are in a bear market rally, in intraday style. I will repeat my meaning of a bear market rally and it applies to the intraday charts as well.

A bear market rally must retrace it’s entire move, back to and below the point of origin. In this case it would be below the April Fool’s Day of at least 2550. Talk about getting fooled by some date way back in April 2018!   😯 All this slow summer action is allowing the 50-day MA to get closer and closer in slicing the 200-day MA in half.  It’s not that far away and when this happens we end up with a Death Cross (DC).  If you don’t know how to short trade and are strictly an investor then be prepared for a summer crash into the fall. This is not some silly correction we are dealing with, but just a good old fasioned meltdow. It may be a slow meltdown, but this market could see a 70% crash, erasing trillions of dollars in just one year. This is all money destruction and money destruction is deflationary. When all stocks deflate do you think gold is going to inflate in price? In 2008 everything imploded including commodities, so I see a similar setup happening now.

Vertully every commodity I cover is sitting on a Death Cross and I’m sure all stocks also will have Death Crosses waiting for investors. Mr. Bear, the butcher of wall street bulls, is sharpening his knife as he is going to have to do alot of slicing and dicing to get the best choices for a fall barbecue.  I have tons of stuff to post but I will be reducing intraday posts as each little waves do not need to get confirm. For stocks the only thing that matters is when we get close to an “A” wave in Primary degree. “A” waves are buy signals, like oil was in the 2008 crash.

The wave counts you see on the internet, with all that intricate detail come from folks that have nothing better to do, and chances are they have no money at risk and are not active traders. It is really sad what the EWP has turned into as they keep posting garbage wave counts that break every rule in the wave principle.  If all this intricate wave counting can not produce a very good real money trade setup, or spot an impending Gold crash, then that wave count should be instantly trashed.  The action will be in gold and gold stocks, so I will spend more time on them.

 

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