Daily Archives: June 23, 2018

A Look At The Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)

I’m not an investment advisor so my commentary is strictly based on my personal opinions about bubbles and manias. This is not an ETF but just a fund. Calling it a  “Bitcoin Investment Trust” is a real play on words as this sure does not look like a good investment, nor is anything trustworthy when it concerns Bitcoins. The “X” top is not a wave position,  but I use “X” mostly as an unknown factor!  To put it bluntly, “X” means, ” I don’t have a fricken clue what the 2017 peak is.”  If we don’t know what a major top like this is, then chances are slim that any wave count can last more than several weeks before it moves in unexpected directions.  There is lots of volume in this fund, but investing in it will cause nothing but grief, as Bitcoin itself is unstable. Bitcoin also has no track record of consistent cycles like any other commodities have, so this makes it doubly hard to see any realistic wave structures that we can build trust on.

The trend line should be enough to scare anyone away but as usual, manias can be hard to kill off!  GBTC is just pennies away before it reaches a new record low. It’s stitting on the $10 base which sure can produce downside breakouts. I have always said that Bitcoin would have to fall well below the first crash bottom, and I’m sure it will do so soon.  Another 50% drop will get us to the $5 price level, which is the price range that funds and ETFs,  are known to initiate inverse stock splits. Inverse stock splits can have a huge negative impact on investors, so these are just a few other reasons why it’s a good idea to stay away from investing in this specific fund. Investors have been enticed (sucked in) thinking there is a “Pot Of Gold” under the Bitcoin rainbow. Good luck with the treasure hunt, because the end of  the rainbow always moves, taking the treasure with it.

Don’t expect my opinions to be serious as they call this the “New Era”of investing. The world has seen claims of a new era many times, but yet history shows that when a new era arrives, it crashes shortly after.

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