Daily Archives: June 19, 2018

Crude Oil Intraday Crash Update.

Since the peak last month nothing that has happened indicates a correction has taken place except for small counter rallies.  (Mini bear market rallies)  We have to understand any bear market rally is they will determine if we should hold a bullish position or get the hell out. There is nothing more horrifying than think about a bull market that some say is going to $300, but it turns and crashes to $40 or even lower. Bear market rallies in any degree always retrace themselves, so there is no sense in staying, as bear market rallies make for excelent short bets.  The trick is spotting a bear market rally before all others do and I will keep trying to do that as we all need that information early.

Most of the oil bulls do not understand the concept of a bear market rally as they treat anything that goes up as a real bull market. In commodaties and oil specifically is in a big Cycle degree wave 4 bear market, with most of them being giant zigzags. It may take the rest of the summer to play out so expect some wild counter rallies like we just had.

I switched mywave count to another wave 1-2 in Minute degree but ultimatley we need 5 waves down in Minor degree or one zigzag in Minor degree. Any zigzag could form where the “B”wave looks just like another 4th wave rally. These types of rallies would be very hard to spot if we’re not looking for them.  All this trade war rhetoric is just to much for the oil bulls to handle. Maybe $50 billion worth of duties, the markets could handle, but $200 billion, was just too much.

Fear drives the commodities, not some logical fundamental explanation why oil is going up or down.  Sure I can see another world oil glut coming up, but we know that oil gluts are very bullish for the price of oil. The last record oil bear market low was about $28, which technically should be breached again, if the 4th wave peak is on its true location.

My wave counts may make little sense to some, but my oil wave count starts with the 2008 peak. This makes the oil bear market about 10 years old so far. Thinking in 4-5-month steps, we could see September/October with another new record low.  I may be very bearish on oil, but I assure you I will turn very bullish after this 5th wave plays out.

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DJIA Daily Chart Update: Are The Bears Back In Control?

This DJIA chart has not produced any new record highs in well over 4 months and it even has a lower wave 2 then the SP500 has. I treat this low as a running zigzag as they do happen. I stay away from calling anything “truncated” but a low wave 2 means that the market is more bearish than the majority think. The big clue that the last few months is a bearish rally, is the very fact that the rally produced an extremely choppy pattern. This tells me the rally is going against a larger trend, which would be down.

The Cycle degree wave 3 peak is still holding and hopefully it will not be knocked off, as I want my Cycle degree sequences to last for the rest of stock market history.  Eventually, we will get a major stock market bottom that will be another fantastic buying opportunity. Of course the majority will never get it, as they will be ill prepared in what to do when it does hit a major low again.  Wave 3 can produce declines that will stun the majority like dear caught in the headlights. In this case its more like the “bulls” are caught in the headlights as the bears return to shred this bull market psychology once more.

Recently one of my DJIA posts has been published in Market Forum and this is the link to it. This is all very good exposure and I thank the author for posting it.

When this market goes down, many other asset classes will also get dragged down,  just like what happen in 2008. Needless to say I’m bearish until such a time a counter rally is going to be big enough, to force players to reverse their positions.  I’m sure that in the future we will get price forecasts claiming that the DJIA  is going to 5000, 3000 or even 1000.

When all the analysts are in concensus, then this is when the markets will turn and go in the opposite direction. When the DJIA 5000 price forecasts are broadcast far and wide, then it’s a pretty safe bet to call for DJIA to hit 45,000. Mind you it may take until 2029 to play out.

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SP500 Bull Market Or Bear Rally?

Getting tired of this so called “bull market” yet?  This market has been keeping us confused as to what direction it really wants to go. Price is never going to tell us anything useful  becuase if it did, every average Joe and Jane investor would have been buying everything in sight at the 2009 bottom.

Many think this is a bull market because its still  going up in price. The sad fact remains is that there are always bear market rallies at every degree level. If the experts don’t know the diffrenece with a Minor degree counter rally, then they sure are not going to know when a  Primary degree bear market rally is in progress.

The rally for the last 2 months has been frusturating to say the least, but what stands out is that this rally is going against the bigger trend.  I just had to draw in the wedge which is another very useful indicator when used at the right time.  A potential “C” wave bullish phase could be finishing off, so investors are going to find out the hard way about the effects of a bear market rally once it resumes its bigger trend.

There is always a chance one more dash to the upside will happen, but I think this market is running on fumes. The 2550 price level doesn’t have a chance of holding, as any wave 3 declince will just rip through that support range with ease. To confirm any Minor degree run be it up or down, this wave two peak needs 5 waves down in Minute degree to help us identify the location we think we are in.

Not until we get another push to the downside, investors will remain oblivious to the depth of this impending bear market.  If we don’t suspect that a Cycle degree correction is coming then all support forecasts will be useless to say the least. We have to be open to the fact that any opening zigzag requires a 5-3-5 run so we have a long way to go. Another 4 months or so will get us to a potential bottom by September or October. Any counter rally at that time will also produce another fake bull market.  It may seem a bit long in this counter rally but I have no doubt that this could all pick up in speed in a dramatic fashion.

As each stage happens then they all help in pointing us to where we are in the bigger picture. Talking about any move early is the key because after it happens, its pretty useless information. Fears of a depression will be in the news but markets do the opposite of fundamentals like they did in March of 2009.

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