Monthly Archives: July 2018

Will The Nifty Crash As well?

This is what they call a one day chart with nothing but diagonal wave structures which are not important enough to spend all my time counting them out. What I’m after is the last peak of this run as India will not be unscathed in the comming deflationary crash. So far the Nifty has already turned and August may see the continuation of a bearish trend. Every new record high could be the last record high, and the record high for all of 2008. India produces many commodaties that are traded all over the world, so when commodaties implode so will the Nifty.

The record high to beat again, is 11,366 which peaked today. I have a strong following from India as I talk to traders about the Nifty in my neighborhood. Hopefully this peak will hold but otherwise, I have to keep it in mind that any extreme can still push to a higher extreme, before they implode! Without a doubt the world is going to suffer a major deflationary crash, where nothing including gold will hold up, except for the US dollar. My personal trading account is already mostly in US dollars and they will remain there for the rest of my life, as I prefer to trade in US funds anyway.  When I convert back to CAD at any time, I get an extra 33% kicker to boot.

Gold and silver was in a 30 year mania bubble in 2011, and its crash and bear market is just starting to get going. India is also a huge gold market, so to say that bullion holders in India are not going to get hurt is an understatement.  Even cotton prices are set to implode as all commodaties will take a hit.

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Gold Daily Chart: $1120 Second Last Chance to Turn Into A Raging Gold Bull!

Gold’s little rally didn’t last to long  as it seems gold has resumed its downward trend. From the 2011 peak the pattern I have been working  is what I call a diagoanl 5 wave sequence, not a a 5 wave impulse sequence. Zigzags are king in the commodities world and gold is no exception in containing zigzags. Since I need a zigzag in this 5th wave, the choppy wave structure you see is a  “triangle” inside a “B” wave correction. This triangle is extremely important as it forces me to have one higher degree position ready, when gold has finished crashing, by later this fall. Gold $1120 leaves only “one” support leg left before it to crumbles in the dust!

Majority of wavers have twisted a bear market rally into a bull market, which is completely wrong, and those bullish wavers are going to cause you to take massive losses. These wavers have never been certified by EWI, and it seems they can turn water into wine as well. The miracle of laying down smoke and mirror BS seems to be a speciality in modern wave analysis.

If you haven’t figured it out yet (see the gold crash coming) then gold investors and gold bugs will suffer huge loses, and I won’t shed a tear. Most wavers don’t even recognize a gold mania bubble has burst back in 2011, they think its just an on going bull market correction. Gold finished a 30 year mania peak which will not get repeated until 2041.

The world is being setup for a massive deflationary crash of Cycle degree magnitude, which will take everything down and crush all rich investors to where they turn into shoeshine boys. I will not shed a single tear over the rich investors that think investing at the peak of a the bigest inflationary bubble of all time. Over and over the news will tell us how investors are suffering huge  losses, and it is the main reason I will never become an investor but only a trader.

folks, the exact same setup as in the 2008 top are being setup now, except now it will take much longer and gold will crash along with all other assets, escpecially real estate! Facebook is just a little opening shot, as it is going to get much worse by the end of this year. This time we will get a huge relief rally that could send the gold price soaring $1000 back up to the $1700-$1900 price range. This is a $200 window which could happen by summer 2019.  I’m short this market and the bearish forces will be the wind on my back when the $1047 price level gets breached.  If your gold stock invesment is not doing what you “hoped”, then chances are very good you are on the wrong side of the trade!

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British Pound Weekly Chart Death Cross Review

So far the British Pound Death Cross has already happened across all three important time frames.(daily, weekly, monthly ) Some of my indicators are already turning bullish but I want to see 80% of my indicators turn bullish, not just 20% or so.

We can see that the commercials are long the GBP already by a substantial amount. The speculators are betting the opposite way and if they keep on turning bearish then they will be in a big bear trap. Commercials traders do not assume the same type of risk the speculators do as they work closer to the business than any speculators ever will.

If only 20% of my indicators are present then this is not nearly enough to cause a major reversal at this time.  New record lows in the GBP should still happen but, after that all bearish bets would have to be off the table.

Every Tuesday I get the Market Vane report and it had a low of only 33% bulls present. This is also decent, but it could sink to below 10 yet. The GBP is inside the US dollar basket so it’s not going to fly while the US dollar is still bullish. I’ve seen these setups before and extremes can become more extreme, before they reverse and soar the other way. We have 5 months left this year and these indicators should stiffen up as the months go by.

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US Dollar: Weekly Chart Golden Cross Review

Since so many things correlate to Intermediate degree 4th waves, I decided to keep my old wave count going. My Cycle degree 4th wave bottom in the US dollar stays after which it explodeded while stocks, gold, silver investments crashed. The entire planet was bearish on the USD back in 2008, but yet it turned and soared ignoring all fundamentals at that time. US dollar bear experts dropped like flies as their forecasts were all proven wrong.

I don’t escpecially like some of the positions but I sure think we are dealing with an expanded flat in Intermediate degree. An expanded flat always means a new record high will come. This new record would be above 104 on this futures chart. The next bull market peak to break will be 122, with the biggest price to retrace being 165!

On the monthly and daily charts, the Golden Cross has already happened, it is this weekly chart that needs another Golden Cross to happen. Three golden crosses on the US dollar sure looks like a bull market to me! Five waves up in Primary degree is what we need to complete wave 5 in Cycle degree. I will be making adjustments  along the way but the US dollar bull market has been unleashed, which will produce a deflationary crash that no one alive today has ever experienced.

Deflation is in our future, not some imaginary runaway inflation that the gold bulls must have to be right. It has nothing to do with printing money folks, it’s all about the velocity of any money in the economy at any given time. Ignoring the world fertility crash is a big mistake as billions of older generations will be gone by 2050 and retired people are frugal. When markets crash, couples stop having babies as uncertainty grows, so after a market crash, fertility rates crash as well.

As the US dollar keeps turning up, then this will drag the 50-day MA up into the 200-day MA and then all three time periods will have completed golden crosses.

That’s about as bullish for the USD as any simple technical indicator could ever tell us.

On the monthly chart I also have a huge falling wedge which is another very bullish indicator that I use. This bull market could keep going for the rest of the year but then be ready for a big USD crash that will send the gold price soaring again. There are those that see it coming, and then there is always the majority that will never see any crash coming.

 

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Euro Weekly Chart: Death Cross Update

I have made changes with some of my locations, but in the end the same wave 3-4 in Intermediate degree stays the same. Any wave 4 counter rally is a bear market rally and to confirm that, the Euro will eventually hit a new record low. It is the US dollar that turned into a safe haven currency, which will send the USD soaring in a massive bull market that only the deflationists may understand.EWI forecast of a deflationary crash is coming true and his bullish US dollar is also coming true.

The sad part about it is that this planet is going to suffer a massive deflationary presures the likes no one alive has every witnessed. Every single asset class including gold will suffer severe price shocks in the next 3 or so years that will boggle our minds.  I will not spend my time counting all the little intraday waves as I’m not a day traders and never will be. All I need is three degree levels as they spawn huge moves where someone can make some decent money on.

Look back up and we can see our first Death Cross and the results of this DC. I’d say without a doubt 2014 would have been an excellent short bet  for those paying attention.

Once the EURO soared again in 2017 it took a long time for the Golden Cross to form, but this is always the case. On the Euro daily chart the Euro Death Cross has already happened and now on this weekly chart another Death Cross is ahead of us. Our CAD is in the same leaking boat and so the EU zone is not the only currnecy that’s going to take a hit.

The commercials are not all that distorted, and my Market Vane report still needs to get rid of more Euro bulls, so much more downside to the Euro should happen.

We are in the same situation as the top of 2008, when every asset class will fail except for the US dollar. In 2008 the USD soared as everything crashed. This was a brief intense 8 month horror show, but this time we could end up with a 2 year decline doing the same thing. The world is in a massive real estate bubble never before seen in history, and those rich people that think that real estate prices are going to keep flying at 10% a year are going to get shocked, when no more buyers show up!

In Canada, our real estate bubble has already burst, and it will get much worse in the long run.  Nobody is talking about the world fertility crash, which shocked me the first time I researched it. Massive deflation is in our future, not massive inflation. As usual the US FED is still fighting inflation making matters far worse.

Printing money will never solve this problem as it is part of a much bigger 30 year cycle and even 100 year cycle. Little Iceland took down the entire world in 2007-2008, so it will not take much for any other country to implode as well. Can gold crash to below $800? You bet it can, as that will be just the opening shot. Facebook is another example in what’s coming, and all those gold investors will get the shock of their lives once gold breaks that $1047 price level. I have a silver 10 ounce coin bet on it and once it crosses this red line, my gold cycles consulting fees will explode. No money manger will get to see my gold cycles research unless they drop a pure silver 10-Troy ounce coin in my hand first, and that is only for a 2-3 hour session!

 

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Gold Weekly Chart Death Cross Review

Look back uptothe 2011 peak which is a 30 year cycle mania peak. it’s not a simple correction but it will be a full blown gold crash which noone alive today has ever experinced. The 2008 crash was just and example of what we are going to get. For the 2011 peak I now show a “Y” wave in cycle degree.  All the modern wave analsyts should instantly know the wave pattern this “Y” wave top will produce.  This “Y” wave top dosen’t change my short term or long range forecasts one bit, as it will stay exactly the same.

This “Y” wave crash has to produce another zigzag which is what I have, then the bottom must be an “X” wave. Gold at the $1300 daily chart level already had it’s first Death Cross. The weekly chart has already shown us gold below the 200-day MA so it is just a matter of time before another support leg crumbles. At gold $1100 there would only be a window of $52 at best, for this so called bull market to turn. Once gold cut through the $1047 price then the game is up as all gold investors were in a bull trap.  Speculators are still in a bull trap so there will be more gold selling for sure.  Banks in their infinate wisdom were buying gold above $1300 , so once gold support is broken then, they will get in a panic as well as the gold price plunges. GLD and IAU will have to join in on the selling to cut back their share count as well.

So here gold sits with two more Death Crosses to come below present prices. Folks, the whole world is invested at the top of Death Crosses across all commodaties and stock exchanges so this is not a a good bullish sign for gold. The inflationist are getting it all wrong as the gold price has nothing to do with money printing. It’s all about the volocity of any money that produces inflation. Shopping for school suplies can cause inflation and christmas shopping sure can get the velocity of money moving.RRSP season in the spring will increase the volocity in the spring.

We are in a massive world real estate bubble never before matched in history and all the rich people holding 2 or more homes will get killed in a massive real estate crash and deleveraging process that goes with it.

Every gold bull and every gold bear will be watching these two sets of prices. The $1400 price for the big bullish breakout and below $1047 the gold bears will be proven right. I have many people I know that are also whatching this happen from their iPhone apps.

There is a time to invest in gold and then there is a time to trade it, and investing on top of a Death Cross is not my idea of investing, that’s financial suicide.

Everything I have been saying is still on track and needs no further adjustments.

 

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News Flash! Gold Bear Spotted!

If you ever want to see a visualization of  our present gold bear about to attack, then this is it! He has his sights on the fish, which represents our present day gold investors. I’m sure there are many gold bugs that the salmon has been eating so this gold bear gets an appetizer to boot.  One slash with his right claws, into his mouth and this fishes head is chopped off!

If you are not a contrarian or take a contrary outlook in the gold market, then you will become a victim just like the fish!

 

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Mini SP500 Top And Death Cross Below!

 

If you have never heard about this “Death Cross” thing then I strongly recommend that you research it, to know what happens once a Death Cross has formed.

I want to know before any DC forms, not after. Sure this could keep rolling around the 50-day MA, but as soon as this market is set to turn down, then the 50-day will slice through the 200-day MA and an instant Death Cross will get formed.  I saw very quickly that this 50-200-day MA could enhance my Cycle degree forecasting and trading that I have incorporated it, as one of my official indicators that can be use in Cycle degree wave analysis. I’m working on about 5 indicators which is all you need to spot a crash before it happens.

I changed my wave position to an Intermediate degree 5 wave run, because we may get a Cycle degree zigzag in stocks as well. The odds are increasing every week and month that goes by. If any part of this decline starts on a fast descent, then we could also be looking at an Intermediate degree zigzag crash. There is also a high degree of correlation going on with the gold sectors as they all are ending up crashing together. This is going to be a deflationary crash that will make the 2008 crash look like a garden party.

The 2008 crash lasted about 8 months during it worst phase, now imagine the same thing, but lasting 1-2 years. If there are young Millennials out there looking to “invest” in their own home, then I strongly suggest to wait for three years. This insane real-estate market will show you a whole new landscape by the end of Cycle degree wave 4.

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It’s Going To Be A Hot One!

 

Sanatana “Smooth”

For the next three days, this screenshot from our Surrey area shows the highest temperature for the entire year. Usually we get our warmest weather in July  and so far It has not disappointed me. I may take a break from publishing and lighten up in the postings, until Monday.

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Mark Zuckerberg’s Flash Crash And $16.8 Billion Wipe out

Facebook

What you see all happened close to the end of the day. This flash crash will not show up until when trading begins. FB crashed all the way down to just below $195 and then soared right back up to the 217.50 close this Wednesday. This was strictly computer generated as no human can react this fast. If there were humans invoved then it would be choppy as hell, or we can actually see some waves. I will add to this in the next few days, but my last top posting was on June 30, 2018 when FB was about $200. FB traveled an additional $18 before this sudden flash crash happened. At a bull market top this is not a good sign as billions of investor money also when up in smoke like Mark Zugerburg’s $16.8 billion did. Investors are going to start thinking twice if this stock is worth holding.

This is another reason why I trade and don’t invest, because the smart traders that had puts out on FB turned out to be big winners!

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GLD: Bear Market Progress Update.

 

Always remember that the Death Cross is alive and real in gold, which GLD represents very well. GLD follows the futures chart very well except GLD has its patterns a bit smoother. I always had gold as a bear market rally, but was not sure of the location or excatly the pattern that we were going to get. One support leg has already been “taken out” while 3 more bull market support price levels will get taken out as well.

The entire bullish gold investors universe rests on one price to hold at $100 while $80 in GLD was always major support from my perspective. This 5th wave has one little special wave in it and that is it has a triangle in the “B” wave position. This little triangle is a clear signal that my wave count has to end on a higher degree, once the 5th wave bottom has clearly formed.  I will not take a position in GLD when the bottom arrives as I will see what IAU does. Most of my attention will be on GDX and gold stock ETFs.

My Cycle degree wave positions will eventually give me enough to create a very good home based income all based on cash flow. Cash is king in my world, so I use my cash base as an escape route if necessary. The only thing I need is to protect my cash, so I can keep betting the way I’m used to doing.

“All” the gold investors think we just finish a gold bull market correction, when in fact the 2011 peak was a 30 year gold/silver mania peak, that will not happen again until 2041! (2011+30) 2041 will be the home of the next SC degree wave 3 peak, but I will never see it happen. It’s the younger generation of wave analysts that might catch it.

The US dollar is in a huge bull market that the gold experts do not understand, if they are expecting the US dollar to crash. Good luck with that as I tried for years to do the same thing and it never worked. At every 30 year gold peak it’s time to sell all excess bullion, as it sure is not the time to “invest” in gold assets.

Any Cycle degree wave 4 has to look much like the crude oil crash has already done, while gold topped 3 years after oil. Oil is giving us a preview in what gold should eventually look like as well.  That was a soft landing in late 2015, and I assure you bear markets do not land softley. They end with a crash!

I’m very bearish on gold and gold stocks and have taken bearish positions in mostly GDX and IAU. Any doubt, then my trading account records will confirm that these positions have been taken. My GDX positions are all traded with real money and “No Stops” of any type.

 

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NASDAQ: World Record Intraday High Update

The Nasdaq, so far has topped out at 7486 and has now started another small correction or the Nasdaq stock party could be over. From here on any record high could be the last record high for 2018. A few are figuring out that this market is doomed no matter how much they spin the bull shit (BS) that it is a good time to invest. There is a huge deflationary crash and bear market coming that only a few might understand.  When stock prices deflate, and the gold price crashes together then this is a deflationary crash.

This has all happened before and even recently depending on if you can remember the 2008 crash.  For about 8 months “everything” crash together ending at a bottom for gold in late November. Stocks bottomed in March 2009. The exact same forces are at work, where we are in the exact same position as the early 2008 top was.

This time in Cycle degree, stocks will join in with gold, but far more syncronized in the length of time. In otherwords, they can all crash together until gold crashes below $500 again. Mention $500 gold to a gold bug, and they lose it.  There are only a few big Nasdaq names that are still pushing the Nasdaq higher, so those 5 big names would be critical to watch for early exhaustion or speed deceleration. The choppy waves are there, the commercial traders have large short positions on the Nasdaq while the speculators are skewed to the long side.

Does it look like the commercials are jumping for joy and in a bullish position? No, the red at the bottom are the commercial short positions, while the lite bar graph on the top represents the large speculator long positions. It is the large speculators that are always wrong at the extremes, except the talking heads always talk about what the speculators are doing not what the commercial dealers are doing.

The Gold/Nasdaq ratio also supports my bearish views as today it sits at a 6.1:1 ratio, which is the most expensive Gold/Nasdaq ratio I have ever calculated.

I guess it is also a good time, to post a very professional description of the warning signs of a market top.

 

 

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Amazon When will It Crash And Burn?

A person can waste a lot of time and money trying to short Amazon as it just refuses to die. It will never stay up as we are going into a deflationary crash the likes we haven’t see since the 2008 crash. I would be going for a Cycle degree wave three top in Amazon as well.  It does not take rocket science to know what Amazon sells is commodaty related and depends entirely on the consumer keeping up their spending habits . Shop till you drop seems to the magic word for AMZN.

At $1858 as the top so far, Amazon would have to drop like a rock. Any larger drop would sign it’s death warrnt!  Look at the gap at $1000 so that be one small area for a bounce.

The gold/Amzn ratio also hit its highest today with a 1.49:1 ratio. The most expensive all year so far.

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West Coast Border Gold Home Page And App!

Border Gold Home Page

For those that want to sync up with the source of gold retail and spot prices, then get the two following page and one app onto your smart phone home screen.

 

I’m getting all my friends to add these two sites to their front page and below is a screen shot from their app, mostly in spot prices.

I’m getting a few to sync up but if you want to see a gold crash in action then we may as well stare at the screen on our smart phones. All gold has to do is cross this $1047 price level which confirms that our present rally was nothing but another bull trap! The entire world is going to watch which comes in first, $1400 gold or $1047 gold!

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DJIA 2000-2018 Review

I like to use liear charts once in a while to so the dramatic move the markets have made.  I have it as a Cycle degree wave three top just like gold. The biggest stock market bubble in history does not end with a simple correction.  Bare minimum it needs to go back down and retrace this 5th wave we have finished. I’m sure that stocks and the gold market are going to sync up as they all crash together. There is a time to invest and a time to sell. This is not the time to invest from my perspective. Every stock market and gold markets are sitting on Death Crosses, and investors are oblivious to it. I’m glad I’m only a trader because investors are the ones that get hurt the most.

It might even look like that the DJIA may also grow a zigzag which I will start to keep an eye on.  A deflationary crash is coming that nobody is expecting but only a few.

I have moved all my CAD money to US funds and plan on staying there forever. When I need CAD funds I still have a small long account to work with.

As a trader I need not fear of a meltdown as my home turf or safe-haven is always cash. Go to cash, when things don’t go well and then, “take a knee”  for a few minutes, and start again.  This is not going to end well folks as bubbles bursting never does. This time it’s much worse as gold and oil is also going for a wild ride.

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SP500 Intraday Top Update!

As we can see the Sp500 made a quick reversal today which could hold.  All bear market rallies get retraced so I hope investors are reading this as a bearish rally. After all no new record highs have been recorded in the SP500 in 2018.  Any wave 2 rally in any degree is a bear market rally so this move should clear all 2018 lows. I cannot stress it enough times and that is. I am swamped with Death Crosses below present prices in just about everything except for the US dollar. Major metals as well, which means it’s all going down together! This setup feels just like the top of 2008 and the following gold crash down to $700. This all spells extreme deflation is coming our way and any asset class that’s not safe and secure will suffer devastating price declines. The inflation party is over as most world currencies are imploding making the USD the place to be.

Real-estate prices should take a major hit in the next three years leaving people trapped in their homes as the price of their homes crash. Just checking the futures lumber prices, they have been on a crash course, which the ETF (CUT) also confirms. International Forest Products (IFP) a company that I worked for most of my working years also has a crashing stock price.

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US Dollar Big Picture Review: Inflation Or Deflation?

The top chart is work in progress. I work out my wave positions from memory in the shape of pictures, then I try to confirm it (offline) by working on my paper print out wave positions. With difficult wave positions, I always work from paper as the rest of the world has their heads stuck in their computers or cellphones. If you were to test the wavers on the entire internet, I bet not a single expert waver can produce the same wave count offline and on paper in front of my eyes!

I have some huge important gaps in the USD wave positions but I’m very confindent, that the USD is in a much bigger bull market than any expert on this planet can presently imagine. The gold bugs are escpecially wrong if the the dollar remains bullish until 2101. (Submillennium Degree wave 3) GSC degree wave 3 would end about 2071.

It’s between major peaks of the USD and its corrections,  that will produce wild gold bullish phases that will blow your mind.

Folks, there is a time when to invest in gold and there is a time when to “SELL” gold. Holding gold at the 2011 peak is the worst mistake that investors make as 2011 was a 30 year gold cycle mania peak. Not some correction in an ongoing bull market where they expect $5000 gold. This is not going to happen as gold will hit  below $500 long before gold $5000. They got their zeros wrong!  I was always scratching my head how the goldbulls can expect a super bull market, in gold when the USD has so little room to implode.

The 2018 low in the USD (89) was a critical clue in all this which turned my USD bearish sentiments into USD bullish sentiments. My 5 waves down I thought counted out great to the degree, but then when it took off, very bullish patterns started and I had to switch to a big bull market instantly. We can’t be asleep at the switch, as every major turning  requires us to switch 180%.

I made up two of these but with the bigger trend lines that I see. Just the big wedge alone, for this length of time suggests a huge USD bull market is coming, which is deflationary to say the least. The USD has turned into a safe-haven currency and I for one switched to USD trading as fast as I could, and I have no regreats in doing so.

What do you think we will find if we hunt for a Golden Cross in the US dollar? On daily charts this has already happened so we have to use the Golden Crossings in a bull market. The rest of the world is sitting on Death Crosses, while the USD has just finished a Golden Cross in the daily charts. Sooner or later the USD should see a new record high, which will shock the gold investor, in how could this happen?

I just want readers to know that even though my wave counts are iffy at this point, I’m always working on the bigger picture. I’ve been at this for over 20 years trying to solve the USD Anigma code and I will not give up until I die.  It is the world birthrate crash that is doing it, that all forecasters are ignoring. I have relatives that are going to get very hurt in the next 3 years, as they are all “invested” in real-estate!  I’m a trader where cash flow is king, and nothing else matters. USD Capital preservation is going to be the key, as all other currencies are going to get crushed!  I have to make a living from my wave positions, and I would be wiped out pretty quick if I can’t make a 180 degree turning when I need to.

I have recently told my client in what I see in gold, and he has no problem with it, even though he has a good gold silver stash for his son and grandson.

In the next few years we will see how financial advisors that got you into gold acually know where they are. How many of them will call up their clints and say, “I think that gold is going to crash, and we should cash out now!”

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HDGE Double Bottom Review

HDGE turned just short of a double bottom and a new record low.  After a 5 wave decline, things change direction so I tried a small 100 share long position this morning to see how it goes, this week. The VIX is also slowly working its way back up, with most stock markets sitting on top of a Death Cross.  I will not produce wave counts on this, as a quick visual check can see a potential H&S is also forming.

 

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Silver: Last Chance To Still Be In A Bull Market

 

We are getting very close to another downside move to a point where silver must turn and soar, if it still wants to destroy my bearish wave positions. Silver is $ 2.35 away from breaking all new bull market record lows. So when silver does fall below $13 then it was just in a bear market rally, and the mass of silver bugs were in a bull trap.

From the 2016 August peak and then down to that late 2016 bottom, was a Diagonal set of 5 waves, which the gold wavers called a zigzag correction. It’s just a triangle in a “B” wave, and a running “B” wave to boot.

Here is a COT report on silver  which still has the commercials in a bearish mood, while the small traders and big speculators are bullish.  Commercials are close to the core silver business and have the least amount of risk when they hedge. Speculators are the animals as they go wild chasing anything that moves in any direction. Their not in much of a bull trap right now,  but that can still change in a very short time.

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August Crude Oil: Will It Hold Its Peak?

You can automatically assume that commodaties are sitting on a Death Cross, even if I don’t show them. I will be reducing my intraday positions as I’m not a day trader, and have no desire to become one. I’m short crude oil in a small forex account and have not been urged  to take profit. Let the bet ride, as the support bullish trend line is not going to hold oil back for any reason.  Traders are starting to get very nervous with any small decline, but they ain’t seen nothing yet. Oil bulls are going to see “red” while the short player sees green. Shamrock Green.  🙄

There are a host of indicators all confirming the same thing, as the commercials are so heavy short that there is no way a super bull market in oil can even get off the ground.

This morning the Gold/Oil ratio was still getting close to 17:1, which means that the Gold/Oil ratio is hitting a brick wall. Of course our great Photo Bomb leader wants a carbon tax to help stop climate change. Carbon tax on oil is the biggest mistake any governmet can make, as it is based on falsified data from the experts. The people know this and the conservatives know they can form a new government, based solely on fighting the Carbon Tax. The world fertility crash will fix the CO2 problem, and my bet is that the CO2 PPM (410) will implode in the next 50 years.

Oil is in a bear market rally,and incase you don’t know what that is or means then I strongly suggest you do some research on it. A bear market rally “always” returns to the point of orgin and below. That makes oil at below $28 a distinct possibility again.

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Crashing Lumber Prices Update

The last time I was calling for a top in lumber prices it was starting to form that, now obvious spike, that we still can see. These spikes show up as thin hairs in candlestick, and I decided pretty early on, that I didn’t want to count  hairs for the rest of my life. Imagine me trying to make a living counting hairs, yet the entire world uses candlestick constantly.  The entire world can’t make that single click to dump candlestick when producing positions in commodities.  I will not post intraday charts on lumber, as I don’t have the time, and will not fill out every little wiggle that we might come across to entertain my readers.

It is very important to track lumber as I see it as being the canary in a coal mine, to what is going  to happen across the entire real-estate world. I believe that the Cycle degree wave 3 position is good, and that we could be at a position where lumber prices could be subdued for many decades to come. It has to do with the world fertility rate implosion, that is going to have huge implications on the prices of all commodities including precious metals of all types. They are all sitting on Death Crosses, and we can see that lumber  has rolled over and will slice that 200-day MA creating the Death Cross at the same time. This is a Cycle degree crash and we could be heading for a bear market that will kill many jobs, that may never come back!

Been there done that folks, as we are facing the same situation that happen when I was working in the forest industry, when gold crashed in 1980. My buddy still works in the same sawmill when I joined them as my plant was toast a long time ago by then. We hope to have a bigger meeting with more of his co-workers sometime, but after they meet me, they may never talk to me again.  Gold bugs tend to get pretty agitated when you tell them that gold is going to crash below $800. I like watching them squirm when I say the $700-$800 gold is real support, not that unstable $1050 price level, that the entire gold investing community thinks is a base. The gold boom is over, and it was finished in 2011 as that was a 30 year gold mania top, that will not happen again until 2041 or Supercycle degree peaks.

At this stage of the game it looks like so many asset classes are sitting on Death Cross, that I have to shake my head in disbelieve thinking that this can’t happen.

I have been showing another friend who has lost millions and made millions, and I showed him my gold scenario, and so far he has directly told me that he agrees with the impending gold crash. This person is the only person that has seen my charts in great detail in the last decade as we are both traders at heart. Some of my old bosses turned to futures trading once they retired as well.

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SLV: 2011 Was A 30 Year, Cycle Degree Wave 3 Silver Mania Top!

I have no doubt I can read my bubble tops in commodities  and the 2011 peak was part of a 30 year cycle from 1980. This cycle has about a plus or minus 1 year cyclical rate, which in my world is far to accurate for me to believe in instantly. I know what this 30 year frequency comes from, as yesterday I researched it some more, and as far as I’m concerned it is imperative that the Cycle degree silver and gold asset trader, must incorporate this 30 year cycle in forecasting in Cycle degree out to 2041, 2071 and 2101.

Remember, all top wavers can’t forecast Cycle degree positions, but since Cycle degree is the lowest in the mathematical sequence we must all follow it. This concept of being first is hard to grasp but it is the core of what the EWP is all about. “AFTER” Cycle degree we get to Supercycle degree, and we can’t break this sequential code ever! Not by a single degree! Just imagine if you are out by a single degree in 2011? Or the 1999 bottom. Every single wave count on this planet today must have a Cycle degree base or they have nothing at all!  You can tell the wavers that have filled out every little wave in minute degree have nothing better to do, and have no risk capital at stake.

This means mathematically, that a Cycle degree world will, if it gains traction, will cut and slice every single wave count on the planet today!  I’m on my third year of working this blog dedicated to Cycle degree analysis. It’s not about me, but it’s all about keeping Cycle degree wave analytics first!  The wave principle is a sequential code and once broken, SC and GSC degree wave counts will infiltrate and infest Cycle degree like rats in a barn. I spent years getting rid of the rat infestation, but this is my third and last time, as there is “No Retreat” from 2018 on into the future. Having the wrong degree and just flipping numbers one degree, can put you out 30 years or more!

I rent, but I have an 80 square foot office space that I call my home based world. Any small space you are cozy in will work. I have worked all the time to build the EWP the way I need to eventually have a good trading account to keep making a living for the rest of my life. Hopefully others see it as well, and when your independent, nobody tells you what to do. You are the boss, and you like working for a good guy right!

Silver and GDX are about the same price range so we can use every thing from the GDX world into this SLV world. After 20 years of reading futures charts I see no reason why SLV cannot be used when buying low. SLV tracks silver very well as GLD and IAU tracks gold. This next bottom in SLV could be below support as it is a previous 4th wave like position.

I want readers to know that I can stop all wave position postings and go dark and still trade this without ever putting a mark on a chart. If you want a detailed wave position it will cost you 10 ounces of pure silver, per hour!  If some rich hedge funds wants to see my gold research then they must deposit $233,000 USD cash in consulting fees  into my USD side trading account, before I even give them the time of day!

You can get a kick out of it, but my father in-law charged $400 per hour consulting fees back in the early 80’s.

I’m convinced that the commodities markets and the stock markets are going to sync up and should crash and rise  together with the “B” wave before they all implode near the 2021 bottom time period. I’m a trader for that very reason as investors lose more money than any trader ever will. We are not afraid to go to “cash” when we need to. In a traders world cash is king!  To be honest I would rather sit around with a bunch of serious trader types than anyone else because we would have alot more fun, once the ice is thawed.

Silver cannot fall below $13 because if it does, then all the bull market rhetoric (BS) will be proven to be one big fat lie!

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SP500 Daily Chart: Death Cross Watch List!

The SP500 looks much like the DOW as they have similier waves. ISP500 went to a new bear market rally high, and it’s still well below the 2018 peak.  The Death Cross is waiting as the bears are hanging around. A few of the biggest elephants in the SP500 are holding things up as the race for a Trillion dollar market cap is on, between Apple and Amazon.

They don’t realized that the  fertility birth rate has been crashing since the 1950s.  I will report on this fertility crash as it has huge implications for gold.  After the next crash bottom you may get a fertility rate crash news 2 or so years after the bottom.  This happened in 2010 and is happening in the USA as well. The world needs a birthrate of 2.1 kids per child bearing mother just to stay even in world populations, so anything below that will not produce enough young people to care for the sick and dying. (like Japan) Entire booomer generations will vanish and this brings in deflation and the gold price will crash!

 

 

 

 

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WTI Crude Oil, Intraday Update.

Every contract month has a different wave position, so I though I would give you the one that looks the most bullish and has reached a new record high.  It has dipped so we don’t need any new record highs. If you see an intricate oil wave count covering every little wave then those wavers are painting you a picture!  There pianting us a picture saying, ” Hey I got nothing better to do and no money at stake, so I can dick with the wave counts all I want.” I have little problem in shredding any wave position you want to show me because they are all just painters playing with a big 15 color Paint by Number set. I paint bear markets and oil will take a huge hit when gold crashes again.

This daily chart has its Death Cross at about $71 so when this crosses then the game is up.  Gold/Oil ratio is at 18:1 which is nowhere near being cheap as it was 17:1 that oil crashed in 2014.  Everything including gold oil and all your commodities are going to get a crushing blow in prices, as they are investing on top of a 4th wave rally in oil and oil could crash back down to $21.  We would be in a glut by then, but as we all are supposed to know, gluts produce massive bull markets that can shock us because fundamentals didn’t see it coming. Fundamentals didn’t see the 2008 oil crash coming, while an oil crash at that time was one of my first publications.

Oil is in a big bear market rally in Intermediate degree, and only a complete retracement should happen.

The recent drop in oil has got the world in a panic already, and we are just getting going so and further drop in the price of oil could get hedge funds on a selling panic to get out other bullish positions fast.

End Of The Oil Rally and World In a Panic Mode   are very typical stories that I look for and it fits in with my bearish outlook very well. It’s only the beginning as oil can crash much deeper than all oil experts once thought. Investors have no clue that a deflationary crash is coming but I will be tracking this deflatinary crash as best as I can.

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2011: Gold Mania 30 Year Cycle Degree Wave 3 Top!

What the majority of gold investors don’t have a clue what a bear market rally actually is. The last thing they understand is that the peak of 2011 was a gold mania peak. Yes I said a gold mania peak, with a Cycle degree wave 3.  Manias do not end well, and they sure don’t end with a soft bottom like gold has done.  I have tried to explain this to gold investors and they pretty well give you the middle finger and tell you to piss off! They are convinced a bull market correction is over and another leg up is going to happen.

All my wave positions  in gold and gold stock ETFs are working wave counts, where there is real money being use to test this wave count.  Even for Cycle degree gold O have tons of technical readings that do not confirm that any bull market is set to take of. A stupid forecast (at this time) would be for gold to reach $2225 on this leg up.!

They have bee forecasting a $2000 gold price for 50 years, and it still hasn’t happened. It may take until 2041 before this forecast comes true.

If you are still a fire breathing gold bull, and believe all the crap you hear about a gold correction finishing.  Then I will tell you that gold could go the opposite way and crash $500 to below $800.  $800 has always been major support, so I don’t get it that they think a single flimsy price bottom is going to enhance their life!  There is the time to invest in gold and there are times when gold turns into a traders world. Good gold bear trader will love this market for the next three years. By the end of this year gold will only be at stage 1 of a bear market, followed by an extremely volatile and soaring gold price that could make a $1000 run .  Who will be the most nimble to catch this super run in gold! It will not be the investors as the traders are far more nimble even if they carried huge positions. There is a huge difference betting 100 shares of say GLD, than 100 futures contracts. I don’t know the price of a 100 ounce gold contract, but I bet a reader can figure out what 100 gold contracts will cost.  All this time the short player, “one who bets on the markets to go down, will enjoy his shamrock green while the gold bulls who are still holding, are seeing a sea of red.

Investors don’t see a crash when they already own gold, so a bear market rally will fool the majority all the time. The market will always turn its back on investors so it can do the most damage. This market does not allow us to be complacent as a huge deflationary crash is on its way. Part one of this crash you can watch on the 6 o”clock news by this fall.

There are three stages to unwinding a gold bubble, and this fall will only be the first stage, with two more stages to go.

Fundamentals will always give you the wrong information at the extremes, and I repeat that when I hear some analysts recite fundamentals justifying a bull market.

All the analysts were bearish on gold in 1999 as they were all selling, Market Vane was at 14% bulls, presently at 34% bulls. This needs to drop dramatically before we reverse. My weekly Market Vane report does not confirm any gold bullish outlook. And I’m sure the speculators have to turn fully bearish, before this ends. It is the speculators in the COT reports that are the most helpful as they always get trapped in a trend. When it turns, they get into panic and end up dumping gold. They dumped 700 tonne of gold this year already.

The most important thing you have to be aware of and that is, that the space of nothing below the $1047 gold price there is teaming pool of “SELL” orders. They are not buy on the dip orders, as it would take a very experience gold trader to catch a falling knife. I have traded futures in Gold,Oil and US dollar back in 2006, so I do sympathize with them all the time. Earning a good green payload and dumping it in your trading account feels great, but many times we can’t keep this cash hall, and next thing you know your living with the guys on East Hasting Street.

If we got a $100 gold “gap” down would not surprise me at all, and actually I would welcome it, as it will scramble the gold bulls mind, figuring out in what just happened.

 

Hows this wave count in gold enhance your life? This is the crap that people read thing he knows what he is doing, after all you have to have a bullish wave count in a bull market!  The fact this wave count has already been trashed making it worthless wave count dumped into the digital hell.  I would bet 2 Silver Stones against this guy any day of the year and come out smelling like a rose.  This waver sees the $1050 bottom as a Primary degree 4th wave bottom so he is so far off from the real count that this guy will do more damage to you than you can imagine.  You missed another good chance to play short so you missed out on those gains, and missing out is a loss just the same.

Only able to bet to the long side,we are only running at a 50% efficiency rate at best.

 

 

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Copper Another Death Cross In Waiting!

Every commodity I check and apply the 50-day  200-day MA to, I get the same reading. Copper has had one Death Cross, a small Golden Cross and now is set to created another Death Cross in the near future. The [A] wave back in 1980, add 30 years to that and we get 2011 after which copper also imploded!  Add 30 years plus or minus 1 year and we get 2041 which would be a Supercycle degree wave 3 peak. 2071 will get commodities to Grand Supercycle degree top

Of course investors are oblivious to this and refuse to call the Death Cross anything important. Well folks, Cycle degree Elliott wave will eat gold bug investors for breakfast if they think it’s a good time to invest in gold. I have added some trend lines we could catch the bottom of an “A”wave in Primary degree as well. How tall that “B” will be is uncertain, except it cannot go to new record highs if a zigzag will happen. When commodities correct they come down with a “thud” not on some soft landing like gold and copper has made. Does 2008 look like a “thud” to you! It sure was but that was a flat crash. 3-3-5 A flat disguised as a zigzag.

From the [B} wave bottom in 2001 and to the “C” wave bull market tops has just about formed a perfect impulse with a huge 5th wave extension. The world is going into a deflationary crash and no little $1050 will hold it back.  That long spike you see on the chart 4th wave bottom has a huge spike to the downside and it is also a signal to close off shorts.  Now the Death Cross is just ready to touch and the rest will be history.

I also have been taking the Market Vane report for a month or so, but I stayed mum on it as it is another report that should confirm my suspicion. How it works,it only tracks the bullish amount in the markets. The less bulls there are the sooner a reversal come. The highest bullish reading was 91, which is extreme to a crash low of 16% bulls. At 16% a huge bull market formed. Lumber was another extreme at 98% and it’s well on its way in its crash.

I have never had such a line up indicators that are telling me the everything is going to take a deep hit into this fall. The DOW should also follow commodities  down, but also could correct right along with gold.

I have personally warned my two sisters and daughter in what could happen into this fall, so they now whats going on and to make them feel better about my trading in this market. I told them not to worry as I might even make a few thousand on the trip down.

 

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GDX Bear Market Impending Crash Review

For the last 2 years and 3 months of publishing Cycle degree wave positions, not a “SINGLE” wave analyst has expressed any desire to want to switch over to Cycle degree wave analysis. So I will give readers fair warning as I may shut down after this 3 year exercise is done sometime around 2021 or the start of solar cycle #25.

I could stop all wave position postings and just put up a blank charts completely cutting off all wave counts and Cycle degree wave counting will come to a screeching halt, get buried in history, never to rise again. This site is not generating any funds to even maintain it, so this goes to show the lack of interest in Cycle degree wave analysis.

Even though it is the most real money tested wave count in history, viewers don’t even have the minimum of $5000 to start with.

 

I will show you my control entry numbers and what could be done if the planning is in full swing already. $100 shares is pretty lame but these are needed to test the waters and to start accumulating for the bottom. I have done this many times before where I push my trade allocation to the max. 500 shares of GDX below the $8 price will give you a good healthy position of $4000, and $1000 cash held back. The biggest fear factor will always come to play when we don’t have enough cash back up at a 4:1 ratio.

At major bottoms I have no problem with that but at major tops I do. This ratio should be reversed at every major top, play down lite is the name of the game and I use the 80/20 principle for that.   I will add a PDF that I use and then can be used to do all your calculations on for any trades you will ever do. I plan on having a $1200 share plan ready but may add more at the last minute.  All my short bets will be closed off as soon as we get to $8 GDX and the the control entry sequence must already be in place.

Once we know that we are averaged in below $8 then each and every trader feels the same thing connected to all that have at least one hundred share long positions.  We may be in the red but as soon as GDX crosses $8 every one around the world will see green at the exact time they were all online at the same time.  When you see “ALL” your lights go green at the same time as mine do, then this gives us a “green rush” that you will always remember for the rest of your life!

Now imagine we are still below $8 just hanging around watching the gold bulls fall from the sky. The minute you cross above $8 your entire position is already green and we just got started. This is not some fantasy I invented but it happens all the time if your right!  With a potential exit target at $55 your 500 share position in at $8, will cash out at $27,500 in March-May or so of 2019!

Now expand this to where a heavy hitter does the same thing but wants more than just wages, he wants a million dollar cash out, move. That involves 20,000 shares, but then must be shared with GDXJ to carry that kind of a load! You would need about a $160,000 trading account to pull that of. My calculations might be $66,000 USD cash out.  In the end going to cash is our home base when things get rough, or we switch direction. Cash is always the escape plan! 🙂  My plan is to get to an $89,000 base as I can draw out some wages with that and still build. Once you have a $233,000 trading account you generate income when you like, as you have room to spare. I have been paying myself already but only in very small $100-$200 draw downs.

I hope you see the importance of calculating out all your potential before, so there is lots of double checking and calculations that we must do. control sequence.rtfd   is a short PDF with just one suggestion of 5 positions for a control entry sequence. I calculate at least 3-4 of these to make sure you know the total capital outlay of any trade you will ever make.  It can be cloned, and scaled up for bigger amounts or companies.

I’m not an investor but a purely independent thinker that needs no outside indicators to make work. I rely on no other “Expert” opinion to survive in a major market crash and bear market of any kind.

 

 

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Impending Palladium Crash 1980-2018 Elliott Wave Update!

I ask you is this palladium pattern something you should invest in or trade up and down with futures trading. I have to check for the ETF to see if there is one to sell short on. The daily chart has also produced the Death Cross with another well below us on this chart. To be long (bullish position) at the top of this pattern is financial suicide as far as I’m concerned. Since the 1980’s this entire bull market just kept on going, and going, and going, until a little while ago as it seems to have turned a corner already.

How does a $600 Palladium crash work in your investment world?

Pure and simple folks, all commodities “must” be counted from a diagoanl perspective, otherwise what I say makes no sense, and your trades will suffer from performance issues.

When we only go long we are only running at 50% efficiency, so that can be massivly improved by knowing  how to go “short” and “long” when the opportunity arises.

All commodaties run as connecting zigzags, and I feel more and more comfortable in seeing them and counting them out. Like I said I have the largest collection of diagonal wave sructures on this planet and here is another one. Every wave position must be confirmed and wave count maintained and I don’t have the time if the gold market is going to go nuts.

Always remember that the void below our present palladium prices are filled with “SELL” orders as protective stops!

 

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Gold: Cycle Degree 5.0 Eats Investors For Breakfast!

 

In the last week or so my Cycle degree opinion got raked over the coals because of my believe that we are still completing a bottom. I have in that situation many times and I will cover it more down the page.  We are in once in “every” 30 years type of a gold market that will not repeat itself until 2041, and 2071, and 2101!  I think it is imperative that those that follow any EWP understand that some major wild swings are ahead, not trying to be obnoxious, I already have my zigzag impressed into my mind like a picture.  I personally do not need to show one wave position anywhere and I will still trade it, using all my best experiences, to get into a major bottom successfully.

Gold traders and investors don’t mix at all as it is the gold “investors” and stock market “investors” that are going to get slaughtered. Traders don’t lose money in a market crash, we are riding it down and will enjoy some profits as all those waiting for a gold bullish move are going to lose twice as much. Once because the loss of the gold price, and their net worth , second because they wasted another extremely good opportunity as well.

At this point gold has taken out support #1 and is heading down with a little spike, this is what the bottom may look like so you are getting a sneak preview of later this year.

I will not be buying gold trading assets but will stick to GDX and GDXJ as my gold bullion replacement. Besides the gold ETFs will be the first to let us know that a top is coming.  (gold/Gdx ratio) All those that are holding gold stocks because their advisor got them “into” gold, thinking they are looking for wave 5 in Primary degree to unfold.

Being out by only “ONE” degree wave analysts will be out by a mile. Because investors continuously suffer losses in crashes, I will always be a trader at heart. The reason I became a traders is because I suffered severe loses by the hands of investor advice or suggestions in the first place.

My focus is going to be on gold for the rest of the year as shorting is one of my favorite of not missing an opportunity.  With a few more people joining this Cycle degree wave 4 in gold will be continuously tested with real money and GDX.  Any futures traders must do the same thing as with gold future you can bring in astounding “green” returns.

Gold investor are parked on a Death Cross and the daily cross has already arrived and gone. We can see the little knife edge peaking out from the pack and by the time gold falls below $1045 the gold investor will be freaking out as billions will be wiped of the books in a flash. So far so good as my USD short positions will keep riding the gold bear down, and then up again into late spring of 2019. The 2011 peak in gold is not some flimsy Primary degree top, it is a Cycle degree wave 3 top and it’s correction and bear market is “FAR” from  finished. The last thing I want is to see, is my readers get hurt because I didn’t see a $500 gold crash coming.

This Cycle degree zigzag crash I have visualized in my mind, is the same as the one that Robert Prechter counted out in his video.  I see all these Death Crosses forming and I have warned three of my relatives already so they can watch it on the 6 o’clock news channel. Things are going to get ugly fast as the entire world is concentrating on that $1050 support for gold. I do not bet my future on a fricken flimsy “price”, as any real bottom was always $800! Investors are going to find out the hard way and I will not lose a tear drop for their losses!

I have tons to cover and some more trading detail to explain so we can have  good bottom entry with GDX. Everything I say can just be cloned or scaled up for any different capital base, but with $5000 USD being the bare minimum to start with for the Plan “A” trade setup.  I have been waiting for this since the 2011 top as it is my type of a market, wild and crazy!

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Last Of The Bitcoin Postings

This will be my last posting on any Cryptos as I will delete and kill it off later this year. All my efforts will be switching more to the gold market, as that is now constantly tested with real money.  There are no established cycles in Bitcoin, like there is in gold. I can’t make a living trading such a boring market and I never plan on doing anything in this market anyways. Basing a life on a little electronic packet is not my idea of a stable platform. Gold may crash and burn regularly but long term it will never disappear and will always have a $400 crash base even until Submillennium wave 3, in 2101 peaks out again. Between that time, there still will be two cycle peaks to go even in deflation.

I have token Bitcoins that I gave to the local beggar and tips in restaurants, and to family as a gift!

 

I find my Silver Stone far more fun as it is one big 10 ounce coin of pure silver!  I use it to bet between friends. This coin had a $238 CAD price yesterday, so there is value in this coin where owners will not throw it away. I hope to buy more when silver crashes into this fall. So if your bored with Bitcoin then the gold market will provide all the excitement you will ever want.

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